Saturday, May 28, 2005

Where is Oil Production Going?

Experts: Petroleum May Be Nearing a Peak

A scan of current thought from both sides on the amount of retrievable Oil reserves remaining on a World-wide level. It fails to fully outline all Alternatives to Oil as a energy source, but clearly states transference to alternate energy will require an entire competing infrastructure at immense Cost to the one already in place. It also highlights unproven claims that coal gasification can be achieved for $35/barrel in the massive amounts needed for transference.

Longtime Readers know the Author prefers a liquid Plastic fuel, which can be produced with surface Carbon (Ground Cover, Garbage, Sewage, or grown Ocean and River algae). Nuclear power can provide the energy to produce the Plastic Fuel, while transference only requires conversion of Engines, Pumps, and safe Carburation. This Author estimates surface Carbon collection would require $30/barrel, Conversion of infrastructure would require $20/barrel through the process of total transference, and mass production of a non-stick, Plastic fuel would range about $12-14/barrel. The Plastic fuel (a simple form of liquid plastic explosive with additives to keep it liquid throughout all temperatures) could be safely produced and distributed. It is the only Energy alternative with the possibility of Gas mileage in excess of 50 miles per gallon. Price at the Pump: $2-3 after complete conversion.
Back to the Article:

Oil Production will peak, but it will be slower than expected in the Article, somewhere around 2030-31. We have a lot of time to work on it, but We don't as well. Expanding Oil Production will require heavy Capitalization with resultant rise in Energy price, think $100/barrel Oil consistent past 2010, and Pump prices of $7/gallon past that time. Capitalization of Plastic Fuel production immediately, with 25% reduction in Oil usage by 2020, could create the Pump Pricing: Gasoline--$4/gallon and Plastic Fuel--$4/gallon. Full conversion to Plastic Fuel by 2025: Plastic Fuel--$2/gallon, Oil--only used as lubricants. lgl

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