I hope that my Readers can get more out of this Post from Mish than I have myself, as it is a relative good overview of the economic models; he confusing me somewhat with his length of Post in consideration of his central theme. I do agree that Inflation has arrived for the leading economic indicators much before it has reached the Money. The Recovery seems to be the last man in the race, and I think it is stopping for a Coffee Break. It brings up a Concept which has not been considered by Others: Is there a point where Stimulus is actually counterproductive? What I am implying is the question of whether there are adverse tendencies to Stimulus which overpower the effect of Stimulus; Mike Shedlock presents material suggesting that the impact of Stimulus alters in force quite regularly, dependent upon the amount of Stimulus and exact placement. All I know for sure can be summed up as that the traditional economic models are expressing wayward properties not seemingly tied to actual performance of the economy.
There is always much interest in exactly who will receive the Nobel Prize for Economics, and Greg Mankiw has presented the odds as calculated by Ladbrokes. One may ask what this has to do with the previous paragraph, but the Nobel Commission is as worried about the equity of the economic models as the rest of Us. This being the Case, they are under extreme pressure not to nominate an individual, whose effort will receive future malignment. It reflects the uncertainty of the Times, that there is no clear leader for the accolades. One can ask Why there has to be an annual award, instead of a reward whenever Someone has provided a clear advance to Economics based upon the research. I will state before I am asked that I have no favorite, and think that William Nordhaus or Paul Romer will be the major Contenders.
I ran across this Post after I had written the previous comment, and am somewhat gratified that Others may agree with me to some degree. It is known that the Commission is unlikely to make a controversial choice in this era of exploding economic concepts. I trust in the fortunes of War as well as Economics, and believe there will be more of destruction than actual gain from any choice here, and do not relish any candidate chosen. Reversion to the first paragraph will inform that the Words will always come back to haunt All of Us, and no one can determine the exact point of attack. lgl