The Author was playing with the numbers today (he should never do it, and he has a high error rate at numbers-crunching), and he came up with some very depressing Numbers. The monthly Casualty numbers as reported April 5 were 51 American KIA, and 276 total American Casualties. The interesting element about the April 5 numbers was it gave Us the 24th monthly Casualty count.
Distressing data elements start to appear under computation. The April 5 Count of 51 KIA was 101.33% of the average monthly KIA rate of 50.33 per month of Year One, but only 62.38% of the average monthly KIA rate of 81.75 per month of the second Year of the War. Does this mean the War is getting better, or winding down for Americans? The April 5 KIA Count was higher than the actual KIA Count in 11 months of the War, no more than 10 American deaths lower for three more months, and equaled at least half of average KIA deaths in an additional 11 months of the War. The fact that the highest KIA rates occurred in the later 12 months should not please, as it means that the KIA rate had gone up 61.56% in the second Year of the War.
The total Casualty Rate has also increased from an monthly Average of 306.083 Casualties in the First Year of the War, to a monthly average of 768.5 Casualties in the Second Year of the War. The April 5 Casualty Count equaled only 27.40% of the highly monthly Count recorded, but it is not time for congratulations. The April 5 Casualty Count made up 90% of the First Year monthly Casualty Count average, but only 35.94% of the Second Year's casualty Count monthly average. Iraq's guerilla war is expanding, not diminishing!
Iraqi Citizens are dying presently in greater numbers than ever. The U.S. Government has spent over $300 billion in Iraq since the start of the Conflict, remember the poor Official who lost his Job with Bush, because he suggested that Iraq might cost $100 billion? The Author cannot find reliable numbers on the Incident rates against Americans, and the Incident rates overall. The Reader can be assured they have gone up significantly during the Second Year of the Iraq War.
Everyone, since the beginning Build-up to attack Iraq, vigorously denied Iraq had any similarity to Viet Nam. The Author has lived through both Events, and thinks the Denials are foolish. lgl