There has been some Market volitility today, because of reportage of some Economic Indicators have shown a downturn, foreshadowing a potential slowing of economic performance. There is senseless positioning in response to these Indicators, and this Author feels compelled to provide some Insight (probably wrong).
1) Economic Indicators are compiled by Economists, who have a vested Interest in the provision of good numbers. Poor performance is universally from the high end (the least impactual set which can be reported), while economic performance of sharp acceleration (of potential high Inflationary factors) are reported from the low end (again the least impactual set which can be reported honestly).
2) Economic Indicators must align (all going the same way) for successive periods (the number of Periods, mainly Months, depends upon the uniform spread of the numbers) for a discernable Trend to develop. It is only when a Trend develops, that Market transaction decisions based upon Economic Indicators are truly valid.
3) Economic Indicators remain basically based upon Business Management decisions in Production, Distribution, and Sales. It is these decisions which determine the numbers which will later set the Economic Indicators. Business Management decisions vary dramatically over the Short-term, necessitating the arrival of Trends before effective judgements can be made.
Economics stands as the study of Long-term economic performance. One should be wary, but not scared, of the Preliminaries of the Game. lgl
This Blog will basically discuss economic issues, with some history and political events thrown in. The author is a mix of Conservative and Liberal impulses, with matching Authoritarian and Libertarian trends.
Thursday, June 22, 2006
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Beef, Drugs, and Oil
American beef is scheduled to return to Japanese Retail markets, and Mike Johann's claims Japan will not reinstate any Country-wide ban again; will retain only the power to reject individual shipments of beef. This concession comes only after the fear of American retaliation against Japanese Products became real. The real weight of American Trade is what brought the concession, and Americans need to learn to use Our trade weight.
The AARP, backed by several other non-industry sources, announce a great Surprise: The Drug industry has boosted Drug prices some 3.9% in the First Quarter, the BLS reports of less than 2% mixing Brand-name and generics together to achieve the less inflationary numbers. The Drug industry feels armored, possessing the Proscription D provision that Medicare cannot negotiate volume-purchase agreements at better wholesale prices. This is Congressional prohibition of the use of trade weight. It only adds to the problems of Social Security funding, and does not help the Drug industry in the long-run.
The Saudi minister statement that the price of Oil could triple if the issue between the United States and Iran is not resolved peacefully is again a use of trade weight; it only complicates and solidifies the rogue Iranian position, and the Minister is not America's friend. The United States can live, and even produce, utilizing only 60% of the Oil We now consume; though We would not be friendly with Anyone in the World. This Author is tired of implied Threats being made against the United States.
A more intelligent Administration could work through quiet diplomatic efforts to resolve American trade issues with Our Trading partners. I find myself needful of again eroding Iranian desire to oppose the United States with repellent tirades. North Korea should also take heed. The effective Counter to the Saudi Statement: A 10-Day American Bombing pattern off U.S. Carriers would destroy the Iranian Export balance for 8-12 years. lgl
The AARP, backed by several other non-industry sources, announce a great Surprise: The Drug industry has boosted Drug prices some 3.9% in the First Quarter, the BLS reports of less than 2% mixing Brand-name and generics together to achieve the less inflationary numbers. The Drug industry feels armored, possessing the Proscription D provision that Medicare cannot negotiate volume-purchase agreements at better wholesale prices. This is Congressional prohibition of the use of trade weight. It only adds to the problems of Social Security funding, and does not help the Drug industry in the long-run.
The Saudi minister statement that the price of Oil could triple if the issue between the United States and Iran is not resolved peacefully is again a use of trade weight; it only complicates and solidifies the rogue Iranian position, and the Minister is not America's friend. The United States can live, and even produce, utilizing only 60% of the Oil We now consume; though We would not be friendly with Anyone in the World. This Author is tired of implied Threats being made against the United States.
A more intelligent Administration could work through quiet diplomatic efforts to resolve American trade issues with Our Trading partners. I find myself needful of again eroding Iranian desire to oppose the United States with repellent tirades. North Korea should also take heed. The effective Counter to the Saudi Statement: A 10-Day American Bombing pattern off U.S. Carriers would destroy the Iranian Export balance for 8-12 years. lgl
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
Republicans in Trouble
Republicans in the Senate turned back a Democrat attempt to establish a Committee to review military spending fraud (a like Committee brought Truman to prominance in the 1940s). The Republicans adopted the wrong option, one which will bit them in the rear. Misappropriation of Funds is going to kill the Republicans in the next Presidential election. Misuse of Katrina aid, military mishandling of Contract negotiation and management, Corporate malfesiance in Tax Return declarations, along with Republican ties to the Corporate structure, will wreak havoc come Election time. It will even be embellished that Bush had to cut the Corporate Tax rates simply to get Corporations to bring their Taxable Income home.
Historical study could assist Republicans in understanding exactly where the Threat exists. What Study? The Federalist Party disintegrated basically through their unethical support of Commercial and Business interests to the point that they were perceived as unpatriotic. People might suppose that the Republican Party has a much firmer position than the Federalist Party of bygone Age, but the Federalist Party was the victor of the Revolutionary War, held the Majority in Congress about as long as Republicans have, and actually presented a more sensible program of development than Republicans for American growth. Republicans cannot be seen as hiding Corruption in their own Ranks.
The next Presidential Election will be a crucible likely to destroy aged Parties. Bush will not get Us out of Iraq, having staked his political heritage upon a favorable Outcome there; an Ending seeming increasingly distant, especially if the level of violence does not decrease there. The exciting new Iraqi Government will not be as exciting in a year, without a reduction of the destruction. The Republican Tax initiatives will seem tarnished if Deficits rise, Import Prices increase, there is a disturbance in the International funding of the created Debt, or there is an increase in the rate of Inflation. Russian Steel and Latin American Energy is currently being brought by previous Purchasers of American Treasuries. All of the Above holds real impact for the American lifestyle, the Number One ingredient for the destruction of political Parties. lgl
Historical study could assist Republicans in understanding exactly where the Threat exists. What Study? The Federalist Party disintegrated basically through their unethical support of Commercial and Business interests to the point that they were perceived as unpatriotic. People might suppose that the Republican Party has a much firmer position than the Federalist Party of bygone Age, but the Federalist Party was the victor of the Revolutionary War, held the Majority in Congress about as long as Republicans have, and actually presented a more sensible program of development than Republicans for American growth. Republicans cannot be seen as hiding Corruption in their own Ranks.
The next Presidential Election will be a crucible likely to destroy aged Parties. Bush will not get Us out of Iraq, having staked his political heritage upon a favorable Outcome there; an Ending seeming increasingly distant, especially if the level of violence does not decrease there. The exciting new Iraqi Government will not be as exciting in a year, without a reduction of the destruction. The Republican Tax initiatives will seem tarnished if Deficits rise, Import Prices increase, there is a disturbance in the International funding of the created Debt, or there is an increase in the rate of Inflation. Russian Steel and Latin American Energy is currently being brought by previous Purchasers of American Treasuries. All of the Above holds real impact for the American lifestyle, the Number One ingredient for the destruction of political Parties. lgl
Sunday, June 18, 2006
Radical Solutions
This Author has been skipping through the Econroundtable tonight, studying the commentary of fellow bloggers. My mind slipped a gear again, and I decided to propound some psuedo-Communist, or maybe just pure anarchistic, ideas for betterment of life. I might have been inspired by the Becker interview to be controversial.
Radical Thoughts:
1) It does not matter whether Private Companies are underpaying for monopoly privileges for Toll roads in Indiana or anywhere else. The core of the matter is the loss of MPG in slowing all vehicles for payment of Tolls. Toll Roads are not Energy-Conservative.
2) PAYGO LAWS are always too technical to accomplish anything; simply inform all legislators by Constitutional amendment that their Salaries will be reduced by the same Percentage that the passed Budgets exceed Tax revenues.
3) LOBBYING power can be reduced by simple method: Set a limit which Campaigns can spend for each Contested Election. Voters would pray for a Campaign Budget allowance only granting Two TV political ads per Candidate per Week for only the Two weeks prior to the Election. The political Parties and PACs must also be controled, so every Ad must be attributed and paid by some Candidate's Campaign Budget under the Above restrictions. Who knows, Candidates might go back to listening to Voters!
4) Passage of a Law stating political campaign Contributions will be double-taxed, instead of exempted, could aid in passage of the Above restriction of Campaign Budget size.
5) A final Constitutional Amendment would state that all Tax exemptions, Deductions, Tax Credits, and Percentage rate of Tax must be repassed every Budget to retain validity.
This Author is feeling a trifle paranoid tonight, leading him to wonder if the assigned Assassination teams will have affiliation with Homeland Security, Defense, or only with Corporate Structure. It could be even more drastic, and no one will pay attention to this Post. lgl
Radical Thoughts:
1) It does not matter whether Private Companies are underpaying for monopoly privileges for Toll roads in Indiana or anywhere else. The core of the matter is the loss of MPG in slowing all vehicles for payment of Tolls. Toll Roads are not Energy-Conservative.
2) PAYGO LAWS are always too technical to accomplish anything; simply inform all legislators by Constitutional amendment that their Salaries will be reduced by the same Percentage that the passed Budgets exceed Tax revenues.
3) LOBBYING power can be reduced by simple method: Set a limit which Campaigns can spend for each Contested Election. Voters would pray for a Campaign Budget allowance only granting Two TV political ads per Candidate per Week for only the Two weeks prior to the Election. The political Parties and PACs must also be controled, so every Ad must be attributed and paid by some Candidate's Campaign Budget under the Above restrictions. Who knows, Candidates might go back to listening to Voters!
4) Passage of a Law stating political campaign Contributions will be double-taxed, instead of exempted, could aid in passage of the Above restriction of Campaign Budget size.
5) A final Constitutional Amendment would state that all Tax exemptions, Deductions, Tax Credits, and Percentage rate of Tax must be repassed every Budget to retain validity.
This Author is feeling a trifle paranoid tonight, leading him to wonder if the assigned Assassination teams will have affiliation with Homeland Security, Defense, or only with Corporate Structure. It could be even more drastic, and no one will pay attention to this Post. lgl
Immigration and Pigou
The NYTimes might not recognize it themselves, but they occasionally focus on one issue every Sunday; today being Immigration. Mexico seems to be enduring the same problems on their southern border, as the United States suffers along the Rio Grande. Another article in the Paper suggests 2nd Generation Immigrants do better than native Contemporaries of equal Age--higher Educational levels, etc. It may be time to apply Pigou positive and negative externalities to the issue of Immigration.
Watch as I blend this argument into a review of Pigouian analysis.
Arnold Kling has an excellent comment on The Pigou Club proposed by Greg Mankiw. I have only one reservation: I have heard the argument of positive and negative externalities numerous times, and have always come away unsatisfied with the conclusions. The negative externalities always seemed quite correct, but the argument for positive externalities has always failed in my judgement. The Former does not automatically imply the Later. It might only be an error in my own analysis, but I think the economic model needs to be reworked on a theoritical level. A detraction of worth does not produce a addition to worth when removed. lgl
Watch as I blend this argument into a review of Pigouian analysis.
Arnold Kling has an excellent comment on The Pigou Club proposed by Greg Mankiw. I have only one reservation: I have heard the argument of positive and negative externalities numerous times, and have always come away unsatisfied with the conclusions. The negative externalities always seemed quite correct, but the argument for positive externalities has always failed in my judgement. The Former does not automatically imply the Later. It might only be an error in my own analysis, but I think the economic model needs to be reworked on a theoritical level. A detraction of worth does not produce a addition to worth when removed. lgl
Saturday, June 17, 2006
Unions, Buyouts, and Pay Packages
What a way to start a Saturday!
'Video killed the Radio Starts' and Buyouts and Pay Packages killed the Unions. Neither Statement is true, but both hold some element of Reality. Stars had to acquire a visual presence, and Managers had to learn the elements of a Labor Market. No Demise had yet occured, at least, no funeral services have been held. Delta, though, may be attempting an adrenlin rush for the Pilot unions with its cancellation of Pension plans for Pilots--both active and retired. GM and Delphi may also be helping the crippled UAW with their Chip Shots to sidetrack gurranteed benefits. Union leadership, if not Union membership, should be grateful for the backhanded survival lines thrown by Corporate leadership.
Unions will again gain Power, as Corporate leadership destroys the Good Will of their own Employees. Buyouts started out being a good deal, but increasingly become parsimoneous with hidden addendums activating once the Labor rolls are split and disbursed. Unions should fill the void, by setting minimum standards for Buyouts and Pension alterations across the entire Economy--Workers still need an Advocate! lgl
'Video killed the Radio Starts' and Buyouts and Pay Packages killed the Unions. Neither Statement is true, but both hold some element of Reality. Stars had to acquire a visual presence, and Managers had to learn the elements of a Labor Market. No Demise had yet occured, at least, no funeral services have been held. Delta, though, may be attempting an adrenlin rush for the Pilot unions with its cancellation of Pension plans for Pilots--both active and retired. GM and Delphi may also be helping the crippled UAW with their Chip Shots to sidetrack gurranteed benefits. Union leadership, if not Union membership, should be grateful for the backhanded survival lines thrown by Corporate leadership.
Unions will again gain Power, as Corporate leadership destroys the Good Will of their own Employees. Buyouts started out being a good deal, but increasingly become parsimoneous with hidden addendums activating once the Labor rolls are split and disbursed. Unions should fill the void, by setting minimum standards for Buyouts and Pension alterations across the entire Economy--Workers still need an Advocate! lgl
Friday, June 16, 2006
Winter Canola and Frozen Lobster
The Associated Press had two articles today of much interest to an old Farm kid like me. The Whole Foods chain has stopped selling live Lobster and Crab, opting out for fresh kill or frozen crustesceans. The rationale: dropping the poor things in boiling water alive is cruel and inhumane. This may be a laudable sentiment, but mayhaps, some examination of killing methods may be in order. Submersion in boiling water (sudden thermal transference) by this Author's estimate, probably kills in less than 3 seconds with uniform invasion of heat. Decapitation is unworkable with the exoskeleton. Penetration by a pointed Object provides injury only to a specific locale, with a probable 2-minute interval before final nural cessation of impulse. Death by Freezing is a duration process requiring the slow drain of interior body heat, probably not less than 4 minutes in length. Whole Foods could well be condemning the poor creatures to an even more horrid and painful death. Comment should also be made on Corporate enterprise attempting to alter the dietary desires of Customers without their consultation; there is an element of monopolistic control of markets. The Menu might call for Antitrust action, and pass the melted Butter.
The article on Winter Canola provides a more righteous note: Farmers in southern and western Kansas finally finding a second crop to alternate with Winter Wheat, said rotation actually benefiting both crops, and each with a high Market value. Canola seed can make a good feed for livestock, and the Canola seed oil has potential as Cooking Oil and biodiesel base. The interesting element here lies in its potential as a biodiesel base, because it could turn States further north into double-Crop States with benefit for all Crops. This volume of biodiesel base could allow the United States to imitiate Brazil to a far greater degree than currently possible. And here it all started with something called Rapeseed weed. lgl
The article on Winter Canola provides a more righteous note: Farmers in southern and western Kansas finally finding a second crop to alternate with Winter Wheat, said rotation actually benefiting both crops, and each with a high Market value. Canola seed can make a good feed for livestock, and the Canola seed oil has potential as Cooking Oil and biodiesel base. The interesting element here lies in its potential as a biodiesel base, because it could turn States further north into double-Crop States with benefit for all Crops. This volume of biodiesel base could allow the United States to imitiate Brazil to a far greater degree than currently possible. And here it all started with something called Rapeseed weed. lgl
Thursday, June 15, 2006
Too Many Spin-Doctors?
The latest Inflation reports are bad, but not a total disaster; still, there should be some truth remaining in the data when the Day is finished. I have just read a NYTimes article which stated that year-over-year Core inflation was slightly over 2%. Resurrection of the CBS tag line: Reality Check--the Inflation rate was over 4%, and closer to 5%. Core Inflation figures cannot be utilized in year-over-year evaluations, when the Volitile Product prices have not changed direction, or reduced, over the interval year. Those that contest that We are not in 1966 should realize We are talking about 1967: Military expenditures equally as high, another new Welfare program initiated (Proscription D), a high Inflation rate, and Profit Margins having nowhere to go but down. Manufacturing Orders are up, Unemployment is still high but going down, Commodity prices slowly going down, and a Trade balance reminding of a Friday the 13th movie.
Lowering Unemployment will raise the CPI without much impact from Fed rate increases. Corporate Profit margins of high order will not spur Investment, but Consumption, if there is lack of high-Profit investment in a climate of Consumer belief in loss of purchasing power of the Dollar. Transfer of Government funds to Health Care provision (Proscription D again) will incite a new round of Health Care inflation. Automobile Prices will reverse almost immediately upon a upward trend in Auto Sales. Discussion of Core Inflation will soon be a Lame Duck economic issue.
The real curitive of Inflation is Taxation: a Subject opposed by both President and Congress, to say nothing of State Legislatures. Nothing else will curb Consumption, nothing else will limit Investment to high-Profit Capital ventures. Taxation is the Golden Calf, which Everyone wishes were Iron Pirite. lgl
Lowering Unemployment will raise the CPI without much impact from Fed rate increases. Corporate Profit margins of high order will not spur Investment, but Consumption, if there is lack of high-Profit investment in a climate of Consumer belief in loss of purchasing power of the Dollar. Transfer of Government funds to Health Care provision (Proscription D again) will incite a new round of Health Care inflation. Automobile Prices will reverse almost immediately upon a upward trend in Auto Sales. Discussion of Core Inflation will soon be a Lame Duck economic issue.
The real curitive of Inflation is Taxation: a Subject opposed by both President and Congress, to say nothing of State Legislatures. Nothing else will curb Consumption, nothing else will limit Investment to high-Profit Capital ventures. Taxation is the Golden Calf, which Everyone wishes were Iron Pirite. lgl
Wednesday, June 14, 2006
Interesting Chance
The Fed seemed destined to raise the prime rate again. The next Two months may be the time to evaluate what impact Interest rate increases has in actually raising the Inflation rate. It must be remembered that June and July are the two prime months for Household establishment, as Students leave High School, College, and Home for independent living. There should be a surge of Retail Sales to accomodate this leave-taking, and if there is not, it must be attributed as a drop in Retail Sales overall. Retail Sales were functionally flat in May. Under the condition that Retail Sales do stay equivalently flat (plus or minus 0.5% of Total Sales), then all Inflation must come from Core Inflation increases. Volitile Products in both the PPI and CPI must stay flat or decrease during the Period, in order to get a good picture on how an increase in Lending rates affect the real Inflation in both the PPI and CPI. It may be an excellent opprotunity for an economic model experiment in the total economy.
Conditions may be fortunate for this potential isolation of economic factors. Increase in Prices will be isolated solely to increases in Operational Costs, independent of Commodity increases. We can then isolate into Factor Costs for the Inflation. This will give Us some idea of the impact of Operational Funding Costs. We will have a sustaining force to maintain Sales, potential actual declining Commodity Costs, and isolatable Factor Costs. This may be an opprotunity for this author to prove the Fed prime has adverse pressure on Inflation, when the Prime rate is raised above 3.75%.
This Author has always contended the power of the Fed to control Inflation was constricted to a short range of prime rates between 2-3.75%. Rates set below 2%, or set above 3.75%, actually fueled Inflation; the former rate by generating excess economic activity, the later being itself an impulse pressure of Inflation due to its effects on Operating Costs. We might finally get a definitive answer to that Contention. lgl
Conditions may be fortunate for this potential isolation of economic factors. Increase in Prices will be isolated solely to increases in Operational Costs, independent of Commodity increases. We can then isolate into Factor Costs for the Inflation. This will give Us some idea of the impact of Operational Funding Costs. We will have a sustaining force to maintain Sales, potential actual declining Commodity Costs, and isolatable Factor Costs. This may be an opprotunity for this author to prove the Fed prime has adverse pressure on Inflation, when the Prime rate is raised above 3.75%.
This Author has always contended the power of the Fed to control Inflation was constricted to a short range of prime rates between 2-3.75%. Rates set below 2%, or set above 3.75%, actually fueled Inflation; the former rate by generating excess economic activity, the later being itself an impulse pressure of Inflation due to its effects on Operating Costs. We might finally get a definitive answer to that Contention. lgl
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
Unsettled Times
Did One notice there was little attempt to withdraw the volitile elements from the Core PPI mix today? The reading of 0.3% for May was bad, but even worse, it came from Core Prices with the volitile Prices declining or moving only marginally. Oil and Gas Reserves also happen to be at a 20-year high, while growth in American demand for Oil is expected to rise only 0.9% this Year; remember they still project a 4% growth rate for the Economy. We must be racing to Work on bicycles.
A piece of advise: Core prices has the tendency of being very sticky in comparison to volitile Prices, so don't expect Price reductions on Retail Goods anytime soon. New Hires are at a miserable rate, so We must all be at Work already (hint: the New Hire rate is at about 40% of the Labor Entrants rate). World Markets have followed the descent of American markets yesterday, so it could be interesting to follow the Subscription rate internationally to absorb new American Public and Private debt. I thinks George W. Bush's chickens are all coming home to roost at once (or is that Cows--Texas must be recognized, you know, though maybe George W. has forgotten).
The secret of success may be to end the Estate Tax and cut Capital Gains, but this Author has some doubts; but Bernacke may be influenced to raised Interest rates again. One cannot forget that Business Inventories are rising, except to Retail Goods. This Author has often speculated how many mistakes would have to be made, in order to recreate The Great Depression. Luckily, there are too many inplace mechanisms to allow for such a happenstance--I think. We might be in for a mild Recession, if Chinese demand for Oil declines because of lower Shipments to the United States due to loss of Consumer Demand. We might equally as well be in for the economic Boom of the Ages--well, I kind of doubt it. I've used IT'S A WONDERFULL LIVE before on this blog, haven't I? lgl
A piece of advise: Core prices has the tendency of being very sticky in comparison to volitile Prices, so don't expect Price reductions on Retail Goods anytime soon. New Hires are at a miserable rate, so We must all be at Work already (hint: the New Hire rate is at about 40% of the Labor Entrants rate). World Markets have followed the descent of American markets yesterday, so it could be interesting to follow the Subscription rate internationally to absorb new American Public and Private debt. I thinks George W. Bush's chickens are all coming home to roost at once (or is that Cows--Texas must be recognized, you know, though maybe George W. has forgotten).
The secret of success may be to end the Estate Tax and cut Capital Gains, but this Author has some doubts; but Bernacke may be influenced to raised Interest rates again. One cannot forget that Business Inventories are rising, except to Retail Goods. This Author has often speculated how many mistakes would have to be made, in order to recreate The Great Depression. Luckily, there are too many inplace mechanisms to allow for such a happenstance--I think. We might be in for a mild Recession, if Chinese demand for Oil declines because of lower Shipments to the United States due to loss of Consumer Demand. We might equally as well be in for the economic Boom of the Ages--well, I kind of doubt it. I've used IT'S A WONDERFULL LIVE before on this blog, haven't I? lgl
Monday, June 12, 2006
Silver Lining?
This author just finished reading an article by Michael Mandel justifying the increasing Debt load of both the Government and Consumers. It left me rather dissatisfied with the discussion, though I am quite sure his numbers are relatively accurate. I asked myself why it left me feeling like I was eating dirt.
The Answer came easily: The Article assumed the best of everything! It assumed that the value of the Dollar would stay fixed with other Currencies, no matter what events occured. It assumed that the Aging American population would not bring escalating Costs into the matrix. It assumed the World would continue to absorb American debt. It assumed Imports would not increase in Price, as the World contended with their own rising Living Costs with appended increasing Labor Costs. The Article did not mention any of these elements, but the assumptions were still implicit.
This author is getting just like the Democrats, thinking there should be a law for everything; but, there should be a law stating every Economist should be compelled to provide a Three-Case Scenario: Absolute Worst Case, a Moderate Likely Case, and a If Wishes were Horses Case. This means what would happend if everything went wrong, what is probably going to happen knowing how volitile human endeavor can flux, and what would happen if We were in heaven. The law is highly improbable, but could be a great aid in determination of policy. lgl
The Answer came easily: The Article assumed the best of everything! It assumed that the value of the Dollar would stay fixed with other Currencies, no matter what events occured. It assumed that the Aging American population would not bring escalating Costs into the matrix. It assumed the World would continue to absorb American debt. It assumed Imports would not increase in Price, as the World contended with their own rising Living Costs with appended increasing Labor Costs. The Article did not mention any of these elements, but the assumptions were still implicit.
This author is getting just like the Democrats, thinking there should be a law for everything; but, there should be a law stating every Economist should be compelled to provide a Three-Case Scenario: Absolute Worst Case, a Moderate Likely Case, and a If Wishes were Horses Case. This means what would happend if everything went wrong, what is probably going to happen knowing how volitile human endeavor can flux, and what would happen if We were in heaven. The law is highly improbable, but could be a great aid in determination of policy. lgl
Sunday, June 11, 2006
Family Dinner
This Author attended a family dinner last night, in which I had the occasion to tell one of my Nephews that I was proud of him for what he had accomplished in the third decade of his life. Two Cavets: I should have repeated the same to my Niece and her Husband, and second; while the Nephew posed some problems in his younger years, those problems probably were no worse than my own at that Age. Anyway, Frank, Polly, and husband Hasten, I am proud of you all!
I wish I could express that same pride in the Economists their Age. There remains too great an adherence to defective or lacking economic models and old ideology. The Spend, Spend, Spend formula of the Reagan era is finally being discounted, but probably only due to the Cheney/Rowe modification Spend, Spend, Spend, but only for Corporate Profits. The inheritance from the Great Depression, Free Trade, remains with Us with little modification by the Kids; who ignore the Protectionist methodology of both the WTO and the G8, and only rant about the low Consumer prices, again blind to the decay of American industry. Suckered by the 401k involvement, the Kids still insist the Economy works well, while real American economic advantage is lost by American Products by unreciprocated hidden foreign Protectionist policy. Everyone concentrates upon the Stock Markets, no one highlighting the genuine loss of real labor participation.
The National Debt stands as a golden rope provided by the World, in hopes We will hang Ourselves. The best composite 13 Years of economic performance ever enjoyed by any nation in the history of this Earth, and We cannot fund Our own Government. This the resultant of adherence to a Tax Policy archaic and injurious even in the time of Kennedy; it supplying only Business Profits and Inflation. The current Lobbyist-set Tax policy must be considered as the product of the economically-Insane. Almost All would proclaim this Author is too downbeat, but Who is going to fund the Deficits in coming Years, after Debt Service exceeds the Military Appropiation? lgl
I wish I could express that same pride in the Economists their Age. There remains too great an adherence to defective or lacking economic models and old ideology. The Spend, Spend, Spend formula of the Reagan era is finally being discounted, but probably only due to the Cheney/Rowe modification Spend, Spend, Spend, but only for Corporate Profits. The inheritance from the Great Depression, Free Trade, remains with Us with little modification by the Kids; who ignore the Protectionist methodology of both the WTO and the G8, and only rant about the low Consumer prices, again blind to the decay of American industry. Suckered by the 401k involvement, the Kids still insist the Economy works well, while real American economic advantage is lost by American Products by unreciprocated hidden foreign Protectionist policy. Everyone concentrates upon the Stock Markets, no one highlighting the genuine loss of real labor participation.
The National Debt stands as a golden rope provided by the World, in hopes We will hang Ourselves. The best composite 13 Years of economic performance ever enjoyed by any nation in the history of this Earth, and We cannot fund Our own Government. This the resultant of adherence to a Tax Policy archaic and injurious even in the time of Kennedy; it supplying only Business Profits and Inflation. The current Lobbyist-set Tax policy must be considered as the product of the economically-Insane. Almost All would proclaim this Author is too downbeat, but Who is going to fund the Deficits in coming Years, after Debt Service exceeds the Military Appropiation? lgl
Saturday, June 10, 2006
The G8 Meeting
The G8 continues in the tradition it has always held, much like the WTO: actually maintaining a Protectionist stance to protect their current advantages held. They are being critical of Russia's insistence on retaining the monopoly of Gazprom in the export of Energy resources from Russia. It is highly advantageous to continue this monopoly for Russia, but a deep disadvantage to the other nations. The Energy Interests still wish to invade Russia, to obtain Monopoly control of World Energy Prices. Hint: American and World Consumers should back this Russian effort.
Germany is reluctant to let Russia repay all of it's debt, because of the loss of future Interest payments. Translated: They insist on a higher share of Russian Oil profits. The Russian Government needs simply to pay off the Debt, then ask Germany if it wants to go to War, economic or militarily, over return of initial Funds.
All of G8 remain critical of China for a most definite reason: Chinese continuation of underbidding G8 nations on foreign Contracts within the Third World. So much for the advantages of Free Trade. There is most definitely no discussion of Chinese Labor violations at the G8 meeting in St. Peterberg, a known betrayal of every Labor Standards Agreement ever signed; real discussion of the Labor Violations could potentially make Chinese Imports more expensive. Did Anyone notice how Protectionist Free Traders can become in the face of potential injury to their own Interests? lgl
Germany is reluctant to let Russia repay all of it's debt, because of the loss of future Interest payments. Translated: They insist on a higher share of Russian Oil profits. The Russian Government needs simply to pay off the Debt, then ask Germany if it wants to go to War, economic or militarily, over return of initial Funds.
All of G8 remain critical of China for a most definite reason: Chinese continuation of underbidding G8 nations on foreign Contracts within the Third World. So much for the advantages of Free Trade. There is most definitely no discussion of Chinese Labor violations at the G8 meeting in St. Peterberg, a known betrayal of every Labor Standards Agreement ever signed; real discussion of the Labor Violations could potentially make Chinese Imports more expensive. Did Anyone notice how Protectionist Free Traders can become in the face of potential injury to their own Interests? lgl
Friday, June 09, 2006
The Fed Eye
Bernacke and other Fed officers indicate that the Interest hikes might continue, sending the Markets down. It should behoove Us to examine what type information is bothering the Fed. Consumer non-mortgage loans increased at an adjusted yearly 5.9%. Wholesale sales increased by 1.3% in April. The Trade gap with China, basically composed of Consumer and technological products, increased by 9% to $17 bn in April. Wholesale Inventories grew. Electricity generation consumed some 1.039 billion tons of Coal last year. The entire mix states that Consumers have not been restrained from Spending due to the Interest rate hikes.
Inflationary pressures are building, driven by Oil price which averaged over $57/barrel for the first time. All Signs are green for Inflation to start to accelerate. The Fed, and other Worldwide Central Banks, are getting ready for more Interest hikes, even though the Fed knows its own Rates are too high for effective economic performance.
What is wrong with this Scenario?
The Anwser is simple: lack of adequate taxation. What??? Central Bank Interest Rates are inserted into the Economy prior to the Production Cycle, forcing Business (and Consumer) to treat Interest rates as a Production Cost; One which is also quite effective in generating Inflation pressures. Taxes, on the other hand, are placed on after-Production profits generated. Taxes reduce inflationary pressures by slowing the rate of Investment, and by curtailing the rates of purchasing by Consumers. Economists need to realize that Taxation itself has economic consequences beyond simple Investment expansion.
Passage of Estate Tax repeal sends a far worse economic signal than Fed Interest rates can oppose. Capital Gains taxation should be reinstated with their original rates, along with only Short-term Tax impact delays, if Inflation is to be effectively fought. Conservatives enjoy screaming for Tax cuts, saying it is invariably good for the Economy. This is actually quite untrue, especially with Spendthrift Congress and State Legislatures. lgl
Inflationary pressures are building, driven by Oil price which averaged over $57/barrel for the first time. All Signs are green for Inflation to start to accelerate. The Fed, and other Worldwide Central Banks, are getting ready for more Interest hikes, even though the Fed knows its own Rates are too high for effective economic performance.
What is wrong with this Scenario?
The Anwser is simple: lack of adequate taxation. What??? Central Bank Interest Rates are inserted into the Economy prior to the Production Cycle, forcing Business (and Consumer) to treat Interest rates as a Production Cost; One which is also quite effective in generating Inflation pressures. Taxes, on the other hand, are placed on after-Production profits generated. Taxes reduce inflationary pressures by slowing the rate of Investment, and by curtailing the rates of purchasing by Consumers. Economists need to realize that Taxation itself has economic consequences beyond simple Investment expansion.
Passage of Estate Tax repeal sends a far worse economic signal than Fed Interest rates can oppose. Capital Gains taxation should be reinstated with their original rates, along with only Short-term Tax impact delays, if Inflation is to be effectively fought. Conservatives enjoy screaming for Tax cuts, saying it is invariably good for the Economy. This is actually quite untrue, especially with Spendthrift Congress and State Legislatures. lgl
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
Real Energy Initiatives
This Author read an article today which stated Technology Twicks would allow the internal combustion engine to maintain its supremacy for decades. This may not be a viable Option, if the entire World seeks to adopt the American mode of economic performance. Other Alternative Energy Options would fractionalize Energy production, permenantly insuring no Savings-of-Scale in energy production. An Outline of necessities need be formulated.
Standardized Systems of Energy production remain the only viable replacement of the current systems in usage. What do We need?
1) A viable motor to replace the Semi-tractor diesel engine. This could envision a miniature version of the Train electric locomotive. Another option is to retain the standard diesel engine, but instead of a radiator, use the Steam generated to also propel the Drive train--perhaps replacing all fuel at Stoplight idle. Passenger cars could also use the later technology, if an efficient motor can be devised.
2) Electric Wind Generators will only be economic profitable, if they are small in size and cheaply produced, dependent upon multiple-source generation; large Wind Generators will never produce the volume of generation necessary to substitute for Natural Gas, Coal, or Nuclear power. Multiple units will never function adequately unless Electric companies are legally mandated to provide Maintenance personnel.
3) Fuel Savings will never be gained with traditional vehicles unless Transport and Passenger vehicles are separated. This would demand an interior lane on all Interstates limited to solely Truck Transport, and where the Speed Limit must be maintained. A Law should also provision that Truckers can be ticketed for using other than Interstate travel, when it is available. This would mean Local license, or proven lack of Interstate through Transport load. The Fines must be high to insure compliance.
4) Energy companies producing Nuclear power must pay an amount equal to the Fuel Cost used to the Dept. of Energy, which will be used solely to pay for the Costs of Nuclear Waste disposal.
5) A Profits Law should be enacted to set the amount of Profits to be made from Energy production, based as a percentage of total Capital Costs. Losses must be endured by the Companies themselves, any Profits over 10% of total Capital Costs per year, or 20% of gross Volume Prices sold will be taxed at 100%.
Rationalization can be brought to the Energy industry, if Lobbyist activities can be overborne. Such engines as described need only be engineered from a knowledge base already existent. Provision of Truck route bouys up the Construction industry and employment. Safety is promoted in the separation of traffic. It is time to make real Changes. lgl
Standardized Systems of Energy production remain the only viable replacement of the current systems in usage. What do We need?
1) A viable motor to replace the Semi-tractor diesel engine. This could envision a miniature version of the Train electric locomotive. Another option is to retain the standard diesel engine, but instead of a radiator, use the Steam generated to also propel the Drive train--perhaps replacing all fuel at Stoplight idle. Passenger cars could also use the later technology, if an efficient motor can be devised.
2) Electric Wind Generators will only be economic profitable, if they are small in size and cheaply produced, dependent upon multiple-source generation; large Wind Generators will never produce the volume of generation necessary to substitute for Natural Gas, Coal, or Nuclear power. Multiple units will never function adequately unless Electric companies are legally mandated to provide Maintenance personnel.
3) Fuel Savings will never be gained with traditional vehicles unless Transport and Passenger vehicles are separated. This would demand an interior lane on all Interstates limited to solely Truck Transport, and where the Speed Limit must be maintained. A Law should also provision that Truckers can be ticketed for using other than Interstate travel, when it is available. This would mean Local license, or proven lack of Interstate through Transport load. The Fines must be high to insure compliance.
4) Energy companies producing Nuclear power must pay an amount equal to the Fuel Cost used to the Dept. of Energy, which will be used solely to pay for the Costs of Nuclear Waste disposal.
5) A Profits Law should be enacted to set the amount of Profits to be made from Energy production, based as a percentage of total Capital Costs. Losses must be endured by the Companies themselves, any Profits over 10% of total Capital Costs per year, or 20% of gross Volume Prices sold will be taxed at 100%.
Rationalization can be brought to the Energy industry, if Lobbyist activities can be overborne. Such engines as described need only be engineered from a knowledge base already existent. Provision of Truck route bouys up the Construction industry and employment. Safety is promoted in the separation of traffic. It is time to make real Changes. lgl
Repeat
Yesterday this Author wrote a masterful Piece on the Timing being right for Corporations buying back their Stock. This morning I read that a minority of the Tribune Board opposes their intended Buyback of $2bn of Stock, because of the poor Tax position it would pose for their own Trust organization. The Author finds he must rewrite the lost Post.
1) There are about five real Scenarios for economic performance at any time: Boom, Float, Stagnant, Mild Recession, and Bust.
2) Excess Corporate Stock worsens the Profitability for both organization and Investors under all conditions except the Boom scenario.
3) Corporations overburdened with Stock issuances will devote less funds to both Recapitalization and Investment projects, in order to fund Dividend payments to all Stockholders.
4) This later fact makes the Survivability ratio much lower for Corporation over-capitalized in low-Profit projects, or underfunded in previous Recapitalization accounts, under the conditions of Stagnant, Mild Recession, and Bust. It shortens the duration of the condition of Float.
5) The Market is marginally lower, and most Corporations possess a high degree of liquidity, even if it is only existent Credit. It is perfect weather for Corporate Buybacks.
6) Corporations with an overburden of Stock will quickly impel a Floating Economy into a Stagnant Economy. Stock Overburden throughout the Corporate sector will bring a Boom to an end. Retained Stock overburden will push a Stagnant Economy into at Mild Recession, and easily into a Bust Economy.
It is time for Corporate Buybacks of Stock. They should actually equal the percentage fall of the DOW in percentage of Stock reduction, as long as the DOW falls no more than 8% per month. There will be great resistence from Institutional Investors, who would consequently face an amplified Tax burden which must be paid. Their admonitions should be ignored wherever possible, because failure of Stock reduction can adversely affect economic performance, and hinder severely all Recovery efforts. lgl
1) There are about five real Scenarios for economic performance at any time: Boom, Float, Stagnant, Mild Recession, and Bust.
2) Excess Corporate Stock worsens the Profitability for both organization and Investors under all conditions except the Boom scenario.
3) Corporations overburdened with Stock issuances will devote less funds to both Recapitalization and Investment projects, in order to fund Dividend payments to all Stockholders.
4) This later fact makes the Survivability ratio much lower for Corporation over-capitalized in low-Profit projects, or underfunded in previous Recapitalization accounts, under the conditions of Stagnant, Mild Recession, and Bust. It shortens the duration of the condition of Float.
5) The Market is marginally lower, and most Corporations possess a high degree of liquidity, even if it is only existent Credit. It is perfect weather for Corporate Buybacks.
6) Corporations with an overburden of Stock will quickly impel a Floating Economy into a Stagnant Economy. Stock Overburden throughout the Corporate sector will bring a Boom to an end. Retained Stock overburden will push a Stagnant Economy into at Mild Recession, and easily into a Bust Economy.
It is time for Corporate Buybacks of Stock. They should actually equal the percentage fall of the DOW in percentage of Stock reduction, as long as the DOW falls no more than 8% per month. There will be great resistence from Institutional Investors, who would consequently face an amplified Tax burden which must be paid. Their admonitions should be ignored wherever possible, because failure of Stock reduction can adversely affect economic performance, and hinder severely all Recovery efforts. lgl
Monday, June 05, 2006
Serious and Frivalous
Militias of the Islamic Courts in Somalia finally broke the power of the Warlords, what with the capture of Mogedishu (from the initial reports). This could be more of a problem for the U.S. than was the previous anarchy which existed in the land. Why? The Islamic Court militias were obviously funded from outside sources, and the Warlords ran out of funds with the cessation of American payoffs to the Warlords. The Islamic faction in Chad has also been getting Arms and equipment from outside sources, and have expanded their dominian by the slaughter of Christian villages. Still, why is this a problem for the United States?
The Islamic factions are winning in both Countries, and each will have extreme numbers of unemployed fanatic Veterens, along with great numbers of Mercenaries from the Warlord camps currently or shortly to be unemployed. All of the Above are long-accustomed to the slaughter of Innocents, and at least 25% speak English as well as the average Islamic American. Homeland Security may wish soon that They had the capacity to steal Computer files as skillfully as Those who raided the Veterens Affairs Administration.
Now to the Frivalous:
This Author conceived of a beautiful brainchild today, one bound to anger the Medical profession. All Americans undergo the absolute boredom of waiting in reception areas, and endured the terrible carnage done to personal schedules. I believe Congress should pass into law demand that Medical facilities provide both Computers and Internet Access in all Waiting rooms. I imagine Some believe I am attempting the betterment of life for Americans; but no, I only intend to get the Medical profession as outraged at the Charges for Internet Access as is endured by other Americans. Medical Practicianers remain the worst Scalpers in the Country, they should know how to stop the Price-Gouging of Others. lgl
The Islamic factions are winning in both Countries, and each will have extreme numbers of unemployed fanatic Veterens, along with great numbers of Mercenaries from the Warlord camps currently or shortly to be unemployed. All of the Above are long-accustomed to the slaughter of Innocents, and at least 25% speak English as well as the average Islamic American. Homeland Security may wish soon that They had the capacity to steal Computer files as skillfully as Those who raided the Veterens Affairs Administration.
Now to the Frivalous:
This Author conceived of a beautiful brainchild today, one bound to anger the Medical profession. All Americans undergo the absolute boredom of waiting in reception areas, and endured the terrible carnage done to personal schedules. I believe Congress should pass into law demand that Medical facilities provide both Computers and Internet Access in all Waiting rooms. I imagine Some believe I am attempting the betterment of life for Americans; but no, I only intend to get the Medical profession as outraged at the Charges for Internet Access as is endured by other Americans. Medical Practicianers remain the worst Scalpers in the Country, they should know how to stop the Price-Gouging of Others. lgl
Sunday, June 04, 2006
My Lai and Haditha
Many in the Liberal community are linking the two Incidents together, and charging it is again a Cover-up. My sympathy lay with the Marine Battlion Commander and two Company Commanders who were relieved. The fault seems to reside in the behavior of one Sargent, and his men in Haditha, who begin to assault Civilians without cause. My Lai was the responsibility of inexperienced troops led by inexperienced Junior officers, all of whom were insufficiently briefed; faced with a situation of excess Civilian prisoners when under the belief of being under heavy attack. The chain of command was charged as the major culprit in both instances, and nothing could be further from the Truth.
It is traditional military policy to restrict individual soldier misconduct in-house whenever possible, with the aforeknowledge that Incidents cannot be undone, and repetition must be stopped at their own Command level. My Lai was the fault of inexperience by the military participants; Haditha was the result of overexperience by the ground-level troops in the field. There are real dangers in multi-Tours of Combat duty. Personnel become disenchanted with high Command leadership, witnessing ever-increasing dangers while Command will not alter their stance at the Policy level to reduce their own risk. Confronted by unit losses, often close friends overdoing their share of dangerous risk, the Survivors often break with organizational mandate--which they perceive as getting them killed. Slaughters should be expected under such circumstances, as individuals soldiers and units attempt anything to alter the risk, or make a military difference.
Haditha also possesses another element which must be explored. Examination of the bodies were delayed, an initial count of the victims was not kept, and there is a rumor some of the bodies bore wounds not inflicted by the weapons mix carried by the Marines in question. The Incident at Haditha did take place, but the scope of the atrocity may have been expanded by Enemy forces; to embarass the United States with the ability to condemn American forces. This Author has no association with any of the Investigations of the Incident at Haditha, but would advise some caution in the usage of condemnation. lgl
It is traditional military policy to restrict individual soldier misconduct in-house whenever possible, with the aforeknowledge that Incidents cannot be undone, and repetition must be stopped at their own Command level. My Lai was the fault of inexperience by the military participants; Haditha was the result of overexperience by the ground-level troops in the field. There are real dangers in multi-Tours of Combat duty. Personnel become disenchanted with high Command leadership, witnessing ever-increasing dangers while Command will not alter their stance at the Policy level to reduce their own risk. Confronted by unit losses, often close friends overdoing their share of dangerous risk, the Survivors often break with organizational mandate--which they perceive as getting them killed. Slaughters should be expected under such circumstances, as individuals soldiers and units attempt anything to alter the risk, or make a military difference.
Haditha also possesses another element which must be explored. Examination of the bodies were delayed, an initial count of the victims was not kept, and there is a rumor some of the bodies bore wounds not inflicted by the weapons mix carried by the Marines in question. The Incident at Haditha did take place, but the scope of the atrocity may have been expanded by Enemy forces; to embarass the United States with the ability to condemn American forces. This Author has no association with any of the Investigations of the Incident at Haditha, but would advise some caution in the usage of condemnation. lgl
Bush Woes
Daniel Gross has a good article in the NYTimes today, talking about the low Bush rating on the economy. He attests correctly that good Economic Indicators are based upon Averaging, and essentially refers favorably only to above-average economic performance, while stagnant sectors are hidden. He does not go into the evaluation, but George W. Bush enjoys the same status as Herbert Hoover--doing the politically-correct economic measures of the Business Elite lobbyists, but ignoring the suffering of the common people. There are Those who would claim this equates to a vast distortion, but, in reality, We are talking about perception here--not truth as it translates into popular support.
Unemployment numbers still ignore the Disenfranchised Workers whose unemployment benefits have run out. Bush allowed American industry to offshore, and advanced Tax policy to make such Offshoring more profitable than domestic manufacturing. His administration continues to denude Welfare programs set up by his predecessors, especially those elements directed towards Worker retraining. He has done nothing to constrain Oil prices or the runup of Utilities Costs; this Author is still looking for a national Energy Board, whose sole purpose would be to negotiate for, and purchase, foreign Energy resources--such a Board being the sole entity allowed to import Energy resources, which it would sell on the open Domestic market. I am quite sure such a Board could get foreign Oil down to around $40/barrel. George W. Bush replaces such Activist policy with a hypocritical allegiance to Free Market theory when no one could even imagine those markets are not manipulated by aligned Market structures and vested interests.
This Author feels that the Republican Party will pay drastically for past Sins, the question remains only When? Reality states that approximately Half of the American labor force has seen Living Costs increase by over 20% in the Bush Presidency, while their Wages functionally stagnate. What has the Economists most concerned lay in the fact that an ever-increasing percentage of the Labor force is joining their ranks. I would suggest to Conservative politicians that Reagan has passed into fond memory, and that the dragons approach. lgl
Unemployment numbers still ignore the Disenfranchised Workers whose unemployment benefits have run out. Bush allowed American industry to offshore, and advanced Tax policy to make such Offshoring more profitable than domestic manufacturing. His administration continues to denude Welfare programs set up by his predecessors, especially those elements directed towards Worker retraining. He has done nothing to constrain Oil prices or the runup of Utilities Costs; this Author is still looking for a national Energy Board, whose sole purpose would be to negotiate for, and purchase, foreign Energy resources--such a Board being the sole entity allowed to import Energy resources, which it would sell on the open Domestic market. I am quite sure such a Board could get foreign Oil down to around $40/barrel. George W. Bush replaces such Activist policy with a hypocritical allegiance to Free Market theory when no one could even imagine those markets are not manipulated by aligned Market structures and vested interests.
This Author feels that the Republican Party will pay drastically for past Sins, the question remains only When? Reality states that approximately Half of the American labor force has seen Living Costs increase by over 20% in the Bush Presidency, while their Wages functionally stagnate. What has the Economists most concerned lay in the fact that an ever-increasing percentage of the Labor force is joining their ranks. I would suggest to Conservative politicians that Reagan has passed into fond memory, and that the dragons approach. lgl
Saturday, June 03, 2006
Back Online
This Author has endured the honorable distinction of having his hard drive raped and eliminated by way of the 1200/month Viruses written. A very accomplished Computer guru finally reestablished legibility to Internet communications for myself, even if it fails to do anything for this Author's writing potential. Only Those equally as handy as myself with Computers--hardware and software--can appreciate the relief felt.
More intelligent concourse will be attempted in the near future, but there were people who wondered if I was still alive; I should take a Curses--Foiled Again v. Thank God poll. lgl
More intelligent concourse will be attempted in the near future, but there were people who wondered if I was still alive; I should take a Curses--Foiled Again v. Thank God poll. lgl
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)