Tuesday, January 10, 2006

The Cost of Playing John Wayne

This Author is in the process of reading a academic paper produced by a cojoint effect of two prominent Academics on the Cost of the Iraq and Afghani wars. I cannot cite the Work without written permission, but it can be found at:

It is a vastly important Read for Those interested. I will state I assume the Moderate estimate will be the final Cost of the Wars. I have not yet completed the Paper, but will provide some of my own observations.

Their inclusion of the increase in Oil price must be tempered by the fact that Oil Market pricing was bound to rise since the start of the Wars, conflict or not. They seem therefore to weight the Oil Cost picture too heavily in their micro-economic Cost estimates. The Author has not yet found Cost estimates of Health Care Cost increases into the American economy, which the Author attributes will be 2% per year over the next thirty years; this due to the artificial shortage of trained medical personnel created, causing an overall rise in the Cost of Average American Health Care. They also tend to concentrate on the loss of Productivity of the American Dead and Wounded; this is a definite Cost, but mostly overmagnified by almost all Economists. The American economy has managed to run at marginally Full Production through a series of wars in the Past, and enduring the loss of far greater numbers of Dead and Wounded. The Cost should be reduced by some factor of 3-4 times the lost Wages of the Unemployed and Underemployed during the studied Period.

The Paper is the best the Author has seen so far, and based upon research taken from official Government reports and official citements. The Footnotes are indeed as valuable as is the Work itself. lgl

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