Are We in Bad Shape?

Methinks that the Spooks are getting spooked again, though the Risks be great. Bad English, and bad Spooking! The Reader should know that there are two types of Threat–Open and Closed. The later is Spook heaven, where the Threat level is known, and the avenues of Threat are limited in number and identified. Open Threats are the 32nd level of Hell; nobody quite knows or understands what is down there, but it looks bad! Open Threats cannot be assessed competently for degree of Threat, manner of Attack, or methodology for identification of the Attacking Force. The equivalent in military terms would be a Commander who has open Flanks, insufficient levels of Scouts, and knowledge there are multiple, potential Partisans out there; sort of like Downtown Bagdad today! Threats are too diverse, too complex, and unrecognizable until close to Impact; while surveillance stands functionally useless, as Security elements can cover only a minimal number of the Threat Partisans. The Proscription is to take Two Aspirin, and Call when there is a Flare-Up (the Worried can translate this as concentrating on early Detection Assets with minimal Expenditure on Surveillance assets).

The Trade Deficit is down as recorded here, the one bright spot in Economic News, if it is actually a good thing; rapid Movements in Economics always foretells disaster. The drop in Petroleum imports (5.9% decrease in the Oil bill) vindicates my previous assessment that the Energy Dept. was playing with the March Consumption numbers. Imports were down $200 bn which I have not investigated, but would imagine came in losses to Trade with Canada and Mexico, rather than the desired Chinese reduction. This would indicate that long-term economic contracts have been Downsized to match current Purchase patterns (limiting Inventory build-ups), while allowing the volatile Spot Markets free rein; the former cutting future industrial potential in the United States, doing relatively nothing for the American Consumer Compulsive purchase pattern. We need some bright Econ Grad student to break down the Trade Report, and define the exact non-Oil Sinkholes.

Sweet Crude came close to $126/barrel on the London market at the start of the U.S. Trading Day. Does this sound like a Speculator Push trying to influence American Prices with relatively marginal Quantity transference? A sincere Cut in American Consumption, if it has been existent, will probably drop the Price of Sweet Crude to around $100/barrel when such a Drop is recognized in American markets; remember the 5.9% drop in Oil importation. The American markets are being played by Speculators, and at great damage to the American economy; Production Cost for Sweet Crude remains around $45/barrel. The humor in the entire situation resides in the fact that the current Oil prices can only hurt China, Japan, and the EU worse than it affects the U.S. They have already functionally curtailed their Oil commitment, and still draft too great an Oil volume without immediate chance of further reductions. Americans, on the other hand, have potential to further reduce by almost 20% with strict Conservation measures; something which will be attained with current Oil pricing. lgl