Monday, August 17, 2009

The Twilight Zone

Is Bruce Bueno de Mesquita right or just lucky? Read this article, and hazard your own opinion. It all revolves around rational actor game theory. My only complaint about this theory consists in everyone’s refusal to turn the analysis upon itself. To wit: How often will rational actor game theory prove to be right under a spread of diffuse predictions? One cannot understand the accuracy of a predictive system without some grasp in numeral terms of its success. The real devil in the mixture is the unknown factor which the potential to skew Outcomes. Unknown factors have in themselves a predictability, and generally range over 20% of likelihood. Dark Horse politicians have a probability of over 40%; they wouldn’t be Dark Horses, if people could watch their development. They generally capture some sentiment among the Body Politic which was previously suppressed, to which they give Voice. It is this refusal to allow new factors play within rational actor game theory that which may defeat it?

Read and Study this Post, and ask Why Part-Time Employment has grown so high this Recession. There can only be one Answer in my estimation, and this consists of a Statement Business has switched to shortened Production schedules, while maintaining as much Employment of trained labor as possible. Some 8.8 million Jobs have switched from full to Part-time employment in the Main, and this appeared more generally in previous full-time employment venues. I have not found much data on the Summer season on the Internet, but estimate that Tourism is unreported basically for reasons that it does not really exist. I might have to go to the trouble of finding the level of air fares taken, the Fill-ratio of Bus tours, and the volume of Gas sold along the Interstates. I probably won’t, though, as I am as adverse to bad News as Anyone.

Here is an article where the industrialized West is damned either way. The decoupling of Asia will always mean some level of disaster for the West, as Asia leaves the realm of markets, and enters the world economic system as Competitors. This will require our source of Resources, a rejection of our Currencies, and Scalpers of our markets. Continued reliance on the West will not extend our markets, where Marketing efforts will always be more costly than Profitable. The whole Scenario brings Us more Pollution, lower-quality Products, and fewer access sources. It is sad that We always expect personal gain from development of the East, when there is so little evidence of any Profits at all to be obtained. lgl

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