Friday, October 30, 2009


You can find supposed Good News about the economy, though I still have serious reservations about the construct of the new information; I attempting to give the best framework of that data. Study James Hamilton’s estimates, and one finds a concentration of Autos and their Parts. Cash for Clunkers might have been legitimate Stimulus, though I still have serious doubts about the actual benefit of the program. We have to have a good Christmas Season, or We will have engendered major debt from all the Stimulus without actual gain. I worry that I am getting too old-fashioned for the modern economy, but hold major doubts about the modern economic engineering. One feels called to ask the Question: Why does a purportedly stable economy require such a Pump?

Read this article from the NYTimes, and ask about the majority of Consumption coming from Autos and Parts to make the good numbers for the latest GDP Report. Here We get the loss of Consumer and Business Credit of almost $215 billion year over year, and Commercial paper possessing a 40% drop for nonfinancial business. This means that not only are Consumers and Business not getting traditional Credit, but that the Investment level has dropped for large Corporations. Maybe I am an old Hayseed who looks at the teeth of horses, but what was the Stimulus beyond the Flash-Bang effects?

This is the type of Piece which makes me doubtful about the final outcome of all the Stimulus efforts. I have to ask how effective are the AP Testing methods, and want to know how much of the projected impact of the Stimulus consists of wishful thinking. The whole picture leaves me somewhat Cold, knowing the tendency of Government to exaggerate their polices, and knowing the heavy impact of the Downturn. No Recovery will occur without at least some Job Replacement, and the latest information does not look Good. I find myself suspicious of claims that We are heading upward again. lgl

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