Pleasantries

Is This the Real Story? Dogheimer (I assure that you don’t know him) insists that it is Gospel, though I possess certain reservations, the worst being the knowledge that such Prices reset completion lasts 7 months (the estimated time necessary to reach a complete Refill of the system–Wellhead through all Consumption, Payment, and Refinance). This means that the full Impact of the Price Rise will not arrive until the beginning of the new Year. The finance of Energy to 14% of GDP cannot be found; the Cash is simply not there to be extracted. Back of the Envelope calculations tell Me that any Payment above 9% of GDP means change of lifestyle for the American Public; Gas guzzlers, Housing Sales, Name-Brand clothing, and Intermediate Retail Products taking the initial Hit, but almost certainly followed by Unemployment. The Big Picture criticizes the European central bank for hiking Interest rates and weakening the Dollar; We must face the fact that the Fed must follow Suit, before both Economies are unbalanced.

I enjoy reading David Smith, basically because it is nice to know Our Brothers across the Water suffer Our same fate. I agree with the Bank of England holding their Interest rates; now, if only the Fed would join them. What bothers Me about all assessments comes in the form that all Economies must enter into declining GDP sooner or later, as Employment Rolls start to decline, or is switched to Environmental concerns out of absolute necessity. I often consider if the last Quarter century has been the aberration, propelled by a forced expansion of the Labor Force in Baby Boomer numbers. The later could cause a Series of Shudder-back recessions through the duration of their retirement (think 2020). It is a pleasant Sunday, now why did I bring that up?

I will leave the Reader with this Gem which incurs fright, but does not explain the horror. Bulk Freight may be one of the most erratic of all economic venues. Freight, whether Ship bottoms, Trucks, Trains, or Airplanes, must be continuous else the price of Shipping will go up, not lower. Partial Loads are the bane of Freight, and Freight venders functionally have to maintain full loads for 12 years to avoid Mortgage refinance. Partial Loads bring equal Costs, but no Income for the empty space; a situation which can eat up all resident value in the existing Mortgage because of the necessary refinance. This devolves into the Shipper eventually absorbing all the Costs of the Carrier, even if the level of Shipping declines. lgl