Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Another Crackpot Idea

People often wonder at How my mind works, and I like to add confusion with cross-signaling wherever possible; here is a Case in Point. I was reviewing John Whitehead’s numbers, and considering the degree of accuracy in his projections. The improbabilities of Averages and concrete data remains pretty well-known (something about Variance in the division process after the gross numbers begin to grow), until I had the Insight that it was all a Tempest in a Teapot, and utilizing the worst extreme of Variance was always the best effort in Economics. It is like unto playing Horseshoes–scream about the One-Pointers, and forget about the Ringers; you will invariably win more Games. This philosophical point determined, I had another great Thought.

Our esteemed Government agency currently sells flight destinations routes to Airlines, limiting in number the total volume of Traffic seen in the Air. I contemplated Whitehead’s style of analysis, and asked myself Why there could not be greater rationality obtained by sale of all Routes, not only for Passenger traffic, but also for Freight; then moving on to place Trucking, Railroads, and Airlines in competition. The Effort would require the analysis of the likely expected economic value of each type of personnel and freight transfer, the variable Cost per Unit of each type of Transfer for such specific element, and the Cost of material transfer from one mode of Transportation to another. One can clearly witness that there would have to be a vast number of Special Permits to cut material transfer Costs, muddled payment accounting, and added inconvenience potential for Those committed to a transfer (here We are talking about added Cost). This enforced competition, though, would reduce Capitalization Costs, maximize Production unit usage for Equipment, and potentially increase economic value for said Transfers, and at greater Comfort.

You will find innumerable Anger issues rising to the fore, coming from lengthy Bus transference between Railheads, or Railhead and Airport. The flow of Traffic will slow, but it will raise Hotel and Motel occupancy rates; increased Local revenues, greater lost Wages from Travelers, and higher Costs to Business of sending personnel around the Globe. The Counterpoint may consist of lessened congestion at Airports, removal of the gigantic freezes at specific Airports due to bad Weather, and a Routing system which puts emphasis on what must be moved as quickly as possible, and what can take a more leisurely route. All of this done at cheaper Cost, and much less Consumption of Transportation fuel. The Concept is so nefarious that no one can ascertain whether such evolution would be an economic gain, or would be an economic loss. Still, it has such potential that Computer models should be built and tested. lgl

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