Saturday, June 16, 2007

Ahead of the Curve?

The Big Picture brings Us this Barron’s article by Alan Abelson, who puts forth some critical evaluation of the Fed’s dependence on Core Inflation as both description and camouflage. I equally find fault with this type of Deception, but from a alternate avenue. Bright young Managers, in their enthusiasm for Profits, will finally develop the Thought that it is very profitable to keep their Product prices contemporary with the excluded Products rent from Core Inflation. I added the term ‘young’ because older Managers understand the ‘runaway’ tendencies of Inflation; of course, ‘older’ also means more likely to have made their fortune already. One is asking for Communal Spirit from people taught to employ the slaughter of the Market.

Read this Piece by Chris Dillow, which can be applied to a Manager’s reaction to Core Inflation data, especially Those who may be constrained by a Time Preference. The highest desire of Managers probably comes in the form of autonomy, where they are free of the constraint of Debt. Here is the crux of the Problem. It pays to jump the Herd mentality, at least in the Short-Run, and Managers have been culturally educated to develop independent strategies for success. Dillow’s Conventional Course becomes even less Rewarding to younger Business managers, whose Role Models have always expressed a ruthlessness in attainment of their goals.

Another real factor consists in the Herd mentality of all Business managers. All Economists know that the widely-fluxing Product prices must Seasonally reduce, or Herd mentality will quickly drive all Product pricing to the new Inflationary plateau. It is only a question of Time, and one which enjoys a relatively short Window of Opportunity. The only distinction between full Averaged Inflation and Core Inflation stands as a Statement of what Core Inflation will be at some future indeterminate Date. Business managers, young and older, adjust their Price Schedules to reflect the actual Inflation, not Core Inflation. Economic Forecasts on Inflation would serve greater Insight with a concentration on Estimate of End-of-the-Year Inflation forecasts; an Estimate which could be shaded (lying about) in hopes of inhibiting automatic Price Schedules. lgl

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