Friday, June 22, 2007

Sensible Speculation

I particularly like this Peter Boettke Post which provides links to comparison articles published in The Hoover Digest. Gary Becker attempts to approach the problem of climate change from an microeconomic viewpoint, while Richard Posner attempts more of a macroeconomic sweep, and the Anderson and McCormick article tries a functionalist ‘Let the Market decide’ approach to the problem. All three articles are excellently written, and should be Read. I think, though, I might provide some predisposition to study each article, perhaps to better understand the articles.

Gary Becker assumes a continuity of Social and Economic direction over the next Century; prevailing Thought one Century ago held the component Parts that the Empires of Europe were getting more powerful every Day, gaining Power through scientific advance and the growing integration of Royalty across the Continent. No unsolvable Problems loomed on the Horizon, and the Working classes were rapidly attaining high Living Standards. The Empires of Europe could survive any economic contraction because of their integrated economic base with all the Resources of the World. A check of Economic models of the Era will assure the Economic profession agreed with this basic position. History has proven their assessments to have been flawed, as economies deteriorated in the destruction of WWI.

Richard Posner takes the position that Global Warming can only be the fault of the human race alone, and that exterior factors cannot influence Climate to far greater degree than any human conduct. Reality states that Volcanic activity has always been the major Carbon Emitter on the planet, and is not likely to surrender this leadership in any Time sequence humanity could devise. Geologists should concentrate their efforts on predictions of future Volcanic activity, possibly by historical assessment of such activity by Century over the course of its history. Here is where the principal Estimates should be based. Suggestion that human economic activity should be constrained because of Carbon emissions is premature, though the use of Carbon fuels (limited in quantity at easily retrievable sites) need be contained.

Anderson and McCormick suffer from a common delusion that Climate Change can be countered effectively, any more than Markets can be efficiently regulated. It is my belief, which can be evaluated by scientific Testing, that Hurricanes and Tornados are Nature’s natural way to extrude excess Heat from the atmosphere; one that I believe is a quite efficient Heat Emitter. I wish Business-oriented personnel would not closely identify Carbon Emissions as potential threat, or as opportunity to sell a new Technology. I think the only proper orientation to Green efforts should be in Land Reclamation, where the long-term goal will be an increase of available Agricultural acreage coupled with a vastly increased rate of Carbon sequestration. lgl

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