How much Economic data is there?

Russians are critical of the Bush Proclamation equating the evil of Nazism with the evil of Communism. Americans spent Years and Lives fighting the Nazis, and the Years of the Cold War fearing threats to their lives and Nation. Russians claim a distinction which does not exist in the Perceptions of the rest of the World. World War II was not simply a War between Democracy and Dictatorial regimes. Democracy would not have won, if the two great Dictatorships had not torn each other apart. This does not alter the fact and nature of either regime, or nullify the survival and success of Democracy. Success should not provide accolades for Repression, or hide the glory of the Victory for Decency.

I am not as sanguine about the economic reports which appeared last Week. Almost nothing about which they discuss is untouched by an increased level of Spending by Government entities. The one aspect which seems beneficial comes in increased business capitalization, but I think this only reflects a lack of Investment opportunity elsewhere. The New Homes Sales data still expresses a high Inventory with little capital assignment to improve the Sales performance; this aspect probably will continue the drying up of Construction capitalization. Exports were carrying the economic performance I have seen, and will have to carry the burden until Demand for Transportation products increases; an indication that the domestic economy needs added Transport. They cite the increase in the Orders for Metals, but I cannot detect where it is going, and expect it is all in Government-financed infrastructure construction–a worse than bad Sign. I really need data on Retail Inventories; if they were in decline, We may be in Trouble.

I would advertize this Post from James Hamilton. It has all the Speculations plus Links to relevant information. James presents a good operational analysis of the Price Elasticity of Oil, but also shows the fallacy of a strict reliance on such analysis. Marginal increases in Demand could not invest such a huge swing in Price, unless the original Price structure was vastly undervalued. The very analysis involved, though, proves that over-evaluation or under-evaluation cannot exist beyond two Accounting Periods; Oil pricing relatively consistent until the sharp Rises over the last eighteen months, so the original Oil prices must be considered economically normative. The rapid Rise in Pricing hardly seems consistent with ordinary Market structure, without real Shortage conditions appearing in daily operations. It is the vast volume of Speculation–my friends! lgl