I must always provide access to Arnold Kling because his arguments are so cogent, even when I disagree with him; as I do in this context. I work hard to get my Readers to study both sides of any argument, even if the process is rather boring most often. At least Arnold is never boring. Here Arnold alleges that Sales are a poor vehicle for understanding the stability of small business; this being an argument hard to deny. It is Why I always try to assess planned Production schedules in relationship to past Production schedules for the firms. Arnold will relate if asked that this is an amazing hard thing to assess as well, as most small business remains young business without substantial history. The fact remains that We have to start somewhere in attempt to understand the economy. I wish that Economists relied more on physical volume of Product–numbers of units–rather than dollar translations.
Calculated Risk sees sunshine on the economic horizon. Nouriel Roubini resembles Arnold Kling, at least in the fact that he is too intelligent to be ignored; his analysis of the economy reminds of my present condition where the Operation was successful, though with no real Return to Normal as yet. Here it is a question of old economic activities fulfilling their duties, but without any real growth structure–a lack of robustness. One of the major problems he and I discern stands as no real replacement of goals organization. One hears business management discussing capital investment, new Product lines, and Profit ratios coupled with declarations of desired Product to be sold. No one discusses the widening problem of lack of Consumer Demand, and Shortfalls in Consumer Credit extension. Everyone awaits discussion of How the Consumer is supposed to pay for the extended Sales. By the way, I disagree with Roubini as well in How you generate Consumer Demand; it will not grow by simply throwing more Cash into the economy. What is needed is Jobs, but no one is seriously discussing Job Creation.
I will finish with this Post from David Beckworth, from whom I stole the previous link. I do this because David summarizes far better than Nouriel, giving a glimpse of What will actually happen in the future. Of course, I also disagree with David’s assessment of dropping Treasury yields, finding the greater amount of Treasuries on the market will kept the yields high. No one in truth wants to loan to the Treasury, and do so merely because of the guaranteed yield. The more Paper that exists, though, will insist on greater yield; something which neither Governments or central banks can alter, a greater supply of Product makes it less profitable to invest within. I simply hope David does not get his Christmas Wish, at least not in the form he desires. lgl