Many Economists claim a potential turnaround trend, with the GDP growth rate for the First Quarter bound to be revised upward. This Author does not believe this, but he has often been wrong. Here is his rationale:
Retail Sales have been sliding in terms of Real Goods sold, combined with increasing Business inventories and declining Retail Imports purchased at the Wholesale level. Clear Indicators showing that Consumer Demand is cooling! Crude Oil inventories stand at 10% above last Year's level, Gasoline at 5% above last Year's level, and Distillate at 2% above last Year's level. The Author lacks hard numbers, but Household vehicle inventories have increased over last Year, plus the number of People of Driving Age has increased. Higher Gasoline pricing has definitely cut into Demand for the Product. Aircraft Sales recorded during the last Quarter probably(the Author lacking hard information) were only Sale Contracts, with the Product still uncompleted; resources and Manpower to complete the Contracts will detract from later Quarter readings. The Author is still of the opinion that the First Quarter growth rate will be revised downward to below 3%. lgl
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