I would commend this Post to my Reader from Mike Shedlock, who combines much data about Population Growth, Job Growth, and Unemployment rates. His main Contention stands as the lowered Unemployment rate comes from Labor dropping from the Labor Force, rather than an increase in Hiring; 127,000 only leaves us flat on the Employment rate scale. This leads to another Point, which will be the focus of my Post, which questions how effectively economic Stimulus actually generates Production. Here lies the actual dismal science, and I will try to explain How.
I need highly energetic econ Graduate Students who are attempting to make a Name for themselves by writing that brilliant dissertation which Everyone applauds. This is because economic Stimulus has been insufficiently studied and evaluated according to some understandable scale. I will try to explain myself:
1) There is no accurate definition of economic Stimulus; economists known to extend the name to almost every excessive Expenditure make by any Government throughout Time. We need a universally accepted boundary defined as economic Stimulus, simply to be able to quantify the Expenditure. I would rule out any Expenditure which would have been Spent anyway due to political considerations, any Tax Cut or Exemption which would have been implemented due to political considerations, and any grant–like the Fed’s No Interest policy–which is simply response to political pressure from Banking and Wall Street. I want to get to this Gem of great worth which no one defines.
2) The second need consists of a list of economic stimulus grants from 1932 to the Present; a pendant effort, upon which one will find much controversy as economists will debate whether it was natural growth of Government Spending, or actual economic Stimulus.
3) The third part of the debacle must to establish the Employment statistics so that they can be integrated into an economic model expressing the true effectiveness of economic stimulus; complicated by the inclusion of a line of total Government Spending throughout the same Period from 1932 to the Present.
Now I know there has been a lot of good economic evaluation of most of these things in the Past, but I do not know of any combination put together to evaluate the true benefit of economic Stimulus over the Periods where it was implemented through its Expenditure. The later will have to represented as Step graphs of magnitude and length of Expenditure placed over the economic model.
Everyone knows I could not endure the labor, or have the specific Skills, to do such Work on my own. It would lend some young Student immense prestige, though, if he could present a creditable model along these lines, backed by the necessary data. lgl