Low Rates Could Be Around for Long Term
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS
Published: June 27, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/27/business/27fed.html
The Article tries to describe the various theories for low Long-term Interest rates. This Author cannot claim to be a Fed Governor or ex-Fed Governor, but he thinks the rationale for the low Long-term rates results from classic economic principles, not new and exotic properties. A good Poker player will always examine his own 'Hole' card, before betting on the other players' cards.
The American economy still imports more than it exports, with Imports increasing faster than Exports. Outsourcing continues to increase, though American businesses are beginning to bring some of it home, realizing that internal business policy does not vacation well. Real economic investment, except for Housing, seems in short supply. American business since the Reagan era entered into the production of Financial Paper, as well as any Product produced; hereafter known as the 401k Era. This is where We are coming from!
Much of the American Labor force has currently been scrapped to pay a Dividend to the Financial Paper of the 401k Era. Real American economic investment has been in decline, because American Wages cannot pay the Dividend on the Financial Paper of the 401k Era. The Dividend, though, is churning out new funds for Investment. American Corporate stocks and bonds are showing difficulty in maintaining the Dividend for the 401k Era Paper since the American labor has already been laid off, and does not seem like a good investment option. Foreign investment seems risky to many Investors, who eye foreign legal systems with great suspicion. The Holders of the 401k Era Paper are simply dumping investment funds into Long-term Bonds, mortgages, and Treasuries due to lack of alternate investment opportunity. lgl
Monday, June 27, 2005
Sunday, June 26, 2005
Our Workplace
http://www.schneier.com/essay-085.pdf
Attack Trends
Counterpane Internet Security Inc.
A Beginner's Read for understanding what is happening on the Internet. Worms that Google to find proper targets, Black Internet markets which buy and sell Security penetration skills and programs, and even PackageWare to obtain Credit Card numbers with terminal access to the processing Computer. The World is changing, and Hackers are out for your money now.
The new Series of Worms use regular Web visits to picked Sites to define which Spammers will be offered your Web address. New Viruses infect and record Web address traffic on a Computer for a specific time period, before moving the infection outward to those addresses in a package dispatch, then attacking your central processor. New Feedback Worms record and transmit all Steps used by Security programs to contain and eliminate Viruses. A Salvadoran Worm known to this Author effects Terminal access authorization for the originating Computer from the penetrated system through an email message attachment.
New Security procedures will forever alter the nature of the Internet. The Computer of the future will operate only from Hard-Burn Cards, which must be physically implanted in the system--like CDs or DVDs. All Download materials will be Read-Only without possibility of operating code instructions expanding beyond the quarantine area. lgl
Attack Trends
Counterpane Internet Security Inc.
A Beginner's Read for understanding what is happening on the Internet. Worms that Google to find proper targets, Black Internet markets which buy and sell Security penetration skills and programs, and even PackageWare to obtain Credit Card numbers with terminal access to the processing Computer. The World is changing, and Hackers are out for your money now.
The new Series of Worms use regular Web visits to picked Sites to define which Spammers will be offered your Web address. New Viruses infect and record Web address traffic on a Computer for a specific time period, before moving the infection outward to those addresses in a package dispatch, then attacking your central processor. New Feedback Worms record and transmit all Steps used by Security programs to contain and eliminate Viruses. A Salvadoran Worm known to this Author effects Terminal access authorization for the originating Computer from the penetrated system through an email message attachment.
New Security procedures will forever alter the nature of the Internet. The Computer of the future will operate only from Hard-Burn Cards, which must be physically implanted in the system--like CDs or DVDs. All Download materials will be Read-Only without possibility of operating code instructions expanding beyond the quarantine area. lgl
Saturday, June 25, 2005
Mid-Year Forecast
Intelligent people know the foolishness of forecasting. No one remembers a forecast unless it is in error. The Author must admit to his addiction, so here goes:
The Economy, and this extends to the World economy, starts to drift in trouble. Economic development accelerates, but it relies on Oil for energy provision. Oil production stands at relative maximum (understand that Oil production could be doubled, but only with danger to long-term production capacity), and efficient production to achieve Conservation of existing Oil Production plant will require almost a 8-12% reduction in the supply of Oil within the next 36 months. This reduction of Oil supply will probably never be reinstated, though it may only last for 4-6 months.
An undeveloped Country engaging in industrialization can expect an average 6-8% increase in Oil consumption per year, while an underdeveloped Country should expect an average increase of around 2% per year in Oil consumption. Developed Countries should expect declining levels of Oil consumption, as efficiencies occur. Increasing Oil consumption within developed economies means inefficient allocation of Energy supplies (this is true even under conditions of a expanding economy).
Various Forecasts have estimated Oil consumption according to differing methodologies. The Author likes the ones which attempt to determine the Time necessary to double Oil consumption under current practices. Time schedules estimates range from 14 years to about 23 years--the Author likes the Later, because it incorporates almost all development delay factors which tend to suppress Oil consumption.
This knowledge integrated, the direction of the American economy can be studied. The current Housing boom consists of Housing dependent upon vehicular transport for residence. Outsourcing of physical Product demands a Transportation energy Cost which cannot be borne under conditions of reduced Oil production. Students should understand Oil production and supply is not simply a question of higher Oil prices, but remains an Equation requiring numerous variables consisting of Wellhead drilling, actual Pumping rates, transportation facilities to Refineries, actual refining capacity, and final transport to Sales market areas. All these Variables face bottleneck constrictions coming from insufficient geographic feature area, inadequate Capital stock, or the Time delay factor of Production.
Egregious uses of Oil will be the first to face constriction, as necessary Oil usage for economic operation are maintained. This Author actually expects Americans will have to cut Oil consumption by 3 million barrels per day, within the next 36-48 months. The Changeover will be rapid due to Oil Supply bottleneck, and Countermeasures should be enacted as quickly as possible.
A List of Countermeasures:
1) An immediate imposition of a $1 per gallon tax on all Vehicle fuels.
2) Recapitalization of Community Bus and Subway services.
3) Development of an automated Trolley system
4) Development of a National Sales tax based upon one Cent per 100 miles from the Product manufacture facility.
5) A Federal tax on Parking facilities in Cities, Shopping Malls, and Workplaces of $10 per Vehicle entrance which is charged to the Business to ensure non-provision of Parking alongside provision of Community Transport (At worst, businesses will maintain their own busing system).
This is how it must change! lgl
The Economy, and this extends to the World economy, starts to drift in trouble. Economic development accelerates, but it relies on Oil for energy provision. Oil production stands at relative maximum (understand that Oil production could be doubled, but only with danger to long-term production capacity), and efficient production to achieve Conservation of existing Oil Production plant will require almost a 8-12% reduction in the supply of Oil within the next 36 months. This reduction of Oil supply will probably never be reinstated, though it may only last for 4-6 months.
An undeveloped Country engaging in industrialization can expect an average 6-8% increase in Oil consumption per year, while an underdeveloped Country should expect an average increase of around 2% per year in Oil consumption. Developed Countries should expect declining levels of Oil consumption, as efficiencies occur. Increasing Oil consumption within developed economies means inefficient allocation of Energy supplies (this is true even under conditions of a expanding economy).
Various Forecasts have estimated Oil consumption according to differing methodologies. The Author likes the ones which attempt to determine the Time necessary to double Oil consumption under current practices. Time schedules estimates range from 14 years to about 23 years--the Author likes the Later, because it incorporates almost all development delay factors which tend to suppress Oil consumption.
This knowledge integrated, the direction of the American economy can be studied. The current Housing boom consists of Housing dependent upon vehicular transport for residence. Outsourcing of physical Product demands a Transportation energy Cost which cannot be borne under conditions of reduced Oil production. Students should understand Oil production and supply is not simply a question of higher Oil prices, but remains an Equation requiring numerous variables consisting of Wellhead drilling, actual Pumping rates, transportation facilities to Refineries, actual refining capacity, and final transport to Sales market areas. All these Variables face bottleneck constrictions coming from insufficient geographic feature area, inadequate Capital stock, or the Time delay factor of Production.
Egregious uses of Oil will be the first to face constriction, as necessary Oil usage for economic operation are maintained. This Author actually expects Americans will have to cut Oil consumption by 3 million barrels per day, within the next 36-48 months. The Changeover will be rapid due to Oil Supply bottleneck, and Countermeasures should be enacted as quickly as possible.
A List of Countermeasures:
1) An immediate imposition of a $1 per gallon tax on all Vehicle fuels.
2) Recapitalization of Community Bus and Subway services.
3) Development of an automated Trolley system
4) Development of a National Sales tax based upon one Cent per 100 miles from the Product manufacture facility.
5) A Federal tax on Parking facilities in Cities, Shopping Malls, and Workplaces of $10 per Vehicle entrance which is charged to the Business to ensure non-provision of Parking alongside provision of Community Transport (At worst, businesses will maintain their own busing system).
This is how it must change! lgl
Saturday, June 11, 2005
Non-Vacation
This author will be gone from June 12-25 because of a Cousins Reunion in the area of his birthplace. One wonders about the nonsensical desire to return to the old Home. lgl
Islamic Terrorists
Understanding Jihadi Networks
Strategic Insights, Volume IV, Issue 4 (April 2005)
by Marc Sageman, M.D., Ph.D.
http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2005/apr/sagemanApr05.asp
Sageman has the previous Work experience with Salafi Terrorists to compel a rich definition of the Terrorist network structure--undoubtedly accurate. The Jihadi networks utilize the same basic formula as Sects of the order of Jim Jones of Guyana massacre. Membership of Terrorist cells rely on College-educated Males (average age 26 when they join), who possess Occupational or Professional skills, but exhibit little success in their personal endeavors. They are often isolated from their families, where they had previous close relations; many Recruits come from Time spent as foreign Students studying Technical skills away from the close family unit. They turn inward in Group pattern, in a rejection of an alien society. They are a Group banding together, and become ideologically inbred, adopting Spiritual values to escape the apparent lack of success in the alien society (remember they come from above-average Income families in their original Countries).
Sageman rightfully defines the Salafi Terrorists as possessing no real Central leadership since the 9/11 Attack, which led to a Worldwide response fracturing al Quada financial and training organizations. Recruitment to these networks is not as Self-generating as he implies, and depends not upon only localized mosques of perhaps a Dozen, but on the presence of malignant mullahs throughout the Muslim world. These mullahs are embedded throughout Islamic society--whether Native or foreign enclaves--who pressure their contempories not to disavow Terrorists and Terrorism, while preaching a philosophy of hatred. The article, though, is of high quality, and should be read to understand the nature of Islamic fundamentalist terrorism.
Some Quotes:
The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan internationalized the militant Islamist movement. Sheikh Abdallah Azzam preached a traditional jihad against the Soviet invaders. Many militants from all over the Muslim world answered his call. As the Soviets withdrew, Azzam extended the defensive jihad into a more global one. He preached that all former Muslim lands dating back to the fifteenth century, from the Philippines to Spain, had to be liberated from the infidels.
they held intense discussions about their failure to capture a core Arab state and transform it into an Islamist state. Some militants, led by Osama bin Laden, argued that this failure was due to the United States propping up the local regimes.
About two-thirds of those who joined the jihad did so collectively with their friends or had a long time childhood friend already in the jihad. Another fifth had close relatives already in the jihad. These friendship or kinship bonds predated any ideological commitment. Once inside the social movement, they cemented their mutual bonds by marrying sisters and daughters of other terrorists---lgl
Strategic Insights, Volume IV, Issue 4 (April 2005)
by Marc Sageman, M.D., Ph.D.
http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2005/apr/sagemanApr05.asp
Sageman has the previous Work experience with Salafi Terrorists to compel a rich definition of the Terrorist network structure--undoubtedly accurate. The Jihadi networks utilize the same basic formula as Sects of the order of Jim Jones of Guyana massacre. Membership of Terrorist cells rely on College-educated Males (average age 26 when they join), who possess Occupational or Professional skills, but exhibit little success in their personal endeavors. They are often isolated from their families, where they had previous close relations; many Recruits come from Time spent as foreign Students studying Technical skills away from the close family unit. They turn inward in Group pattern, in a rejection of an alien society. They are a Group banding together, and become ideologically inbred, adopting Spiritual values to escape the apparent lack of success in the alien society (remember they come from above-average Income families in their original Countries).
Sageman rightfully defines the Salafi Terrorists as possessing no real Central leadership since the 9/11 Attack, which led to a Worldwide response fracturing al Quada financial and training organizations. Recruitment to these networks is not as Self-generating as he implies, and depends not upon only localized mosques of perhaps a Dozen, but on the presence of malignant mullahs throughout the Muslim world. These mullahs are embedded throughout Islamic society--whether Native or foreign enclaves--who pressure their contempories not to disavow Terrorists and Terrorism, while preaching a philosophy of hatred. The article, though, is of high quality, and should be read to understand the nature of Islamic fundamentalist terrorism.
Some Quotes:
The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan internationalized the militant Islamist movement. Sheikh Abdallah Azzam preached a traditional jihad against the Soviet invaders. Many militants from all over the Muslim world answered his call. As the Soviets withdrew, Azzam extended the defensive jihad into a more global one. He preached that all former Muslim lands dating back to the fifteenth century, from the Philippines to Spain, had to be liberated from the infidels.
they held intense discussions about their failure to capture a core Arab state and transform it into an Islamist state. Some militants, led by Osama bin Laden, argued that this failure was due to the United States propping up the local regimes.
About two-thirds of those who joined the jihad did so collectively with their friends or had a long time childhood friend already in the jihad. Another fifth had close relatives already in the jihad. These friendship or kinship bonds predated any ideological commitment. Once inside the social movement, they cemented their mutual bonds by marrying sisters and daughters of other terrorists---lgl
Friday, June 10, 2005
The Budget
John Irons has an excellent posting and article:
http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=692327
John estimates the current Congress intends to cut current Spending programs by $247 billion within the next five years. Congress follows this with the intention to reduce Tax revenues by $100 billion, leaving a Budget deficit of $168 billion. They want to top their effort with something best expressed by a cropped Quote from John's article:
Estate tax: The House of Representatives voted to repeal the estate tax-a tax that impacts the heirs of multi-millionaires. Currently, $3 million can be passed from a married couple to their heirs tax-free. And only about 1 percent of decedents pay any tax at all. . . The total cost over the first decade of repeal would total nearly $1 trillion.
John Irons estimates a Fix for the Alternate Minimum Tax will lead to $300 billion deficits for the foreseeable future. He has more faith in the Corporate-dominated Republican Congress than this Author, who knows there will be no Fix during the span of this President, or even succeeding Presidents if Republican and Corporate--in that order, with Corporate far more dear to the heart. lgl
http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=692327
John estimates the current Congress intends to cut current Spending programs by $247 billion within the next five years. Congress follows this with the intention to reduce Tax revenues by $100 billion, leaving a Budget deficit of $168 billion. They want to top their effort with something best expressed by a cropped Quote from John's article:
Estate tax: The House of Representatives voted to repeal the estate tax-a tax that impacts the heirs of multi-millionaires. Currently, $3 million can be passed from a married couple to their heirs tax-free. And only about 1 percent of decedents pay any tax at all. . . The total cost over the first decade of repeal would total nearly $1 trillion.
John Irons estimates a Fix for the Alternate Minimum Tax will lead to $300 billion deficits for the foreseeable future. He has more faith in the Corporate-dominated Republican Congress than this Author, who knows there will be no Fix during the span of this President, or even succeeding Presidents if Republican and Corporate--in that order, with Corporate far more dear to the heart. lgl
Energy Efficiency
Assessment of Selected Energy Efficiency Policies
May 2005
Energy Information Administration
Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/aseep/pdf/sroiaf(2005)03.pdf
The document would be more effective if organized in a manner designed to easily transmit data. Basic rundown of viability of Initiatives: Raising the CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency) and the EEPS (energy efficiency) Standards of industry has the greatest benefit; Appliance Standards raising is the second-best alternative; and tax credits offer the poorest option in terms of generation of energy efficiency.
The Problem: Raising the CAFE faces the greatest organized opposition, as vehicle fuel efficiency is extremely difficult to achieve, and Car companies and Consumers (lovers of SUVs) stand in opposition. The EEPS Standard alteration is fairly redundant, as industry traditionally emplace the most fuel-efficient new Plant to be found; the difficulty here is the slow Turnover factor in Capital equipment. Appliance Standards are easy to implement politically, and easy to integrate (study Japanese technology); major Policy proposal: forbid incandescent lighting in appliances and fixtures by 2006 (run fluorescent), and forbid sale of incandescent bulbs by 2010.
Tax Incentives and Tax Credits: Ineffective and will cause great loss of Tax revenue with no Bang for the Buck. Alternative: Introduce Effective-Cost Building permits which increase in total Price concurrent with inefficient building practice.
The Good News: Pollution emissions decrease with energy efficiency.
The Bad News: Current technologies (not matter how efficient) will not reduce Energy dependence on fossil fuels. The Report cites only minor percentage reductions (the highest for Coal of 12% under Case 2). The real need is for totally new technologies! Potential avenues: Solar panel roofing, possibly topped with small roof Wind generators; development of a plastic fuel; Ocean-wave generators; and redevelopment of the railroad system. lgl
May 2005
Energy Information Administration
Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/aseep/pdf/sroiaf(2005)03.pdf
The document would be more effective if organized in a manner designed to easily transmit data. Basic rundown of viability of Initiatives: Raising the CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency) and the EEPS (energy efficiency) Standards of industry has the greatest benefit; Appliance Standards raising is the second-best alternative; and tax credits offer the poorest option in terms of generation of energy efficiency.
The Problem: Raising the CAFE faces the greatest organized opposition, as vehicle fuel efficiency is extremely difficult to achieve, and Car companies and Consumers (lovers of SUVs) stand in opposition. The EEPS Standard alteration is fairly redundant, as industry traditionally emplace the most fuel-efficient new Plant to be found; the difficulty here is the slow Turnover factor in Capital equipment. Appliance Standards are easy to implement politically, and easy to integrate (study Japanese technology); major Policy proposal: forbid incandescent lighting in appliances and fixtures by 2006 (run fluorescent), and forbid sale of incandescent bulbs by 2010.
Tax Incentives and Tax Credits: Ineffective and will cause great loss of Tax revenue with no Bang for the Buck. Alternative: Introduce Effective-Cost Building permits which increase in total Price concurrent with inefficient building practice.
The Good News: Pollution emissions decrease with energy efficiency.
The Bad News: Current technologies (not matter how efficient) will not reduce Energy dependence on fossil fuels. The Report cites only minor percentage reductions (the highest for Coal of 12% under Case 2). The real need is for totally new technologies! Potential avenues: Solar panel roofing, possibly topped with small roof Wind generators; development of a plastic fuel; Ocean-wave generators; and redevelopment of the railroad system. lgl
Thursday, June 09, 2005
Defense Overspending
Arms Fiascoes Lead to Alarm Inside Pentagon
By TIM WEINER
Published: June 8, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/08/business/08weapons.html?
The Pentagon has more than 80 major new weapons systems under development, which is "a lot more programs than we can afford," a senior Air Force official, Blaise J. Durante, said. Their combined cost, already $300 billion over budget, is $1.47 trillion and climbing
research and development spending on new weapons has gone up 77 percent since 2000, and now totals $69 billion a year
Oversight is dwindling, Pentagon officials acknowledge. While the dollar value of weapons contracts doubled over the last decade, the Pentagon halved the size of the work force that polices their costs. The government work of managing the design, development and production of weapons has been largely outsourced to the weapons contractors themselves.
and
May 2005
DOD EXCESS PROPERTY
Management Control Breakdowns Result in Substantial Waste and Inefficiency
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05277.pdf
$2.2 billion{over a Period of Two years lgl} (88
percent) includes significant waste and inefficiency because new, unused,
and excellent condition items were transferred and donated outside of DOD,
sold for pennies on the dollar, or destroyed. DOD units continued to buy
many of these same items. GAO identified at least $400 million of commodity
purchases when identical new, unused, and excellent condition items were
available for reutilization. GAO also identified hundreds of millions of
dollars in reported lost, damaged, or stolen excess property, including
sensitive military technology items, which contributed to reutilization
program waste and inefficiency. Further, excess property improperly stored
outdoors for several months was damaged by wind, rain, and hurricanes.
=========================
Both the Defense Dept. and Congress are beginning to lose it! Generals have developed George Lucas vision, and want Star Wars technology. The Future Combat System is based upon Weapons (18) never before fielded or even designed, with Vehicle armor and weight definitely Jedi in origin. They scrap everything which does not meet the Vision, even though much of the Scrap is better than that possessed by any other military force in the World (scheduled Dates for removal from Main Force of Weapon systems is unbelievable). Weapon systems which provided the United States with success in Engagement after Engagement are not fancy enough for use on the modern battlefield, as defined by the Visionaries.
Cost is going up, Weapons Production efficiency is going down, Weapons Provision finds ever-increasing delays, and Total numbers of Weapons are reducing to the point they will be unable to defend the District of Columbia. lgl
By TIM WEINER
Published: June 8, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/08/business/08weapons.html?
The Pentagon has more than 80 major new weapons systems under development, which is "a lot more programs than we can afford," a senior Air Force official, Blaise J. Durante, said. Their combined cost, already $300 billion over budget, is $1.47 trillion and climbing
research and development spending on new weapons has gone up 77 percent since 2000, and now totals $69 billion a year
Oversight is dwindling, Pentagon officials acknowledge. While the dollar value of weapons contracts doubled over the last decade, the Pentagon halved the size of the work force that polices their costs. The government work of managing the design, development and production of weapons has been largely outsourced to the weapons contractors themselves.
and
May 2005
DOD EXCESS PROPERTY
Management Control Breakdowns Result in Substantial Waste and Inefficiency
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05277.pdf
$2.2 billion{over a Period of Two years lgl} (88
percent) includes significant waste and inefficiency because new, unused,
and excellent condition items were transferred and donated outside of DOD,
sold for pennies on the dollar, or destroyed. DOD units continued to buy
many of these same items. GAO identified at least $400 million of commodity
purchases when identical new, unused, and excellent condition items were
available for reutilization. GAO also identified hundreds of millions of
dollars in reported lost, damaged, or stolen excess property, including
sensitive military technology items, which contributed to reutilization
program waste and inefficiency. Further, excess property improperly stored
outdoors for several months was damaged by wind, rain, and hurricanes.
=========================
Both the Defense Dept. and Congress are beginning to lose it! Generals have developed George Lucas vision, and want Star Wars technology. The Future Combat System is based upon Weapons (18) never before fielded or even designed, with Vehicle armor and weight definitely Jedi in origin. They scrap everything which does not meet the Vision, even though much of the Scrap is better than that possessed by any other military force in the World (scheduled Dates for removal from Main Force of Weapon systems is unbelievable). Weapon systems which provided the United States with success in Engagement after Engagement are not fancy enough for use on the modern battlefield, as defined by the Visionaries.
Cost is going up, Weapons Production efficiency is going down, Weapons Provision finds ever-increasing delays, and Total numbers of Weapons are reducing to the point they will be unable to defend the District of Columbia. lgl
Wednesday, June 08, 2005
Socialized Medicine
Paying a Premium: The Added Cost of
Care for the Uninsured
Families USA Publication No. 05-101
© 2005 by Families USA Foundation
http://www.familiesusa.org/site/DocServer/Paying_a_Premium.pdf?docID=9241
Nearly 48 million Americans will be uninsured for the entire year in 2005.
More than one-third (35
percent) of the total cost of health care services provided to people without
health insurance is paid out-of-pocket by the uninsured themselves.
Through this study, we found that the
remaining $43 billion is primarily paid by two sources: Roughly one-third is
reimbursed by a number of government programs, and two-thirds is paid
through higher premiums for people with health insurance
The Report is a relatively quick and easy Read, which especially Employers should study. It clearly outlines the reality that the Market system does not equitably balance Health Care among Those who need it in this Country. Study of the Premium rates current to 2005 indicate such a balance could never be achieved. The Study states Economists believe that between $65-130 billion is annually lost in Productivity because of lack of health care insurance. A Government-sponsored inclusive health care program is needed.
Governments, though, never do anything right! The Author, therefore, thinks any socialized Medical program should be as decentralized as possible. His Solution proposes each individual State organize its own medical program for all residents of the State. Ordinary medical Costs would be borne by State taxation--equal payment by State businesses and individual Taxpayers. Extraordinary Medical Costs would be borne by the Federal Government, upon Certification of the Medical program of each State. The Later Medical Costs should consist of all Surgeries,chemotherapys, expensive Testing procedures, and complex medical treatments. The Federal Government can thereby regulate the placement and number of treating facilities in each area.
This would be an inclusive, encompassing Health Care system, with all other Government-sponsored medical programs (Medicare, Medicaid, etc) being phased out when States receive Certification for their programs. lgl
Care for the Uninsured
Families USA Publication No. 05-101
© 2005 by Families USA Foundation
http://www.familiesusa.org/site/DocServer/Paying_a_Premium.pdf?docID=9241
Nearly 48 million Americans will be uninsured for the entire year in 2005.
More than one-third (35
percent) of the total cost of health care services provided to people without
health insurance is paid out-of-pocket by the uninsured themselves.
Through this study, we found that the
remaining $43 billion is primarily paid by two sources: Roughly one-third is
reimbursed by a number of government programs, and two-thirds is paid
through higher premiums for people with health insurance
The Report is a relatively quick and easy Read, which especially Employers should study. It clearly outlines the reality that the Market system does not equitably balance Health Care among Those who need it in this Country. Study of the Premium rates current to 2005 indicate such a balance could never be achieved. The Study states Economists believe that between $65-130 billion is annually lost in Productivity because of lack of health care insurance. A Government-sponsored inclusive health care program is needed.
Governments, though, never do anything right! The Author, therefore, thinks any socialized Medical program should be as decentralized as possible. His Solution proposes each individual State organize its own medical program for all residents of the State. Ordinary medical Costs would be borne by State taxation--equal payment by State businesses and individual Taxpayers. Extraordinary Medical Costs would be borne by the Federal Government, upon Certification of the Medical program of each State. The Later Medical Costs should consist of all Surgeries,chemotherapys, expensive Testing procedures, and complex medical treatments. The Federal Government can thereby regulate the placement and number of treating facilities in each area.
This would be an inclusive, encompassing Health Care system, with all other Government-sponsored medical programs (Medicare, Medicaid, etc) being phased out when States receive Certification for their programs. lgl
The Way It Is
http://www.dodig.osd.mil/fo/Foia/ERR/Redacted_oig2004171_shaded.pdf
KC-767A Tanker Program
Report No. OIG-2003-171
Boeing wanted to get in on the economic fuel Cash which Congress was spreading around in 2001, and offered a lucrative job to a current Assistant Secretary for Air Force Acquisition, in order to get in on the Cash Cow benefits in the Y2002 Budget. The currently-deployed Tanker force (KC-135s) were not nearing their Life expectancy (41 years), and actually Maintenance Costs of the current fleet were exaggerated. Boeing and the Air Force Assistant Secretary came up with a Lease Agreement, which would pay Boeing a fortune yearly for little Up-front provision. The full complement of 100 KC-767A Tankers were not to be provided until after 10 years, with Lease rates set to pay for the Aircraft as they were built according to a Boeing schedule. The CBO quickly notes that regular Acquisition policies were not followed in the Request procedure included in the Y2002 Budget, that the Military was not satisfied with the military capability of the aircraft, and that purchase of the aircraft would be much cheaper than leasing the craft.
The real Scandal is not that it happened, but that the Appropriation made it into the Y2002 Budget, even though it required the evasion of standard Defense acquisition policy at numerous levels. This evasion could only come through active intervention of senior-level Management through multiple levels. The real Crime committed comes in that senior officials at Defense, Congress, and White House have retarded the Investigation into Wrong-Doing, suppressing News coverage of the Scandal, and intends to let the Incident pass without any criminal Indictments.
==========================
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2005/06/corporate-pork-lease-v-buy-decision.html
PGL quotes a Washington Post article at Angry Bear about the Lease deal, which will provide much greater insight. It gives some detail on the inefficiency of the commercial aircraft for military use, and describes how Boeing intended to have its Cake, and eat it too. lgl
KC-767A Tanker Program
Report No. OIG-2003-171
Boeing wanted to get in on the economic fuel Cash which Congress was spreading around in 2001, and offered a lucrative job to a current Assistant Secretary for Air Force Acquisition, in order to get in on the Cash Cow benefits in the Y2002 Budget. The currently-deployed Tanker force (KC-135s) were not nearing their Life expectancy (41 years), and actually Maintenance Costs of the current fleet were exaggerated. Boeing and the Air Force Assistant Secretary came up with a Lease Agreement, which would pay Boeing a fortune yearly for little Up-front provision. The full complement of 100 KC-767A Tankers were not to be provided until after 10 years, with Lease rates set to pay for the Aircraft as they were built according to a Boeing schedule. The CBO quickly notes that regular Acquisition policies were not followed in the Request procedure included in the Y2002 Budget, that the Military was not satisfied with the military capability of the aircraft, and that purchase of the aircraft would be much cheaper than leasing the craft.
The real Scandal is not that it happened, but that the Appropriation made it into the Y2002 Budget, even though it required the evasion of standard Defense acquisition policy at numerous levels. This evasion could only come through active intervention of senior-level Management through multiple levels. The real Crime committed comes in that senior officials at Defense, Congress, and White House have retarded the Investigation into Wrong-Doing, suppressing News coverage of the Scandal, and intends to let the Incident pass without any criminal Indictments.
==========================
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2005/06/corporate-pork-lease-v-buy-decision.html
PGL quotes a Washington Post article at Angry Bear about the Lease deal, which will provide much greater insight. It gives some detail on the inefficiency of the commercial aircraft for military use, and describes how Boeing intended to have its Cake, and eat it too. lgl
Tuesday, June 07, 2005
Utility Increasing Block Pricing
DO CONSUMERS REACT TO THE SHAPE OF SUPPLY?
WATER DEMAND UNDER
HETEROGENEOUS PRICE STRUCTURES
Sheila M. Olmstead
Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
W. Michael Hanemann
University of California, Berkeley
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and Goldman School of Public Policy
Robert N Stavins
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
and Resources for the Future
June 3, 2005
http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/research/wpaper.nsf/rwp/RWP05-039/$File/rwp_05_039_stavins_rev.pdf
The Author grew up on a Nebraska farm, and has long worried about the effects of Population growth and supply of Fresh Water. The cited Study is only for the Brave of Heart and economically-gifted.It concludes IBPs do not establish a Consumer response to a Water Supply curve, as some Economists have postulated. The interesting Point in the Study stands as the Researchers could not find a significant Price elasticity among Uniform rate Consumers, but found a Price elasticity among IBP rate Consumers, though a definitive answer for this response could not be determined.
The Study concludes that IBP rates still provide greater economic efficiency, due to greater assumption of the LRMC (Long Range Marginal Cost). The authors do not state as much, but probably accept that Command (administratively imposed) Water Conservation practice has the greatest efficiency. Some Readers are probably lost by this point, so the Author will try to clarify.
Command Water Conservation is costly and probably only about 70% effective in reaching restricted Water usage goals. Economists have advocated usage of IBPs to introduce greater Price elasticity, and Consumer recognition of the Water Supply Curve. Economists theorize such recognition by Consumers would be even more efficient than Price elasticity in inducing Water Conservation. The Study basically finds such recognition statistically not observable. lgl
WATER DEMAND UNDER
HETEROGENEOUS PRICE STRUCTURES
Sheila M. Olmstead
Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
W. Michael Hanemann
University of California, Berkeley
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and Goldman School of Public Policy
Robert N Stavins
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
and Resources for the Future
June 3, 2005
http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/research/wpaper.nsf/rwp/RWP05-039/$File/rwp_05_039_stavins_rev.pdf
The Author grew up on a Nebraska farm, and has long worried about the effects of Population growth and supply of Fresh Water. The cited Study is only for the Brave of Heart and economically-gifted.It concludes IBPs do not establish a Consumer response to a Water Supply curve, as some Economists have postulated. The interesting Point in the Study stands as the Researchers could not find a significant Price elasticity among Uniform rate Consumers, but found a Price elasticity among IBP rate Consumers, though a definitive answer for this response could not be determined.
The Study concludes that IBP rates still provide greater economic efficiency, due to greater assumption of the LRMC (Long Range Marginal Cost). The authors do not state as much, but probably accept that Command (administratively imposed) Water Conservation practice has the greatest efficiency. Some Readers are probably lost by this point, so the Author will try to clarify.
Command Water Conservation is costly and probably only about 70% effective in reaching restricted Water usage goals. Economists have advocated usage of IBPs to introduce greater Price elasticity, and Consumer recognition of the Water Supply Curve. Economists theorize such recognition by Consumers would be even more efficient than Price elasticity in inducing Water Conservation. The Study basically finds such recognition statistically not observable. lgl
Monday, June 06, 2005
Reality Time
Things That Will Happen Before Social Security
Faces a Shortfall
Dean Baker
June 2005
http://www.cepr.net/publications/ss_shortfall_list_2005_05.pdf
Based on current trends, we can expect that by 2052:
· Health Care -- Annual spending on healthcare will have increased by an amount
equal to 12 percentage points of GDP. This would imply an increase in annual
healthcare spending of almost $5,000 per person (measured at the 2005 level of
GDP).
· Prescription Drugs -- Annual spending on prescription drugs will have increased
by an amount equal to 2.7 percentage points of GDP. This would imply an
increase in annual spending of $1000 per person (measured at the 2005 level of
GDP).
· Housing -- The housing bubble will have burst, destroying more than $5 trillion
in bubble wealth created by the temporary run-up in home prices. This translates
into a loss of $17,000 per person.
· The Falling Dollar -- The dollar will have declined by 30 percent or more against
the currencies of U.S. trading partners. This will add more than 2.0 percentage
points to the annual rate of inflation and reduce annual consumption by
approximately $2,000 per person.
· The Criminal Justice System -- The number of people in jail or prison will have
increased to almost 7 million, with the government spending an additional 3.1
percentage points of GDP on the criminal justice system. This projected increase
in spending on criminal justice would be equal to $310 billion a year measured at
the 2005 level of GDP or $1,000 per person.
1 The Social Security trustees put 2041 as the date at which the program will first face a shortfall. In contrast to the non-partisan CBO, four of the six trustees are political appointees of President Bush.
· The U.S and the World (China) -- China’s economy will have grown to be more
than twice as large as the size of the U.S. economy. If it spends the same share of
its GDP on the defense as the CIA currently estimates, then China’s defense
budget in 2052 will be four to six times the level of defense spending that CBO
projects for the U.S. in that year.
· The U.S and the World (India) -- India’s economy will have grown to be one
and a half times as large as the size of the U.S. economy. If it spends the same
share of its GDP on the defense as the CIA currently estimates, then India’s
defense budget in 2052 will be three times the level of defense spending that CBO
projects for the U.S. in that year.
· Animal and Plant Extinctions -- Tens of thousands of species will have become
extinct, most of them due to human impact such as oil and mineral extraction,
pollution and deforestation.
· Climate Change -- The earth’s temperature will have risen by between 1.0 and
4.0 degrees, causing rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and spreading of tropical
diseases into temperate areas.
For the most part, these other trends are receiving almost no attention from either political leaders or the media. Presumably, these opinion leaders view developments like soaring health care costs or plunging home prices as being less consequential than the projected shortfall in Social Security in 2052. It is nonetheless worth noting these trends, since others may assess their importance relative to the projected Social Security shortfall differently.
This Study portrays why there is a limit beyond which Current Trends cannot be used to define Economic Projections. The Author will go through the List, as concisely as possible:
1) Health Care: Costs could not exceed more than 4 percentage points of GDP above its current level (then or now) , without facing extreme Health Care Labor shortage, while actual GDP growth levels would fall because of the stripping of resources from other necessary economic activities.
2) Proscription Drugs are at a traditional extreme High in Cost, and will reduce in Cost in later Years as Patents expire, and current Drugs are as equivalently effective as any further design.
3) Housing will begin to decline in value (bubble or not) because of declining Population. It will be much deeper than $5 trillion loss by 2052. (think $13 trillion).
4) The Dollar will start to regain value against other Trading Currencies, not lose value, within the next 2-3 Years. It has caused more than a 2% Inflation rate in the last three Years (think a workable 6% per Year over the last three Years). What will incite the rise in the value of the Dollar? The World's refusal to fund Federal deficits, American reduction in the use of Oil, and Consumer reduction in the purchase of foreign Goods.
5) The Criminal Justice system cannot absorb more Funds, and therefore will be altered. The greatest Cure would be to alter Sentencing policy to state Convicts must work, must pay for their own maintenance, and must pay to all Costs and Damages inflicted by the Crime for which they were sentenced. They will not be released until all such Costs are paid.
6) China is only a current Trend. China has greater Social Welfare problems than even the United States. China will find it difficult to maintain the economy achieved by 2010.
7) India is in a worse economic state than China, and will either face Warlordism or Dictatorship to reduce Population.
8) Ecology changes while dominant Species survive. Ecological damage must be assessed in statistical terms of impact, not Save the little Furry things!
9) 4-5 billion People will starve to death, if there is a Climate change of 4% in overall Temperature, other ill effects need not be considered. The Ecology also has several Self-saving curatives, a 1% increase in Temperature will increase Cloud density by over 20%, restricting Sunlight heat by about 14%.
Such are the Author's own thoughts on these matters. His opinion may warrant no greater belief than Others, but Outcomes are never certain. lgl
Faces a Shortfall
Dean Baker
June 2005
http://www.cepr.net/publications/ss_shortfall_list_2005_05.pdf
Based on current trends, we can expect that by 2052:
· Health Care -- Annual spending on healthcare will have increased by an amount
equal to 12 percentage points of GDP. This would imply an increase in annual
healthcare spending of almost $5,000 per person (measured at the 2005 level of
GDP).
· Prescription Drugs -- Annual spending on prescription drugs will have increased
by an amount equal to 2.7 percentage points of GDP. This would imply an
increase in annual spending of $1000 per person (measured at the 2005 level of
GDP).
· Housing -- The housing bubble will have burst, destroying more than $5 trillion
in bubble wealth created by the temporary run-up in home prices. This translates
into a loss of $17,000 per person.
· The Falling Dollar -- The dollar will have declined by 30 percent or more against
the currencies of U.S. trading partners. This will add more than 2.0 percentage
points to the annual rate of inflation and reduce annual consumption by
approximately $2,000 per person.
· The Criminal Justice System -- The number of people in jail or prison will have
increased to almost 7 million, with the government spending an additional 3.1
percentage points of GDP on the criminal justice system. This projected increase
in spending on criminal justice would be equal to $310 billion a year measured at
the 2005 level of GDP or $1,000 per person.
1 The Social Security trustees put 2041 as the date at which the program will first face a shortfall. In contrast to the non-partisan CBO, four of the six trustees are political appointees of President Bush.
· The U.S and the World (China) -- China’s economy will have grown to be more
than twice as large as the size of the U.S. economy. If it spends the same share of
its GDP on the defense as the CIA currently estimates, then China’s defense
budget in 2052 will be four to six times the level of defense spending that CBO
projects for the U.S. in that year.
· The U.S and the World (India) -- India’s economy will have grown to be one
and a half times as large as the size of the U.S. economy. If it spends the same
share of its GDP on the defense as the CIA currently estimates, then India’s
defense budget in 2052 will be three times the level of defense spending that CBO
projects for the U.S. in that year.
· Animal and Plant Extinctions -- Tens of thousands of species will have become
extinct, most of them due to human impact such as oil and mineral extraction,
pollution and deforestation.
· Climate Change -- The earth’s temperature will have risen by between 1.0 and
4.0 degrees, causing rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and spreading of tropical
diseases into temperate areas.
For the most part, these other trends are receiving almost no attention from either political leaders or the media. Presumably, these opinion leaders view developments like soaring health care costs or plunging home prices as being less consequential than the projected shortfall in Social Security in 2052. It is nonetheless worth noting these trends, since others may assess their importance relative to the projected Social Security shortfall differently.
This Study portrays why there is a limit beyond which Current Trends cannot be used to define Economic Projections. The Author will go through the List, as concisely as possible:
1) Health Care: Costs could not exceed more than 4 percentage points of GDP above its current level (then or now) , without facing extreme Health Care Labor shortage, while actual GDP growth levels would fall because of the stripping of resources from other necessary economic activities.
2) Proscription Drugs are at a traditional extreme High in Cost, and will reduce in Cost in later Years as Patents expire, and current Drugs are as equivalently effective as any further design.
3) Housing will begin to decline in value (bubble or not) because of declining Population. It will be much deeper than $5 trillion loss by 2052. (think $13 trillion).
4) The Dollar will start to regain value against other Trading Currencies, not lose value, within the next 2-3 Years. It has caused more than a 2% Inflation rate in the last three Years (think a workable 6% per Year over the last three Years). What will incite the rise in the value of the Dollar? The World's refusal to fund Federal deficits, American reduction in the use of Oil, and Consumer reduction in the purchase of foreign Goods.
5) The Criminal Justice system cannot absorb more Funds, and therefore will be altered. The greatest Cure would be to alter Sentencing policy to state Convicts must work, must pay for their own maintenance, and must pay to all Costs and Damages inflicted by the Crime for which they were sentenced. They will not be released until all such Costs are paid.
6) China is only a current Trend. China has greater Social Welfare problems than even the United States. China will find it difficult to maintain the economy achieved by 2010.
7) India is in a worse economic state than China, and will either face Warlordism or Dictatorship to reduce Population.
8) Ecology changes while dominant Species survive. Ecological damage must be assessed in statistical terms of impact, not Save the little Furry things!
9) 4-5 billion People will starve to death, if there is a Climate change of 4% in overall Temperature, other ill effects need not be considered. The Ecology also has several Self-saving curatives, a 1% increase in Temperature will increase Cloud density by over 20%, restricting Sunlight heat by about 14%.
Such are the Author's own thoughts on these matters. His opinion may warrant no greater belief than Others, but Outcomes are never certain. lgl
Sunday, June 05, 2005
Being Rich
Class Matters
Richest Are Leaving Even the Rich Far Behind
By DAVID CAY JOHNSTON
Published: June 5, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/05/national/class/HYPER-FINAL.html
Findings of a NYTimes analysis placed in Article form. Important for understanding of current Tax law, and what this produces.
Notable Quotes:
From 1950 to 1970, for example, for every additional dollar earned by the bottom 90 percent, those in the top 0.01 percent earned an additional $162, according to the Times analysis. From 1990 to 2002, for every extra dollar earned by those in the bottom 90 percent, each taxpayer at the top brought in an extra $18,000.
an Internal Revenue Service study found that the only taxpayers whose share of taxes declined in 2001 and 2002 were those in the top 0.1 percent.
The result expressed is actually much worse, due to the continual use by the Rich of Tax shelters, which protect the SuperRich from Tax rates. The article is critical of the AMT(alternate minimum tax), but this only expresses the impact of Inflation on Taxes, which the AMT does not adjust to cancel. What is actually needed is Tax law and policy which eliminates special exemptions, deductions, and tax credits which reduce the stated Tax rates. Removal of all special consideration Tax advantages would allow ability to flatten Tax rates along with reducing the Tax rates themselves. This would also nullify the capacity of the SuperRich to remove their Income from taxation. lgl
Richest Are Leaving Even the Rich Far Behind
By DAVID CAY JOHNSTON
Published: June 5, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/05/national/class/HYPER-FINAL.html
Findings of a NYTimes analysis placed in Article form. Important for understanding of current Tax law, and what this produces.
Notable Quotes:
From 1950 to 1970, for example, for every additional dollar earned by the bottom 90 percent, those in the top 0.01 percent earned an additional $162, according to the Times analysis. From 1990 to 2002, for every extra dollar earned by those in the bottom 90 percent, each taxpayer at the top brought in an extra $18,000.
an Internal Revenue Service study found that the only taxpayers whose share of taxes declined in 2001 and 2002 were those in the top 0.1 percent.
The result expressed is actually much worse, due to the continual use by the Rich of Tax shelters, which protect the SuperRich from Tax rates. The article is critical of the AMT(alternate minimum tax), but this only expresses the impact of Inflation on Taxes, which the AMT does not adjust to cancel. What is actually needed is Tax law and policy which eliminates special exemptions, deductions, and tax credits which reduce the stated Tax rates. Removal of all special consideration Tax advantages would allow ability to flatten Tax rates along with reducing the Tax rates themselves. This would also nullify the capacity of the SuperRich to remove their Income from taxation. lgl
Saturday, June 04, 2005
Energy Conservation
Japan Squeezes to Get the Most of Costly Fuel
By JAMES BROOKE
Published: June 4, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/04/business/worldbusiness/04energy.html?
This dependence on imports has prodded the nation into tremendous achievements in improved efficiency. France and Germany, where government crusades against global warming have become increasingly loud, expend almost 50 percent more energy to produce the equivalent of $1 in economic activity. Britain's energy use, on the same measure, is nearly double; the United States nearly triple; and China almost eight times as much.
From 1973 to today, Japan's industrial sector nearly tripled its output, but kept its energy consumption roughly flat. To produce the same industrial output as Japan, China consumes 11.5 times the energy.
Japan proves that Energy conservation is Cost-effective and accomplishable. It is unlike Hong Kong, though, as it still allows the die-hard Motorists on the Road. The Article is a Must-Read to understand the current status of Energy Conservation in the World today, but the Reader must understand it is a glossy Report, and does not present the potential pitfalls. You can only go so far!
The United States is a far different matter, with high potential to cut it's energy bill. There are simple ways to save on energy, without widespread suffering by the Population. Here are a few of the Options:
1) Close off intercity traffic, not by prohibition, but by Pricing. Refuse Communities Federal Aid unless they establish City-edge Public Parking and Public Transport. No Motorist can proceed past the Public parking area without a Permit carried in the windshield--$5 for two hours of access, $10 for all-day access. Parking in the Parking arena will be $1 per day. Exit with expired Access permit will be $25. Through-Route traffic must stay on the designated Highway, with a $5 necessary Access permit required for Exit, purchasable at Restaurants and Gas Stations along off-ramps or streets.
2) Communities will establish Public Delivery Services, where all purchased Retail Goods are delivered to the home address, or Parking stall number in the Public Parking area--Cost $1 per delivery.
3) Federal Tax law will be amended to state local area business cannot enjoy any Investment tax credits, unless they devote at least 5% of claimed Investment to Capital investment in the Public Parking areas and Public Transport services--which will be a Cooperative association which is run for Profit.
4) Local area Communities will be allowed to establish Toll booths on Interstate access roads--the toll rate to be $1 per vehicle, half of the Revenue to go to the Communities--less the Wages of Toll booth Workers--and half to Road maintenance of the interstate. Commuters can purchase yearly Access permits for specific Interstate access routes for $20 per year. Transport vehicles can buy universal Access permits for $200 per year.
5) Workers can claim a Public Transport tax credit of $300 per Year, if they can prove purchase of 12 Monthly Access Passes--by presentation of the Passes. lgl
By JAMES BROOKE
Published: June 4, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/04/business/worldbusiness/04energy.html?
This dependence on imports has prodded the nation into tremendous achievements in improved efficiency. France and Germany, where government crusades against global warming have become increasingly loud, expend almost 50 percent more energy to produce the equivalent of $1 in economic activity. Britain's energy use, on the same measure, is nearly double; the United States nearly triple; and China almost eight times as much.
From 1973 to today, Japan's industrial sector nearly tripled its output, but kept its energy consumption roughly flat. To produce the same industrial output as Japan, China consumes 11.5 times the energy.
Japan proves that Energy conservation is Cost-effective and accomplishable. It is unlike Hong Kong, though, as it still allows the die-hard Motorists on the Road. The Article is a Must-Read to understand the current status of Energy Conservation in the World today, but the Reader must understand it is a glossy Report, and does not present the potential pitfalls. You can only go so far!
The United States is a far different matter, with high potential to cut it's energy bill. There are simple ways to save on energy, without widespread suffering by the Population. Here are a few of the Options:
1) Close off intercity traffic, not by prohibition, but by Pricing. Refuse Communities Federal Aid unless they establish City-edge Public Parking and Public Transport. No Motorist can proceed past the Public parking area without a Permit carried in the windshield--$5 for two hours of access, $10 for all-day access. Parking in the Parking arena will be $1 per day. Exit with expired Access permit will be $25. Through-Route traffic must stay on the designated Highway, with a $5 necessary Access permit required for Exit, purchasable at Restaurants and Gas Stations along off-ramps or streets.
2) Communities will establish Public Delivery Services, where all purchased Retail Goods are delivered to the home address, or Parking stall number in the Public Parking area--Cost $1 per delivery.
3) Federal Tax law will be amended to state local area business cannot enjoy any Investment tax credits, unless they devote at least 5% of claimed Investment to Capital investment in the Public Parking areas and Public Transport services--which will be a Cooperative association which is run for Profit.
4) Local area Communities will be allowed to establish Toll booths on Interstate access roads--the toll rate to be $1 per vehicle, half of the Revenue to go to the Communities--less the Wages of Toll booth Workers--and half to Road maintenance of the interstate. Commuters can purchase yearly Access permits for specific Interstate access routes for $20 per year. Transport vehicles can buy universal Access permits for $200 per year.
5) Workers can claim a Public Transport tax credit of $300 per Year, if they can prove purchase of 12 Monthly Access Passes--by presentation of the Passes. lgl
Friday, June 03, 2005
Jobs and Oil
The 78,000 New Hires for May stands as no crisis, but the 5.1 Unemployment rate means a lot; signifying a large increase in Discouraged Workers (fancy term for saying their Unemployment Benefits have run out). The second element comes in Oil, June futures sliding over $54 a barrel for Light Crude, though even the Gasoline stocks are over 1% higher than this time last Year. Another problem comes in the type of New Hires, the majority coming from Health Industry or residential construction. The Former means higher insurance premiums and Welfare transfers, the Later means temporary work tied to the Housing Bubble. It is not an economically bad position for the Economy, but not a good position either!
It reinforces the Author's belief that the American economy needs a Sea change. Americans have been altering the economy for the last thirty years in an endeavor to promote the provision of high-Wage, high-Tech Products to the rest of the World. This Pressure derives from the fact Corporate and Business management is universally College-educated, leading to a reciprocal desire to hire only College-educated personnel in their productive effort. This incites concentration on the high-Wage, high-Tech Products; which will provide the Profits to pay the higher Wage scales of College-educated Labor. There is only one problem with this scenario: Neither American or Foreign markets need the Productive capacity which such orientation of the Economy can produce.
The Trade deficit will continue until the American economy evolves into an economy which can produce the majority of Products that Americans consume. The pursuit of Six-Figure Incomes for Jobs will not produce those Jobs, or will they reduce Welfare transfers, the Trade deficit, and the Government deficit. New Jobs have to be created within the $30-50k range!! This has to come about with an actual reduction of Fuel consumption. lgl
It reinforces the Author's belief that the American economy needs a Sea change. Americans have been altering the economy for the last thirty years in an endeavor to promote the provision of high-Wage, high-Tech Products to the rest of the World. This Pressure derives from the fact Corporate and Business management is universally College-educated, leading to a reciprocal desire to hire only College-educated personnel in their productive effort. This incites concentration on the high-Wage, high-Tech Products; which will provide the Profits to pay the higher Wage scales of College-educated Labor. There is only one problem with this scenario: Neither American or Foreign markets need the Productive capacity which such orientation of the Economy can produce.
The Trade deficit will continue until the American economy evolves into an economy which can produce the majority of Products that Americans consume. The pursuit of Six-Figure Incomes for Jobs will not produce those Jobs, or will they reduce Welfare transfers, the Trade deficit, and the Government deficit. New Jobs have to be created within the $30-50k range!! This has to come about with an actual reduction of Fuel consumption. lgl
Wednesday, June 01, 2005
PBGC
PRIVATE PENSIONS
Recent Experiences of Large Defined
Benefit Plans Illustrate Weaknesses in
Funding Rules
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05294.pdf
The GAO Findings were predictable, though much regretted. Some 62.5% of Sponsors are not making yearly cash contributions, through the use of Plan accounting procedures (FSA) to assert that equivalent contribution has been made into the Fund. The trouble comes in their declaration of the highest Interest rates of return on Funds, along with prior Year contributions, all when the Funds, themselves, are underfunded--over half sampled where Funds are less than 90% capitalized.
The additional funding charge (AFC) lacks real power, where they are applied because the Sponsors did not make a cash contribution in the Year the AFC was assessed while the Fund is less than 80% funded. Current Reporting procedures lack transparency and probably understate the underfunding of the Plans. This combined with the use of FSAs propel the chronic underfunding.
Fund Service Accounting (FSA) procedures were allowed by Congress to promote flexibility in funding of Pensions (Obstensible goal), but are used in practice to evade Funding obligations by Sponsors. FSAs resemble the Tax credits granted to Business during the later Bush Years, but provide far greater damage.
Prognosis: The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation will fail, if current practice is allowed. Obligations will continue to pile up, as Sponsors renege on their commitments.
The only safeguard to Pension Benefits is forcing Sponsors to make cash contribution of realizable gain of full funding (full Benefits within the year range of predicted retirement) each Year, without recourse to Credits from prior contribution Years. There is a limit to how many, and what, incentives should be granted to promote economic growth. Pension Benefits are a Third Rail, funded only with great difficulty at later Date. lgl
Recent Experiences of Large Defined
Benefit Plans Illustrate Weaknesses in
Funding Rules
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05294.pdf
The GAO Findings were predictable, though much regretted. Some 62.5% of Sponsors are not making yearly cash contributions, through the use of Plan accounting procedures (FSA) to assert that equivalent contribution has been made into the Fund. The trouble comes in their declaration of the highest Interest rates of return on Funds, along with prior Year contributions, all when the Funds, themselves, are underfunded--over half sampled where Funds are less than 90% capitalized.
The additional funding charge (AFC) lacks real power, where they are applied because the Sponsors did not make a cash contribution in the Year the AFC was assessed while the Fund is less than 80% funded. Current Reporting procedures lack transparency and probably understate the underfunding of the Plans. This combined with the use of FSAs propel the chronic underfunding.
Fund Service Accounting (FSA) procedures were allowed by Congress to promote flexibility in funding of Pensions (Obstensible goal), but are used in practice to evade Funding obligations by Sponsors. FSAs resemble the Tax credits granted to Business during the later Bush Years, but provide far greater damage.
Prognosis: The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation will fail, if current practice is allowed. Obligations will continue to pile up, as Sponsors renege on their commitments.
The only safeguard to Pension Benefits is forcing Sponsors to make cash contribution of realizable gain of full funding (full Benefits within the year range of predicted retirement) each Year, without recourse to Credits from prior contribution Years. There is a limit to how many, and what, incentives should be granted to promote economic growth. Pension Benefits are a Third Rail, funded only with great difficulty at later Date. lgl
Long-Haul Trucking
The U.S. Truck Driver Shortage:
Analysis and Forecasts
PREPARED FOR:
American Trucking Associations
BY:
Global Insight, Inc.
May 2005
http://www.truckline.com/NR/rdonlyres/EFEEB145-58B7-4C1A-AE19-33BED578D7AF/0/ATADriverShortageStudy05.pdf
Sound expression of the Labor shortage which will retard the American economy with the retirement of the Baby-Boomers. The Analysis based most projections upon statistics derived from several Sources, but using the primary base of The Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projection of the Bureau of Labor Statistic. They estimate 1.3 million long-haul Truckers were on the Road in 2004, and that there will need to be 320,000 more before 2014, if the Economy maintains a 3% Growth rate over the next 10 years.
The Study outlines how the demographics are against the necessary increase in Trucker numbers, citing the need to hire 219,000 new Truckers to replace the scheduled retiring Workers (this not being an Occupation where hiring elderly Workers is viable). It states industry analysts regularly suggested the average Trucker Income must increase from the mid-$40k to about $65k.
There is good news and bad news to all this. The good news states there is Employment opportunity for laid-off Construction labor, if the Housing Bubble bursts--even Today, with a already-present 20k Trucker shortage. The bad news comes in several parts: the Trucking industry will face both above-level Labor Costs and Fuel Costs; the Fuel Usage for 320k more long-haul drivers raises Consumption an additional 4 million+ gallons (Guess-estimate) per Day, something current Refining production cannot supply; and increased Freight charges alongside Labor shortages, will throw the Projections for Economic Growth of 3% per year for the American economy out of the window. lgl
Analysis and Forecasts
PREPARED FOR:
American Trucking Associations
BY:
Global Insight, Inc.
May 2005
http://www.truckline.com/NR/rdonlyres/EFEEB145-58B7-4C1A-AE19-33BED578D7AF/0/ATADriverShortageStudy05.pdf
Sound expression of the Labor shortage which will retard the American economy with the retirement of the Baby-Boomers. The Analysis based most projections upon statistics derived from several Sources, but using the primary base of The Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projection of the Bureau of Labor Statistic. They estimate 1.3 million long-haul Truckers were on the Road in 2004, and that there will need to be 320,000 more before 2014, if the Economy maintains a 3% Growth rate over the next 10 years.
The Study outlines how the demographics are against the necessary increase in Trucker numbers, citing the need to hire 219,000 new Truckers to replace the scheduled retiring Workers (this not being an Occupation where hiring elderly Workers is viable). It states industry analysts regularly suggested the average Trucker Income must increase from the mid-$40k to about $65k.
There is good news and bad news to all this. The good news states there is Employment opportunity for laid-off Construction labor, if the Housing Bubble bursts--even Today, with a already-present 20k Trucker shortage. The bad news comes in several parts: the Trucking industry will face both above-level Labor Costs and Fuel Costs; the Fuel Usage for 320k more long-haul drivers raises Consumption an additional 4 million+ gallons (Guess-estimate) per Day, something current Refining production cannot supply; and increased Freight charges alongside Labor shortages, will throw the Projections for Economic Growth of 3% per year for the American economy out of the window. lgl
Tuesday, May 31, 2005
Emergency Rooms
For the truly bored at heart:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ad/ad358.pdf
It is the latest ambulance Care Medical Survey. It is packed with a wealth of statistics and Tables, sufficient to numb the most brazen mind. It has only a few problems, like they don't use the same language as humanity, but it give a clear picture of Emergency Health Care today.
From 1993 to 2003, the number of ED visits increased from 90.3 million to 113.9 million visits annually (up 26 percent). This represents an average increase of more than 2 million visits per year. The number of hospital EDs in the United States decreased by about 12.3 percent during the same period.
Utilization rates were highest for Medicaid enrollees (81.0 visits per 100 persons) and lowest for patients with private insurance (21.5 visits per 100 persons). + At 14.2 percent of visits, patients arrived at the ED by ambulance, representing over 16 million ambulance transports. + The mean waiting time to see a physician was 46.5 minutes.
Injury, poisoning, and adverse effects of medical treatment accounted for 35.3 percent of ED visits. Falls, being struck by or striking against, and motor vehicle traffic incidents were the leading causes of injuries presenting to the ED, accounting for about 41 percent of such visits. + 1.7 million visits were for adverse effects of medical treatment.
+ About 15.8 million ED visits resulted in hospital admission, representing 13.9 percent of visits. + After increasing for 10 years, the percentage of visits with no followup planned decreased to 6.3 percent. + Over 2 million patients were transferred to other facilities (1.9 percent of visits), and 317,000 patients either were dead on arrival or died in the ED.
Emergency Room Care becomes more necessary with every Season, but the Emergency Rooms are closing down. Almost 40% of ER visits would be hard to treat by other means. Ambulance Calls to Doctors' Offices and Clinics stands as the leading User of ambulance services. A Third of such ER visits are made by Patients who are insured, and likely to have a Private Care physician. Emergency Rooms are the sole Care-Giver for an estimated 20% of all Americans. ER crowding is becoming endemic. The Situation must be corrected, but How?
Plan of Action:
1) Separate Emergency Rooms from Hospitals and other medical facilities.
2) Have ER's maintain their own ambulance and Switchboard Service.
3) Fully staff the Walk-In Service (provide more Staff than simple ambulance reception)
4) Make ER's maintain their own Billing and Payments Dept.
5) Cease Government funding of Hospitals, restricting such aid to Emergency Rooms.
Emergency Rooms must become full-service Clinics. lgl
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ad/ad358.pdf
It is the latest ambulance Care Medical Survey. It is packed with a wealth of statistics and Tables, sufficient to numb the most brazen mind. It has only a few problems, like they don't use the same language as humanity, but it give a clear picture of Emergency Health Care today.
From 1993 to 2003, the number of ED visits increased from 90.3 million to 113.9 million visits annually (up 26 percent). This represents an average increase of more than 2 million visits per year. The number of hospital EDs in the United States decreased by about 12.3 percent during the same period.
Utilization rates were highest for Medicaid enrollees (81.0 visits per 100 persons) and lowest for patients with private insurance (21.5 visits per 100 persons). + At 14.2 percent of visits, patients arrived at the ED by ambulance, representing over 16 million ambulance transports. + The mean waiting time to see a physician was 46.5 minutes.
Injury, poisoning, and adverse effects of medical treatment accounted for 35.3 percent of ED visits. Falls, being struck by or striking against, and motor vehicle traffic incidents were the leading causes of injuries presenting to the ED, accounting for about 41 percent of such visits. + 1.7 million visits were for adverse effects of medical treatment.
+ About 15.8 million ED visits resulted in hospital admission, representing 13.9 percent of visits. + After increasing for 10 years, the percentage of visits with no followup planned decreased to 6.3 percent. + Over 2 million patients were transferred to other facilities (1.9 percent of visits), and 317,000 patients either were dead on arrival or died in the ED.
Emergency Room Care becomes more necessary with every Season, but the Emergency Rooms are closing down. Almost 40% of ER visits would be hard to treat by other means. Ambulance Calls to Doctors' Offices and Clinics stands as the leading User of ambulance services. A Third of such ER visits are made by Patients who are insured, and likely to have a Private Care physician. Emergency Rooms are the sole Care-Giver for an estimated 20% of all Americans. ER crowding is becoming endemic. The Situation must be corrected, but How?
Plan of Action:
1) Separate Emergency Rooms from Hospitals and other medical facilities.
2) Have ER's maintain their own ambulance and Switchboard Service.
3) Fully staff the Walk-In Service (provide more Staff than simple ambulance reception)
4) Make ER's maintain their own Billing and Payments Dept.
5) Cease Government funding of Hospitals, restricting such aid to Emergency Rooms.
Emergency Rooms must become full-service Clinics. lgl
Monday, May 30, 2005
Memorial Day
A Day not only for Veterans, but for all Loved Ones lost for whatever reason. We still owe Veterans an obligation, though, to review the American tide of history. World War II Veterans now suffer the infirmities of old age, and will see few additional Memorial Days. It is imperative We gift them with an appreciative word of Thanks on this Day. Other military personnel should be thanked as well. It truly is the Day to Thank All who have served, or are serving in the Military.
A further obligation exists, though, in that We should reconsider the American hubris which affects Our military so drastically; We must avoid creation of unnecessary Memorials to American military dead, by avoiding such Deaths if at all possible. The best way to accomplish this goal remains reexamination of American military commitments.
The United States entered WWII because of a Japanese attack upon Pearl Harbor. America responded to the immediate Injury by establishment of long-term military commitments. This Author stated once that We have had an American army of occupation in Europe since 1942, and an American army of occupation in Japan since 1945. It is known We have had an American army of occupation on the Korean peninsula since 1950. Anyone can find multiple defensive Arguments of the current American deployments in these areas, but All realize the continued American military presence in these regions serve only American bureaucratic hubris. The Time of Need for these deployments has passed.
The 9/11 Attack on the World Trade Center and New York was spurred by American military support of Israel. Does the United States have a real national interest in provision of this military support? The answer is Yes! Did the United States have to attack Afghanistan and Iraq because of 9/11? Afghanistan--Yes, Iraq--No! The Answer expresses the real danger of American bureaucratic and Political hubris. The Afghanistan invasion was based upon a real American interest, and because it was recognized as a real need, was and is not fought by even native Afghans. America has no real national interest in the invasion of Iraq, and We are paying the price in American Dead and Wounded.
Great Presidents and American Leadership keep American military endeavors contained to specific regions, with proper concentration of proper military force. All the U.S. invasions of the Banana Republics in the first half of the 20th Century did not equal the Cost of the current American incursions, both in terms of Casualties and military expenditures. The sick humor of the comparison lies in the fact that the previous invasions faced more equitably armed and trained opposition, than the current invasions. A Telling Point is the statement that the previous invasions cost only about 1-3% of the damage to native economies as has the Later, so American Good Will and Friendship was maintained with native populations.
American Political and Military Policy must be changed, before the United States will ever regain the prestige of Our Forefathers. lgl
A further obligation exists, though, in that We should reconsider the American hubris which affects Our military so drastically; We must avoid creation of unnecessary Memorials to American military dead, by avoiding such Deaths if at all possible. The best way to accomplish this goal remains reexamination of American military commitments.
The United States entered WWII because of a Japanese attack upon Pearl Harbor. America responded to the immediate Injury by establishment of long-term military commitments. This Author stated once that We have had an American army of occupation in Europe since 1942, and an American army of occupation in Japan since 1945. It is known We have had an American army of occupation on the Korean peninsula since 1950. Anyone can find multiple defensive Arguments of the current American deployments in these areas, but All realize the continued American military presence in these regions serve only American bureaucratic hubris. The Time of Need for these deployments has passed.
The 9/11 Attack on the World Trade Center and New York was spurred by American military support of Israel. Does the United States have a real national interest in provision of this military support? The answer is Yes! Did the United States have to attack Afghanistan and Iraq because of 9/11? Afghanistan--Yes, Iraq--No! The Answer expresses the real danger of American bureaucratic and Political hubris. The Afghanistan invasion was based upon a real American interest, and because it was recognized as a real need, was and is not fought by even native Afghans. America has no real national interest in the invasion of Iraq, and We are paying the price in American Dead and Wounded.
Great Presidents and American Leadership keep American military endeavors contained to specific regions, with proper concentration of proper military force. All the U.S. invasions of the Banana Republics in the first half of the 20th Century did not equal the Cost of the current American incursions, both in terms of Casualties and military expenditures. The sick humor of the comparison lies in the fact that the previous invasions faced more equitably armed and trained opposition, than the current invasions. A Telling Point is the statement that the previous invasions cost only about 1-3% of the damage to native economies as has the Later, so American Good Will and Friendship was maintained with native populations.
American Political and Military Policy must be changed, before the United States will ever regain the prestige of Our Forefathers. lgl
Sunday, May 29, 2005
The EU
There are strong indications that France and the Dutch may vote down the EU constitution, in Elections coming shortly. Will it be a disaster for Europe? No! The economic integration of the Continent will not be undone, and the substantive agreements will remain in force. Europe may simply remain basically as it is Today, with little gain or loss.
Study of history provides an equivalent example. The United States started out as the Confederation of States, an integration little more than the current status of the EU at this point. They needed a new union in 1785, because economic functions could not be realized under the Confederation of States, basically elimination of Tariffs between States and uniform Tariffs applied to foreign Goods in different States. There was also the political goals of preventing individual States from establishing independent Treaties with foreign Powers.
Here is where the Confederation of American States diverge from the current EU. The Confederation lacks sufficient economic integration and economic linkages for unitary action by all States. The basic lack in the Confederation was inefficient Lines of Communication, both Political and Economic. The European Union, on the other hand, enjoys rapid and effective Lines of Communication, alongside extensive Private Sector integration of economic function. The political integration, as it now stands, remains sufficient to maintain the Status Quo.
Economists and Journalists propagate the theory of EU economic stagnation, a concept hard to accept when viewing the reality. Europeans enjoy a relatively high Standard of Living, good to excellent health care, and are altering their Pension plans to endure the coming decades. European businesses continue to be profitable, though Americans criticize European business practice for failure to develop according to the American model. Reality would claim Europe could not adopt the American model, which consumes too large a segment of the Resource pool, and could not be sustained by their economies. This Author believes Americans will eventually have to adopt the European model of business practice, due to reduction of Resources.
Europe does not need a political constitution, but Americans must start to think about Conservation. lgl
Study of history provides an equivalent example. The United States started out as the Confederation of States, an integration little more than the current status of the EU at this point. They needed a new union in 1785, because economic functions could not be realized under the Confederation of States, basically elimination of Tariffs between States and uniform Tariffs applied to foreign Goods in different States. There was also the political goals of preventing individual States from establishing independent Treaties with foreign Powers.
Here is where the Confederation of American States diverge from the current EU. The Confederation lacks sufficient economic integration and economic linkages for unitary action by all States. The basic lack in the Confederation was inefficient Lines of Communication, both Political and Economic. The European Union, on the other hand, enjoys rapid and effective Lines of Communication, alongside extensive Private Sector integration of economic function. The political integration, as it now stands, remains sufficient to maintain the Status Quo.
Economists and Journalists propagate the theory of EU economic stagnation, a concept hard to accept when viewing the reality. Europeans enjoy a relatively high Standard of Living, good to excellent health care, and are altering their Pension plans to endure the coming decades. European businesses continue to be profitable, though Americans criticize European business practice for failure to develop according to the American model. Reality would claim Europe could not adopt the American model, which consumes too large a segment of the Resource pool, and could not be sustained by their economies. This Author believes Americans will eventually have to adopt the European model of business practice, due to reduction of Resources.
Europe does not need a political constitution, but Americans must start to think about Conservation. lgl
Saturday, May 28, 2005
Where is Oil Production Going?
Experts: Petroleum May Be Nearing a Peak
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Oil-Gone.html
A scan of current thought from both sides on the amount of retrievable Oil reserves remaining on a World-wide level. It fails to fully outline all Alternatives to Oil as a energy source, but clearly states transference to alternate energy will require an entire competing infrastructure at immense Cost to the one already in place. It also highlights unproven claims that coal gasification can be achieved for $35/barrel in the massive amounts needed for transference.
Longtime Readers know the Author prefers a liquid Plastic fuel, which can be produced with surface Carbon (Ground Cover, Garbage, Sewage, or grown Ocean and River algae). Nuclear power can provide the energy to produce the Plastic Fuel, while transference only requires conversion of Engines, Pumps, and safe Carburation. This Author estimates surface Carbon collection would require $30/barrel, Conversion of infrastructure would require $20/barrel through the process of total transference, and mass production of a non-stick, Plastic fuel would range about $12-14/barrel. The Plastic fuel (a simple form of liquid plastic explosive with additives to keep it liquid throughout all temperatures) could be safely produced and distributed. It is the only Energy alternative with the possibility of Gas mileage in excess of 50 miles per gallon. Price at the Pump: $2-3 after complete conversion.
====================
Back to the Article:
Oil Production will peak, but it will be slower than expected in the Article, somewhere around 2030-31. We have a lot of time to work on it, but We don't as well. Expanding Oil Production will require heavy Capitalization with resultant rise in Energy price, think $100/barrel Oil consistent past 2010, and Pump prices of $7/gallon past that time. Capitalization of Plastic Fuel production immediately, with 25% reduction in Oil usage by 2020, could create the Pump Pricing: Gasoline--$4/gallon and Plastic Fuel--$4/gallon. Full conversion to Plastic Fuel by 2025: Plastic Fuel--$2/gallon, Oil--only used as lubricants. lgl
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Oil-Gone.html
A scan of current thought from both sides on the amount of retrievable Oil reserves remaining on a World-wide level. It fails to fully outline all Alternatives to Oil as a energy source, but clearly states transference to alternate energy will require an entire competing infrastructure at immense Cost to the one already in place. It also highlights unproven claims that coal gasification can be achieved for $35/barrel in the massive amounts needed for transference.
Longtime Readers know the Author prefers a liquid Plastic fuel, which can be produced with surface Carbon (Ground Cover, Garbage, Sewage, or grown Ocean and River algae). Nuclear power can provide the energy to produce the Plastic Fuel, while transference only requires conversion of Engines, Pumps, and safe Carburation. This Author estimates surface Carbon collection would require $30/barrel, Conversion of infrastructure would require $20/barrel through the process of total transference, and mass production of a non-stick, Plastic fuel would range about $12-14/barrel. The Plastic fuel (a simple form of liquid plastic explosive with additives to keep it liquid throughout all temperatures) could be safely produced and distributed. It is the only Energy alternative with the possibility of Gas mileage in excess of 50 miles per gallon. Price at the Pump: $2-3 after complete conversion.
====================
Back to the Article:
Oil Production will peak, but it will be slower than expected in the Article, somewhere around 2030-31. We have a lot of time to work on it, but We don't as well. Expanding Oil Production will require heavy Capitalization with resultant rise in Energy price, think $100/barrel Oil consistent past 2010, and Pump prices of $7/gallon past that time. Capitalization of Plastic Fuel production immediately, with 25% reduction in Oil usage by 2020, could create the Pump Pricing: Gasoline--$4/gallon and Plastic Fuel--$4/gallon. Full conversion to Plastic Fuel by 2025: Plastic Fuel--$2/gallon, Oil--only used as lubricants. lgl
Friday, May 27, 2005
The Volunteer Army
May 26, 2005
America's Recruiting Dilemma
By Robert Novak
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-5_26_05_RN.html
Robert Novak stands as a Conservative (still Supply-Sider) who thinks Michael Milken should not have had to do Time. Why Read him? The Answer is simple: because he still writes Articles like the One here cited. He continues to come up with cutting edge stories, and has since the Korean War and his participation within it, which he mentioned in this article.
This Author lacks hard numbers (the Pentagon remains very quiet about this), but there has been one estimate that the Army falls 8.5% short of required junior Officers per year. Enlisted personnel has been supposedly found to fill the necessary quota, but Some like this Author, believes they are coming up about 20% short of Requirements. A more disastrous figure often unheard is the Shortfall in the NCO cadre. Iraq and Afghanistan chews up military personnel of all types, especially the small unit Commanders. All lack qualified Replacements.
The Army Reserve and National Guard units face Recruitment worries even greater than the regular Main force. Why? The Answer states Presidential and Pentagon polices have made such Service extremely unattractive. Such Personnel face being sent into War zones and danger with less-intensive training as often as Regular units, and like the Regular troops, are subject to more than one Tour. These are generally older Personnel with extensive family commitments, which Republican and Pentagon policy refuses to recognize properly (with extended Pay packages, special Family assistance, and adequate medical care if wounded). Potential recruits go mainforce Regular Army, because it is safer, better Overall Pay and medical care, and with better Return integration into American society.
Iraq and Afghanistan cannot continue to be fought on the basis which President and Pentagon desires, where the individual Soldier must face, and solve, all personal financial difficulties in isolation, without even Command sympathy. This Author agrees with Charles Rangel, and likely Robert Novak himself, that We need an Exit strategy from the current Administration's military adventures. lgl
America's Recruiting Dilemma
By Robert Novak
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-5_26_05_RN.html
Robert Novak stands as a Conservative (still Supply-Sider) who thinks Michael Milken should not have had to do Time. Why Read him? The Answer is simple: because he still writes Articles like the One here cited. He continues to come up with cutting edge stories, and has since the Korean War and his participation within it, which he mentioned in this article.
This Author lacks hard numbers (the Pentagon remains very quiet about this), but there has been one estimate that the Army falls 8.5% short of required junior Officers per year. Enlisted personnel has been supposedly found to fill the necessary quota, but Some like this Author, believes they are coming up about 20% short of Requirements. A more disastrous figure often unheard is the Shortfall in the NCO cadre. Iraq and Afghanistan chews up military personnel of all types, especially the small unit Commanders. All lack qualified Replacements.
The Army Reserve and National Guard units face Recruitment worries even greater than the regular Main force. Why? The Answer states Presidential and Pentagon polices have made such Service extremely unattractive. Such Personnel face being sent into War zones and danger with less-intensive training as often as Regular units, and like the Regular troops, are subject to more than one Tour. These are generally older Personnel with extensive family commitments, which Republican and Pentagon policy refuses to recognize properly (with extended Pay packages, special Family assistance, and adequate medical care if wounded). Potential recruits go mainforce Regular Army, because it is safer, better Overall Pay and medical care, and with better Return integration into American society.
Iraq and Afghanistan cannot continue to be fought on the basis which President and Pentagon desires, where the individual Soldier must face, and solve, all personal financial difficulties in isolation, without even Command sympathy. This Author agrees with Charles Rangel, and likely Robert Novak himself, that We need an Exit strategy from the current Administration's military adventures. lgl
Cubicle Retirement Planning
All sorts of Options have been expounded for reforming the Social Security system This Author has provided more than one. Arnold Kling at Econlog posted a Thread on Steuerle' idea to raise the Retirement age before eligilibility for Benefits. The Author provided commentary stating such an increase in Age limit stands as unsalable to the American Public. He then advanced another alternate Proposal, which would work equally as well. (Sorry for the lack of provision of Web address)
Cubicle Retirement Planning starts with a simple premise: Retirees need substantially more Income some decades after initial Period of Retirement in order to meet increased Medical and Living Costs. Workers, though, do not desire tampering (by Anyone) with their schedule of Retirement.
The Plan:
1) A base Benefit will be set and granted to all Recipients to insure Subsistence for Lower-Income levels.
2) Eligilibility will still be calculated as is done currently.
3) Benefit Payment schedules, though, will be assigned by Decades (40 Quarters)
4) The first Ten Years of Retirement will be paid according to the Taxes paid in the first 40 Quarters, the second Ten Years of Retirement will be paid according to the Taxes paid in the second 40 Quarters, etc.
5) Disability will be paid according to an averaging of the Decade levels.
The easiest method of thinking of the program is that your Benefits will be determined by the Social Security Taxes you have paid prior to a Date some 30 or 35 Years before, with Adjustment coming at the completion of every Decade of Retirement. Full implementation of the Plan would save an (Author-estimated) 6-10% of the total Cost of the Retirement system, with the least impact on beneficiaries. Wage-indexing could be kept to maintain the living standard of Retired People, and Medicare premiums could be scaled by decade as well, to best enhance the ability to pay. No Plan is perfect when considering retirement and Pension systems, but Cubicle Planning shifts the burden to Those most able to Pay. lgl
Cubicle Retirement Planning starts with a simple premise: Retirees need substantially more Income some decades after initial Period of Retirement in order to meet increased Medical and Living Costs. Workers, though, do not desire tampering (by Anyone) with their schedule of Retirement.
The Plan:
1) A base Benefit will be set and granted to all Recipients to insure Subsistence for Lower-Income levels.
2) Eligilibility will still be calculated as is done currently.
3) Benefit Payment schedules, though, will be assigned by Decades (40 Quarters)
4) The first Ten Years of Retirement will be paid according to the Taxes paid in the first 40 Quarters, the second Ten Years of Retirement will be paid according to the Taxes paid in the second 40 Quarters, etc.
5) Disability will be paid according to an averaging of the Decade levels.
The easiest method of thinking of the program is that your Benefits will be determined by the Social Security Taxes you have paid prior to a Date some 30 or 35 Years before, with Adjustment coming at the completion of every Decade of Retirement. Full implementation of the Plan would save an (Author-estimated) 6-10% of the total Cost of the Retirement system, with the least impact on beneficiaries. Wage-indexing could be kept to maintain the living standard of Retired People, and Medicare premiums could be scaled by decade as well, to best enhance the ability to pay. No Plan is perfect when considering retirement and Pension systems, but Cubicle Planning shifts the burden to Those most able to Pay. lgl
Thursday, May 26, 2005
Statisticians Do Lie
Let's see here: The Trade deficit is up, though Everyone is not sure what the exact increase is; it is only known it did not shave 1.49% off of GDP in the last Quarter, only a silly little 0.9%. There were 274,00 new Hires, nobody need mention that total disbursed income on the new Hires is unlikely to equal the lost income coming to Those filing new Claims for Unemployment over the same Period. We are back at a GDP economic growth rate of 3.5%, forget about the silly initial 3.1% economic growth projection (even though Some expect even the initial economic projection was scaled).
What is the relevance of the above Data?
No criticism, else the Stock Market might drop again! Liberal Economists could explain that a 3.1% economic growth rate will not generate the 3% Breakeven Return to make George W. Bush's Private Accounts Plan for Social Security viable. A 3.5% economic growth rate, on the other hand, can make some Conservative Economists fantasize that the 3% Breakeven Return can be attained. One less-educated like this Author considers Transition Costs, Handling Charges, alongside the average Market flux estimated by decade, and conclude that economic growth must be at least 3.7% per year in order for the Bush Plan to obtain the Breakeven Return, and this for a sustained Period of 24 Years duration. Addendum: The Inflation rate cannot exceed 1.4% per year.
This Author has yet to see any response to a Challenge he made privately. This was a statistical Model projection of what the National Debt would be over the next 75 Years, if the Debt grew continually at the same average rate in which it has grown in the later Bush years. lgl
What is the relevance of the above Data?
No criticism, else the Stock Market might drop again! Liberal Economists could explain that a 3.1% economic growth rate will not generate the 3% Breakeven Return to make George W. Bush's Private Accounts Plan for Social Security viable. A 3.5% economic growth rate, on the other hand, can make some Conservative Economists fantasize that the 3% Breakeven Return can be attained. One less-educated like this Author considers Transition Costs, Handling Charges, alongside the average Market flux estimated by decade, and conclude that economic growth must be at least 3.7% per year in order for the Bush Plan to obtain the Breakeven Return, and this for a sustained Period of 24 Years duration. Addendum: The Inflation rate cannot exceed 1.4% per year.
This Author has yet to see any response to a Challenge he made privately. This was a statistical Model projection of what the National Debt would be over the next 75 Years, if the Debt grew continually at the same average rate in which it has grown in the later Bush years. lgl
Wednesday, May 25, 2005
Bad Mixed Bag
Durable Goods did what?
Orders for Durable Goods Reverse 3-Month Decline
By JENNIFER BAYOT
Published: May 25, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/25/business/25cnd-econ.html
Durable Goods Orders Jumped In April
By REUTERS
Published: May 25, 2005
Filed at 10:44 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-economy.html
Both try for a bright Picture, neither can hide a 0.2% decline in Durable Goods after volatile Transportation is excluded. Dollar amounts were actually the lowest spent since December.
Fitch Cuts GM Debt Rating To Junk
By REUTERS
Published: May 25, 2005
Filed at 5:02 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-autos-gm-fitch.html
GM is losing it's SUV market (down 20%), and has almost $300 bn in Carrying debt. Investment Funds (only Some) must divest GM bonds, because they cannot carry Junk bonds. Freed debt estimate: $20-30 bn, if We are lucky.
Oil Leaps To $51 As US Crude Stocks Fall
By REUTERS
Published: May 25, 2005
Filed at 12:06 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-oil.html
$51.23/barrel for Light Crude, all because Crude Oil stockpile slipped, though Crude inventories are 9.57% higher than last Year's.
Gasoline stocks increased by 600,000 barrels to 215.4 million and distillate stocks rose by 1.9 million barrels to 105.7 million.
The rationale for the Rise in Oil price:
American Consumers are expected to consume more than ever, and China will use an additional 8% of Oil this Year than last. Facts:
Refineries raised Gasoline production by only 0.2785%, and is doubtful to raise Gasoline production by more than 1.85% of current production using current Refining capacity. China faces a similar constriction. Both the United States and China will have to import Refining capacity, rather than simple Crude Oil. Crude Oil inventories are actually overstocked, without the construction of additional Refining capacity. This Author will again say that Speculators drive the Oil market pricing, not economic shortages of Oil.
=======================
Email from Samuel H. Willamson
Titled: The Economic Issues of Social Security
He excellently excerpted several Papers presented to the Democratic Policy Committee. These Papers show why the Bush Plan for Private Accounts for Social Security will lead to the loss of security for both the Social Security program and Recipients. Access to the Papers:
http://democrats.senate.gov/dpc/dpchearing.cfm?A=21
lgl
Orders for Durable Goods Reverse 3-Month Decline
By JENNIFER BAYOT
Published: May 25, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/25/business/25cnd-econ.html
Durable Goods Orders Jumped In April
By REUTERS
Published: May 25, 2005
Filed at 10:44 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-economy.html
Both try for a bright Picture, neither can hide a 0.2% decline in Durable Goods after volatile Transportation is excluded. Dollar amounts were actually the lowest spent since December.
Fitch Cuts GM Debt Rating To Junk
By REUTERS
Published: May 25, 2005
Filed at 5:02 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-autos-gm-fitch.html
GM is losing it's SUV market (down 20%), and has almost $300 bn in Carrying debt. Investment Funds (only Some) must divest GM bonds, because they cannot carry Junk bonds. Freed debt estimate: $20-30 bn, if We are lucky.
Oil Leaps To $51 As US Crude Stocks Fall
By REUTERS
Published: May 25, 2005
Filed at 12:06 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-oil.html
$51.23/barrel for Light Crude, all because Crude Oil stockpile slipped, though Crude inventories are 9.57% higher than last Year's.
Gasoline stocks increased by 600,000 barrels to 215.4 million and distillate stocks rose by 1.9 million barrels to 105.7 million.
The rationale for the Rise in Oil price:
American Consumers are expected to consume more than ever, and China will use an additional 8% of Oil this Year than last. Facts:
Refineries raised Gasoline production by only 0.2785%, and is doubtful to raise Gasoline production by more than 1.85% of current production using current Refining capacity. China faces a similar constriction. Both the United States and China will have to import Refining capacity, rather than simple Crude Oil. Crude Oil inventories are actually overstocked, without the construction of additional Refining capacity. This Author will again say that Speculators drive the Oil market pricing, not economic shortages of Oil.
=======================
Email from Samuel H. Willamson
Titled: The Economic Issues of Social Security
He excellently excerpted several Papers presented to the Democratic Policy Committee. These Papers show why the Bush Plan for Private Accounts for Social Security will lead to the loss of security for both the Social Security program and Recipients. Access to the Papers:
http://democrats.senate.gov/dpc/dpchearing.cfm?A=21
lgl
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
April Housing Sales
Greenspan warns last week that there is "froth" in the market for homes. Now We hear there is over a 4% rise in Home Sales, this vastly increasing the number of yearly sold units. What is happening? No One can be sure, but this Author has his suspicion: Homeowners are overextended, and have start to 'Buy Down'. This Process rids Homeowners of too large a level of Debt, reduces their monthly Mortgage payments, and allows for Capital Gains-taking without Tax penalty, and a future mortgage credit. They are also joined by Speculators, who think to profit from the new round of compulsive buying'.
The real problem is the produced increase in Housing prices, over a 15% Price rise year over year. This causes a problem! Homebuilders witness higher Profits coming from new Home construction, and therefore, they push hard for new construction. The mortgage Tax credit, and Homeowner indebtedness, send false economic signals to the Construction and Realty industry. Pricing proclaims an acute shortage of Housing, when a glut of Housing is growing!. The Problem defined is: When will the Housing Glut overbalance the economic impact of the mortgage tax credit, causing Housing prices to plummet?
This Author is also comforted by the knowledge that the OECD disagrees with his basic prediction of yesterday, but due solely to imaging that the Japanese and American economies differ substantially in emerging market forces. lgl
The real problem is the produced increase in Housing prices, over a 15% Price rise year over year. This causes a problem! Homebuilders witness higher Profits coming from new Home construction, and therefore, they push hard for new construction. The mortgage Tax credit, and Homeowner indebtedness, send false economic signals to the Construction and Realty industry. Pricing proclaims an acute shortage of Housing, when a glut of Housing is growing!. The Problem defined is: When will the Housing Glut overbalance the economic impact of the mortgage tax credit, causing Housing prices to plummet?
This Author is also comforted by the knowledge that the OECD disagrees with his basic prediction of yesterday, but due solely to imaging that the Japanese and American economies differ substantially in emerging market forces. lgl
Monday, May 23, 2005
National Association of Business Economics
They possess a truly sound composition of Economists, but this Author must state they are both too optimistic and too pessimistic. Here is the list of this Author's own predictions:
1) GDP growth rate--will not make 3% in 2005 (their prediction 3.4%) as the American economy already has too many Strikes against it this Year.
2) Their prediction of Labor Cost increases in excess of 4% is all wet, as variations in Productivity growth do not impact that much. Rarely does Wage increases exceed the CPI, because of Business use of Layoffs and Downsizing to cut Labor Costs, unless Labor exerts real muscle in negotiations for a Living Wage.
3) Their prediction of CPI inflation of 2.8% fails of belief: All the Supply and Energy distortions within the Price structure are not only still present, but more impactual. Core inflation will equal, if not exceed, the Core inflation of 2004. A triangular Inflation syndrome has also developed, where non-Core inflation (of the beautiful Stripper's art) has become the Third Rail of Household Cost--directly behind mortgage, Car payment, and Health Care.
4) Their Trade Deficit of $662 bn can only be realized if the Dollar devalues significantly. Real physical Trade components indicate total Trade Product will decline. Author prediction of Trade Deficit: $601 billion.
5) Too much production of Light Crude and Brent, and too little refining capacity. Author's prediction: average Crude Price for 2005: $39.75/barrel; Gasoline: $2.05/gallon; diesel: $2.20/gallon; Heating Oil: $2.40/gallon; Propane: $2.00/gallon. Crude will be much cheaper than the National Association estimate with Gasoline a little cheaper. The real bummer will be the diesel and Heating Oil prices--with Propane unnaturally in step with Heating Oil pricing (major weight Price-gouging without presence of weighted Production Cost increases--can you tell the Author heats with Propane?) The cost of diesel fuel will push up Transportation Costs overall, with much greater impact than ordinary PPI increases (We are talking about a 2% increase in Core inflation.
Now you can all join in the Chorus: WHAT THE HELL DOES HE KNOW??? lgl
1) GDP growth rate--will not make 3% in 2005 (their prediction 3.4%) as the American economy already has too many Strikes against it this Year.
2) Their prediction of Labor Cost increases in excess of 4% is all wet, as variations in Productivity growth do not impact that much. Rarely does Wage increases exceed the CPI, because of Business use of Layoffs and Downsizing to cut Labor Costs, unless Labor exerts real muscle in negotiations for a Living Wage.
3) Their prediction of CPI inflation of 2.8% fails of belief: All the Supply and Energy distortions within the Price structure are not only still present, but more impactual. Core inflation will equal, if not exceed, the Core inflation of 2004. A triangular Inflation syndrome has also developed, where non-Core inflation (of the beautiful Stripper's art) has become the Third Rail of Household Cost--directly behind mortgage, Car payment, and Health Care.
4) Their Trade Deficit of $662 bn can only be realized if the Dollar devalues significantly. Real physical Trade components indicate total Trade Product will decline. Author prediction of Trade Deficit: $601 billion.
5) Too much production of Light Crude and Brent, and too little refining capacity. Author's prediction: average Crude Price for 2005: $39.75/barrel; Gasoline: $2.05/gallon; diesel: $2.20/gallon; Heating Oil: $2.40/gallon; Propane: $2.00/gallon. Crude will be much cheaper than the National Association estimate with Gasoline a little cheaper. The real bummer will be the diesel and Heating Oil prices--with Propane unnaturally in step with Heating Oil pricing (major weight Price-gouging without presence of weighted Production Cost increases--can you tell the Author heats with Propane?) The cost of diesel fuel will push up Transportation Costs overall, with much greater impact than ordinary PPI increases (We are talking about a 2% increase in Core inflation.
Now you can all join in the Chorus: WHAT THE HELL DOES HE KNOW??? lgl
Sunday, May 22, 2005
Coal Gasification
Dirty Secret: Coal Plants Could Be Much Cleaner
By KENNETH J. STIER
Published: May 22, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/22/business/yourmoney/22coal.html?
Good article about becoming locked into antiquated technology due to insufficient regulation now. The real value of the Article lies in it's statement that 'stripping' carbon and greenhouse elements from fuel is cheaper than scrubbing exhaust to rid of pollutant gases. The benefits of the Gasification of Coal process consist of using about 15% less fuel to produce the same energy as Coal emission technologies. The Downside lay in the fact that Coal Gasification technology is much more expensive than stated in the Article, and current Costs of Coal production are such that it would take almost 6 Years at current Coal prices of Production to equalize Production Costs with Construction Costs added. Heavy industrial Production plant construction has gone up drastically, since the Pilot plant was built.
The Author would feel greater regret, except he does not believe Coal Gasification is the Answer. He has always favored a cheap, artificial, plastic fuel (low-grade plastic explosive) which could be produced as cheaply as the current Oil refining process--including Supply components. People may be disturbed by mention of plastic explosives, but almost all such plastics are harder to ignite than Gasoline, and could be safer overall than diesel. lgl
By KENNETH J. STIER
Published: May 22, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/22/business/yourmoney/22coal.html?
Good article about becoming locked into antiquated technology due to insufficient regulation now. The real value of the Article lies in it's statement that 'stripping' carbon and greenhouse elements from fuel is cheaper than scrubbing exhaust to rid of pollutant gases. The benefits of the Gasification of Coal process consist of using about 15% less fuel to produce the same energy as Coal emission technologies. The Downside lay in the fact that Coal Gasification technology is much more expensive than stated in the Article, and current Costs of Coal production are such that it would take almost 6 Years at current Coal prices of Production to equalize Production Costs with Construction Costs added. Heavy industrial Production plant construction has gone up drastically, since the Pilot plant was built.
The Author would feel greater regret, except he does not believe Coal Gasification is the Answer. He has always favored a cheap, artificial, plastic fuel (low-grade plastic explosive) which could be produced as cheaply as the current Oil refining process--including Supply components. People may be disturbed by mention of plastic explosives, but almost all such plastics are harder to ignite than Gasoline, and could be safer overall than diesel. lgl
Saturday, May 21, 2005
Imports
The word makes Free Traders tremble with anticipation, but has of late brought some tremors of fright. A axiom of truth must be entered at this point: American Exports will never grow to match the current American level of Imports. This leads to the second truth which must be stated: The only way to effectively close the Trade Deficit, and alter the fundamental structure of the Current Accounts Deficit, is to find some way to curtail American Imports.
This Author thinks We will get an example of the effectiveness of Economic Policy, but exhibited in the only place where it is effective--at the microeconomic level. West Coast harbor facilities are raising their usage fees in effort to regulate the flow of traffic. This will alter Shipping costs significantly for Carriers, who have no effective manner of determining whether they can get the cheaper or the higher rate (they quene for harbor usage, and cannot tell what Time they will be called). Carriers will thereby charge Shippers according the higher rate universally, and raise Shipping Costs by almost 11% per Container. Simple Economic models, unadjusted for outside propulsions, relate this will mean a 4% reduction in Imports (this Author expects no more than 1% decline, due to those exterior propulsions to Trade). It will still mean a 0.6 reduction in the Advantage of Trade Index.
China is already placing tariffs on Clothing Exports, trying to head off U.S. and EU imposition of Clothing quotas. The tariffs will not succeed, because the Quotas will be imposed. This Author can hardly wait for the Quotas, but not to reduce Chinese trade. The Quotas have a microeconomic effect! American Wholesalers and Retailers find the Quotas effectively block Overseas investment to establish cheap supply of Goods. Said Wholesalers must rely on World market forces to purchase Goods from native-owned Manufacturers, or they must set up foreign distribution networks (a huge Expense) to sell their own excess manufacture.
What is the total effect?
Guess-estimates of the Author imply American foreign investment will decline by 12-15% due to the Quotas concurrently emplaced in both U.S. and EU, while American domestic investment will rise by a late 2-3%. The increased Harbor charges will sustain the microeconomic effect of the Quotas, without affecting American Exports (concentrated Goods with low Harbor charge per item) more than marginally. The Energy shortage of the coming Winter is vastly overrated, and the U.S. and EU, along with China and Japan, will not meet the Energy usage of last Year. You can all tell the Author how wrong he was, at the end of the Year. lgl
This Author thinks We will get an example of the effectiveness of Economic Policy, but exhibited in the only place where it is effective--at the microeconomic level. West Coast harbor facilities are raising their usage fees in effort to regulate the flow of traffic. This will alter Shipping costs significantly for Carriers, who have no effective manner of determining whether they can get the cheaper or the higher rate (they quene for harbor usage, and cannot tell what Time they will be called). Carriers will thereby charge Shippers according the higher rate universally, and raise Shipping Costs by almost 11% per Container. Simple Economic models, unadjusted for outside propulsions, relate this will mean a 4% reduction in Imports (this Author expects no more than 1% decline, due to those exterior propulsions to Trade). It will still mean a 0.6 reduction in the Advantage of Trade Index.
China is already placing tariffs on Clothing Exports, trying to head off U.S. and EU imposition of Clothing quotas. The tariffs will not succeed, because the Quotas will be imposed. This Author can hardly wait for the Quotas, but not to reduce Chinese trade. The Quotas have a microeconomic effect! American Wholesalers and Retailers find the Quotas effectively block Overseas investment to establish cheap supply of Goods. Said Wholesalers must rely on World market forces to purchase Goods from native-owned Manufacturers, or they must set up foreign distribution networks (a huge Expense) to sell their own excess manufacture.
What is the total effect?
Guess-estimates of the Author imply American foreign investment will decline by 12-15% due to the Quotas concurrently emplaced in both U.S. and EU, while American domestic investment will rise by a late 2-3%. The increased Harbor charges will sustain the microeconomic effect of the Quotas, without affecting American Exports (concentrated Goods with low Harbor charge per item) more than marginally. The Energy shortage of the coming Winter is vastly overrated, and the U.S. and EU, along with China and Japan, will not meet the Energy usage of last Year. You can all tell the Author how wrong he was, at the end of the Year. lgl
Friday, May 20, 2005
What is North Korea Doing?
This is not the usual ramble on the idiosyncrasy of North Korean leadership concerning their nuclear threat. They produce a multiplex of threats to American national objectives. This Author has received an unverified report that the N. Korean munitions industry has started to supply Terrorist elements; nothing new, except for detail. The gist of this rumor, until verified, states N. Korean are sending wire-guided, hand-held, anti-armor missiles to Iraqi insurgents through Iran. This would be an major escalation of the Terrorism in Iraq, as such missiles have a range of 1000 meters with a 80% accuracy. N. Korea is known to have about 18,000 of these weapons in stock, and the capacity to produce about 2000 per year.
The Report may be nothing more than Islamic Terrorist rhetoric, but the Author suggests American intelligence take the Information seriously until disproved. It implies almost 4000 of these weapons are already in the process of distribution throughout Iraq. The major problem of such a Weapon system in Iraq is not simply threat to American soldiers. Most Armor vehicles need a direct hit (not a deflection hit) to achieve penetration. The threat to Convoys, though, is incredibly high, and the Oil pipelines could be permanently closed with little danger to the attacking Insurgents. lgl
The Report may be nothing more than Islamic Terrorist rhetoric, but the Author suggests American intelligence take the Information seriously until disproved. It implies almost 4000 of these weapons are already in the process of distribution throughout Iraq. The major problem of such a Weapon system in Iraq is not simply threat to American soldiers. Most Armor vehicles need a direct hit (not a deflection hit) to achieve penetration. The threat to Convoys, though, is incredibly high, and the Oil pipelines could be permanently closed with little danger to the attacking Insurgents. lgl
Thursday, May 19, 2005
China Growth
The NYTimes came out with an article today suggesting that internal growth in China shows signs of slowing, though their Exports continue to grow. The Article implies this will make the Chinese even more resistant to allowing the Yuan to float. Part-Right and Part-Wrong.
China faces a huge Cash-inflow from her production of Exports. She, and the other Asian nations, cannot permanently continue the practice of buying U.S. Treasuries. China's huge level of Export production is propelling Wage inflation throughout the internal economy. Her tight Credit control can only delay internal inflation. Prevention of internal inflation requires absorbing the increasing Wages of the Export industries. A Black Market will expand in China, unless Chinese leadership enters into a program of interior development.
Floating the Yuan will retard this Black Market, which expresses almost total freedom from other forms of Market and Currency controls. The primary feature of Black Market effect in tightly controlled economies is the development of the Double-Pay package, where Labor is paid a regulated and accounted Pay, but alongside an under-the-Counter unaccounted Wage. Businesspeople get accustomed to carrying around a bag full of Cash to do business. The initial Chinese Bank scandals indicate the Double-Pay package already thrives in China.
China has to start internal development with switch of Chinese production from Exports to internal consumption, or confront a worse Inflation than an over-spending Federal Government could produce here. lgl
China faces a huge Cash-inflow from her production of Exports. She, and the other Asian nations, cannot permanently continue the practice of buying U.S. Treasuries. China's huge level of Export production is propelling Wage inflation throughout the internal economy. Her tight Credit control can only delay internal inflation. Prevention of internal inflation requires absorbing the increasing Wages of the Export industries. A Black Market will expand in China, unless Chinese leadership enters into a program of interior development.
Floating the Yuan will retard this Black Market, which expresses almost total freedom from other forms of Market and Currency controls. The primary feature of Black Market effect in tightly controlled economies is the development of the Double-Pay package, where Labor is paid a regulated and accounted Pay, but alongside an under-the-Counter unaccounted Wage. Businesspeople get accustomed to carrying around a bag full of Cash to do business. The initial Chinese Bank scandals indicate the Double-Pay package already thrives in China.
China has to start internal development with switch of Chinese production from Exports to internal consumption, or confront a worse Inflation than an over-spending Federal Government could produce here. lgl
Wednesday, May 18, 2005
Core Inflation
This Author has some difficulty with Core Inflation standing at 2.24% this month year over year. Food Costs have averaged more than that since the First of this Year. Apparel is down? Since when did Apparel knock more than one percent off the Inflation rate? The Owner-Equivalent Rent is what? It going down only reflects all those Unemployed who could not make Rent payments or mortgage payments in the last Year. Correct me if I am wrong here, but didn't the PPI go up over 1.7% since January? Are Our poor Businesspeople giving up around 8% of their Profits since the first of the Year, so We could have a stable Core Inflation?
A More Likely Scenario:
Someone (think of a West Wing episode) reached out and touched Someone else (like one of the Fed Governors), asking said Governor what type of Consumer Report could entice the Fed to stop raising the Overnight rate. We are back to the West Wing episode, with the President calling something like BLT, or the BLS; President's mistake, he doesn't like lettuce on his BLT's, or is that this Author. The Conversation probably mentioned something about reining in a stampede, lest the Chinamen charge me 2% more on my Notes. Can't have that now, can We? By the way, put some salsa on that BLT. lgl
A More Likely Scenario:
Someone (think of a West Wing episode) reached out and touched Someone else (like one of the Fed Governors), asking said Governor what type of Consumer Report could entice the Fed to stop raising the Overnight rate. We are back to the West Wing episode, with the President calling something like BLT, or the BLS; President's mistake, he doesn't like lettuce on his BLT's, or is that this Author. The Conversation probably mentioned something about reining in a stampede, lest the Chinamen charge me 2% more on my Notes. Can't have that now, can We? By the way, put some salsa on that BLT. lgl
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
The Producer Price Index
It rose 0.6 in April, continuing the trend of March of 0.7 increase. This does not mean that Inflation pressure is lessening. A sharp increase one Month will lead to following reduced increases in following Months, until there is another sharp spike, or a leveling off of Prices for a number of months. This pattern emerges due to Producers only periodically altering their Price schedules, because of the Cost of changing their Price schedules (notification to Wholesalers and Retailers of the Price changes, issuance of new catalogues, etc.). Such Price increases generally extend in excess of a Quarter, as Producers possess varying Evaluation formulas to determine Prices, and they are set to trip at different Period dates. Widespread gain in the PPI will invariably incur successive Months of gain, due to the process.
The real Economic worry consists of the 15.9% year over year increase in Energy prices. No One can validly strip Fuel price increases from the next PPI reading, it stops being volatile and becomes statistical gain. The only thing to reverse this gain is a reduction of that 15.9% increase over last year. Sensible Economists actually state that stripping of volatile Prices ends by the third consistent Quarter.
Manufacturing output was down 0.2, after a 0.1 gain in March, but what does this mean? The reduction comes in lower Vehicle production, the same thing which held down the March reading. Why is Vehicle production down? Car Companies are not producing or selling the lines most favored before the Energy prices increases--SUVs, and the high-powered Light Trucks, simply because they are Gas-hogs. Let no Economist snow you, the American economy suffers from high Energy pricing. lgl
The real Economic worry consists of the 15.9% year over year increase in Energy prices. No One can validly strip Fuel price increases from the next PPI reading, it stops being volatile and becomes statistical gain. The only thing to reverse this gain is a reduction of that 15.9% increase over last year. Sensible Economists actually state that stripping of volatile Prices ends by the third consistent Quarter.
Manufacturing output was down 0.2, after a 0.1 gain in March, but what does this mean? The reduction comes in lower Vehicle production, the same thing which held down the March reading. Why is Vehicle production down? Car Companies are not producing or selling the lines most favored before the Energy prices increases--SUVs, and the high-powered Light Trucks, simply because they are Gas-hogs. Let no Economist snow you, the American economy suffers from high Energy pricing. lgl
Monday, May 16, 2005
Make or Break Month
May is the month where We find out if the higher Fuel bills will have an impact upon fuel consumption. Ideal Model outcome is a 6% drop in Fuel Consumption year on year from last year. The Price of Gas would then be about $1.80/gallon by Fall--start of the Heating season. Worst Scenario will be if Worldwide fuel consumption eats up the excess capacity by an 8% increase year on year from last Year. Fuel prices then will have to be stabilized by Rationing, unheard of since WWII.
The Author had hopes high Fuel prices would curtail the non-Productive usage of Fuels. He has noticed fewer RVs on the road, but they are still substantially there. Truck traffic has slowed somewhat, though it takes a trained Eye to detect it. He needed to go to his local Walmart this morning, though, and found the Parking areas filled as usual. The final deep cut consists of SUV Sales are again going up in relation to other new Vehicle Sales. The American Consumer is pushing the Envelope.
Author Proposals:
Any Steps to avoid Gas Rationing stand preferable to the bureaucratic mess itself. The President should immediately order all National and State Parks to triple their Access and Camping fees. He should also order all Single-Occupant vehicle access to Toll roads to pay triple the normal Toll rate. Down-the-Road Congressional Act could demand all Shopping facilities install Parking meters in their Parking areas, collected Funds to underwrite State Medicaid Costs; the Parking toll will be $1 per hour, gathered by the Shopping facility itself for 20% of the revenue (The City Parking tickets will be real enough, at $50 apiece a significant source of Local Government revenue). lgl
The Author had hopes high Fuel prices would curtail the non-Productive usage of Fuels. He has noticed fewer RVs on the road, but they are still substantially there. Truck traffic has slowed somewhat, though it takes a trained Eye to detect it. He needed to go to his local Walmart this morning, though, and found the Parking areas filled as usual. The final deep cut consists of SUV Sales are again going up in relation to other new Vehicle Sales. The American Consumer is pushing the Envelope.
Author Proposals:
Any Steps to avoid Gas Rationing stand preferable to the bureaucratic mess itself. The President should immediately order all National and State Parks to triple their Access and Camping fees. He should also order all Single-Occupant vehicle access to Toll roads to pay triple the normal Toll rate. Down-the-Road Congressional Act could demand all Shopping facilities install Parking meters in their Parking areas, collected Funds to underwrite State Medicaid Costs; the Parking toll will be $1 per hour, gathered by the Shopping facility itself for 20% of the revenue (The City Parking tickets will be real enough, at $50 apiece a significant source of Local Government revenue). lgl
Sunday, May 15, 2005
Regulation
Greenspan spoke at the Wharton commencement, advising the Graduates to be honest and fair in their dealings with Others. The general tone of his words implied avoidance of the personal corruption, which comes with dishonest dealings with Associates, Competitors, and External Controls in the Marketplace. It sounded a correct note for graduating Students, but actually does little to suppress the personal corruption.
The basic malfeasance exhibited in the Business world comes from excessive Regulation. Lawyers and Legislators hold the blame for the corruption, by demanding very specific and particular statement of every 'Can Do' or 'Can't do'. Basic Injury Law should be utilized to govern Business ethics. The Statement for Justice in Business performance must be: Who, if Anyone, suffered Personal Injury or Financial Loss due to unethical Business practice? The obtuse regulations on Business conduct draw Everyone away from the above central question.
The Author will immediately be queried as to the definition of ethical Business conduct, saying the lack of definition requires the intense regulation. He can only provide a definition he believes valid: Ethical Business conduct is that which does not impose Exterior Costs upon Others without recompensation. lgl
The basic malfeasance exhibited in the Business world comes from excessive Regulation. Lawyers and Legislators hold the blame for the corruption, by demanding very specific and particular statement of every 'Can Do' or 'Can't do'. Basic Injury Law should be utilized to govern Business ethics. The Statement for Justice in Business performance must be: Who, if Anyone, suffered Personal Injury or Financial Loss due to unethical Business practice? The obtuse regulations on Business conduct draw Everyone away from the above central question.
The Author will immediately be queried as to the definition of ethical Business conduct, saying the lack of definition requires the intense regulation. He can only provide a definition he believes valid: Ethical Business conduct is that which does not impose Exterior Costs upon Others without recompensation. lgl
Saturday, May 14, 2005
Export Pricing
The Last Government report said Imports--up 0.8%, Exports--up 0.6%, but the previous report put Imports--up 2%, Exports--up about 0.6% (in Price). This reflects a trend which has been going on for about a Year. Resources and low-Tech production has been gaining in value against high-Tech production. Another way of expressing it: American and World high-Tech products have been suffering Product-inflation; Resource and low-Tech Products have been enjoying a Product-deflation.
What has brought on this Trend?
The primary cause consists of American Outsourcing of base element (low-Tech) Production. This has raised foreign industrial demand for Resources and semi-Finished Products, while the American demand for such Resources and Products diminished at a slower rate than the rate of Outsourcing; the Process increasing overall industrial demand for the Products, leading to higher Resource pricing. The second primary cause stands as the fact that American Producers did not pass all Profits gained from Outsourcing along to the Wholesalers, who did not pass all the reduced Costs along to the Retailers, who did not pass all the reduced Costs along to the Consumers through lower Pricing.
We can now turn to the Production side of the Equation. The Producers of high-Tech Products face higher Production Costs due to higher Pricing for Resources and Semi-Finished Products. Their Profits from Production have been reduced, and they face a sharply competitive market for their Product. They individually chose to maintain their Price schedules, in hopes to achieve greater market share, intent on recouping lost Profits through expanded Sales. Now comes the debacle: Achievement of their intent resulted in higher Labor Costs, again reducing Profits. Exorbitant failure of intent led to increased Inventory Costs and higher Resource Pricing.
This Author suggests high-Tech Producers Worldwide abandon a self-defeating pursuit of expanded Sales, and initiate Price schedules which would increase high-Tech Product pricing to an overall 3.5-6% gain. lgl
What has brought on this Trend?
The primary cause consists of American Outsourcing of base element (low-Tech) Production. This has raised foreign industrial demand for Resources and semi-Finished Products, while the American demand for such Resources and Products diminished at a slower rate than the rate of Outsourcing; the Process increasing overall industrial demand for the Products, leading to higher Resource pricing. The second primary cause stands as the fact that American Producers did not pass all Profits gained from Outsourcing along to the Wholesalers, who did not pass all the reduced Costs along to the Retailers, who did not pass all the reduced Costs along to the Consumers through lower Pricing.
We can now turn to the Production side of the Equation. The Producers of high-Tech Products face higher Production Costs due to higher Pricing for Resources and Semi-Finished Products. Their Profits from Production have been reduced, and they face a sharply competitive market for their Product. They individually chose to maintain their Price schedules, in hopes to achieve greater market share, intent on recouping lost Profits through expanded Sales. Now comes the debacle: Achievement of their intent resulted in higher Labor Costs, again reducing Profits. Exorbitant failure of intent led to increased Inventory Costs and higher Resource Pricing.
This Author suggests high-Tech Producers Worldwide abandon a self-defeating pursuit of expanded Sales, and initiate Price schedules which would increase high-Tech Product pricing to an overall 3.5-6% gain. lgl
Friday, May 13, 2005
Military Base Closings
The Pentagon just released the BROC recommendations for Base closings. It is milder than expected, but the upcoming fight will be as rough. Governors, Senators, and Congressmen are already gearing up for battle. The sad element in all this lies in the fact the Closings will beneficial in the long run for Everyone.
New London (the Sub base) can be dredged and revamped into a modern Container-Ship facility serving the Northeast. Some of the Alabama and Mississippi bases should not be deactivated, per sec, but turned into Oil refineries (left Active for Security protection with a MP battalion stationed onsite). The Texas bases even have reasonable Pipeline access for Oil refining capacity. The Pentagon's plan for Shared-Training facilities is not as acceptable; Combat MOS training facilities should be kept separate, for expansion purposes in case of large-scale War. There are some Expenses which should be borne. The Recommendation Report, though, stands as very creditable, and State and Local officialdom should be brought on board.
A primary accomplishment to the afore-mentioned End would be a Federal Executive and Legislative decision to 'Build and Lease' economic productive capacity on the closing bases. The Author mentioned on previous Post the suggestion that the Federal Government itself build Oil Refineries on Active Military bases, then lease the Refining capacity to Private Operators. The Federal Government could develop the Container-Ship capacity at New London, then lease the facility, or have a Federal Port Authority operate the Facility at a Profit. Alabama and Mississippi base sites are almost perfect locations to build Top-tech Steel smelting plants which can be profitably leased; the Military will need Steel production capacity in case of full-scale War. Conservatives will claim this would be a huge expanse of Government, but it would be a good expansion; the Government acting only as Capital-Aggregator and Landlord. lgl
New London (the Sub base) can be dredged and revamped into a modern Container-Ship facility serving the Northeast. Some of the Alabama and Mississippi bases should not be deactivated, per sec, but turned into Oil refineries (left Active for Security protection with a MP battalion stationed onsite). The Texas bases even have reasonable Pipeline access for Oil refining capacity. The Pentagon's plan for Shared-Training facilities is not as acceptable; Combat MOS training facilities should be kept separate, for expansion purposes in case of large-scale War. There are some Expenses which should be borne. The Recommendation Report, though, stands as very creditable, and State and Local officialdom should be brought on board.
A primary accomplishment to the afore-mentioned End would be a Federal Executive and Legislative decision to 'Build and Lease' economic productive capacity on the closing bases. The Author mentioned on previous Post the suggestion that the Federal Government itself build Oil Refineries on Active Military bases, then lease the Refining capacity to Private Operators. The Federal Government could develop the Container-Ship capacity at New London, then lease the facility, or have a Federal Port Authority operate the Facility at a Profit. Alabama and Mississippi base sites are almost perfect locations to build Top-tech Steel smelting plants which can be profitably leased; the Military will need Steel production capacity in case of full-scale War. Conservatives will claim this would be a huge expanse of Government, but it would be a good expansion; the Government acting only as Capital-Aggregator and Landlord. lgl
Thursday, May 12, 2005
Iraq Casualties
The Author was playing with the numbers today (he should never do it, and he has a high error rate at numbers-crunching), and he came up with some very depressing Numbers. The monthly Casualty numbers as reported April 5 were 51 American KIA, and 276 total American Casualties. The interesting element about the April 5 numbers was it gave Us the 24th monthly Casualty count.
Distressing data elements start to appear under computation. The April 5 Count of 51 KIA was 101.33% of the average monthly KIA rate of 50.33 per month of Year One, but only 62.38% of the average monthly KIA rate of 81.75 per month of the second Year of the War. Does this mean the War is getting better, or winding down for Americans? The April 5 KIA Count was higher than the actual KIA Count in 11 months of the War, no more than 10 American deaths lower for three more months, and equaled at least half of average KIA deaths in an additional 11 months of the War. The fact that the highest KIA rates occurred in the later 12 months should not please, as it means that the KIA rate had gone up 61.56% in the second Year of the War.
The total Casualty Rate has also increased from an monthly Average of 306.083 Casualties in the First Year of the War, to a monthly average of 768.5 Casualties in the Second Year of the War. The April 5 Casualty Count equaled only 27.40% of the highly monthly Count recorded, but it is not time for congratulations. The April 5 Casualty Count made up 90% of the First Year monthly Casualty Count average, but only 35.94% of the Second Year's casualty Count monthly average. Iraq's guerilla war is expanding, not diminishing!
Iraqi Citizens are dying presently in greater numbers than ever. The U.S. Government has spent over $300 billion in Iraq since the start of the Conflict, remember the poor Official who lost his Job with Bush, because he suggested that Iraq might cost $100 billion? The Author cannot find reliable numbers on the Incident rates against Americans, and the Incident rates overall. The Reader can be assured they have gone up significantly during the Second Year of the Iraq War.
Everyone, since the beginning Build-up to attack Iraq, vigorously denied Iraq had any similarity to Viet Nam. The Author has lived through both Events, and thinks the Denials are foolish. lgl
Distressing data elements start to appear under computation. The April 5 Count of 51 KIA was 101.33% of the average monthly KIA rate of 50.33 per month of Year One, but only 62.38% of the average monthly KIA rate of 81.75 per month of the second Year of the War. Does this mean the War is getting better, or winding down for Americans? The April 5 KIA Count was higher than the actual KIA Count in 11 months of the War, no more than 10 American deaths lower for three more months, and equaled at least half of average KIA deaths in an additional 11 months of the War. The fact that the highest KIA rates occurred in the later 12 months should not please, as it means that the KIA rate had gone up 61.56% in the second Year of the War.
The total Casualty Rate has also increased from an monthly Average of 306.083 Casualties in the First Year of the War, to a monthly average of 768.5 Casualties in the Second Year of the War. The April 5 Casualty Count equaled only 27.40% of the highly monthly Count recorded, but it is not time for congratulations. The April 5 Casualty Count made up 90% of the First Year monthly Casualty Count average, but only 35.94% of the Second Year's casualty Count monthly average. Iraq's guerilla war is expanding, not diminishing!
Iraqi Citizens are dying presently in greater numbers than ever. The U.S. Government has spent over $300 billion in Iraq since the start of the Conflict, remember the poor Official who lost his Job with Bush, because he suggested that Iraq might cost $100 billion? The Author cannot find reliable numbers on the Incident rates against Americans, and the Incident rates overall. The Reader can be assured they have gone up significantly during the Second Year of the Iraq War.
Everyone, since the beginning Build-up to attack Iraq, vigorously denied Iraq had any similarity to Viet Nam. The Author has lived through both Events, and thinks the Denials are foolish. lgl
Wednesday, May 11, 2005
$55 Billion Trade Deficit
Many Economists claim a potential turnaround trend, with the GDP growth rate for the First Quarter bound to be revised upward. This Author does not believe this, but he has often been wrong. Here is his rationale:
Retail Sales have been sliding in terms of Real Goods sold, combined with increasing Business inventories and declining Retail Imports purchased at the Wholesale level. Clear Indicators showing that Consumer Demand is cooling! Crude Oil inventories stand at 10% above last Year's level, Gasoline at 5% above last Year's level, and Distillate at 2% above last Year's level. The Author lacks hard numbers, but Household vehicle inventories have increased over last Year, plus the number of People of Driving Age has increased. Higher Gasoline pricing has definitely cut into Demand for the Product. Aircraft Sales recorded during the last Quarter probably(the Author lacking hard information) were only Sale Contracts, with the Product still uncompleted; resources and Manpower to complete the Contracts will detract from later Quarter readings. The Author is still of the opinion that the First Quarter growth rate will be revised downward to below 3%. lgl
Retail Sales have been sliding in terms of Real Goods sold, combined with increasing Business inventories and declining Retail Imports purchased at the Wholesale level. Clear Indicators showing that Consumer Demand is cooling! Crude Oil inventories stand at 10% above last Year's level, Gasoline at 5% above last Year's level, and Distillate at 2% above last Year's level. The Author lacks hard numbers, but Household vehicle inventories have increased over last Year, plus the number of People of Driving Age has increased. Higher Gasoline pricing has definitely cut into Demand for the Product. Aircraft Sales recorded during the last Quarter probably(the Author lacking hard information) were only Sale Contracts, with the Product still uncompleted; resources and Manpower to complete the Contracts will detract from later Quarter readings. The Author is still of the opinion that the First Quarter growth rate will be revised downward to below 3%. lgl
Tuesday, May 10, 2005
Medicaid
Federal and State spending has been increasing about 10% per year, and is expected to increase. The trouble comes in that Bush and Congress do not want to provide the funds, and neither do the States who have their own fiscal troubles:
May 9, 2005 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
FRAMING THE CHOICES
By Robert Zahradnik, Iris J. Lav and Elizabeth McNichol
http://www.cbpp.org/5-9-05sfp.htm
State revenues increase, but not at the levels needed to fund the fast-growing Medicaid Cost. State Governors and Legislators have turned at least fiscally conservative, and remain opposed to Tax increases. Many States still pass backloaded Tax Cuts, which will cut additional Tax revenues in the face of rising Costs overall.
States Propose Sweeping Changes to Trim Medicaid by Billions
By ROBERT PEAR
Published: May 9, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/09/national/09medicaid.html?hp&ex=1115697600&en=a22d0d23988af62b&ei=5094&partner=homepage
This article clearly outlines the Thought pattern at the State level on methodology to trim Medicaid Costs. There are serious Outcome problems with this set of options. No Co-Payment system will raise more than marginal revenue when dealing with a subsistence medical insurance for Poor people; Collection Costs will exceed gainful benefit, while medical Costs will revert to Emergency Room Costs explosion. Limiting Medicaid rolls in an artificial manner will also lead to the previous described effect. Such Changes will always fail.
Author's Proposal:
Medicaid is Subsistence medical insurance, therefore, adequate rather than superior medical aid stands sufficient. Medicaid cannot survive dealing as freely in a highly-financed Private health market. Medicaid Rules of Payment must be altered:
1) Doctors, Clinics, and Hospitals must submit a Weekly and Monthly bill for their Medicaid patients. This will be a Combined Bill for all Patients, submitted in a manner where Payment can resemble reimbursement for Employee services.
2) Medicaid will pay a set price for Each medical service according to a Bluebook schedule of medical services--uniform through the U.S. for Medicare and Medicaid.
3) Doctors and Clinics will be paid a uniform rate per Patient visit not to exceed a Weekly, bi-Weekly, or Monthly remuneration level set by Bluebook schedule, whereas after payment of this amount; Doctors, Clinics, and Hospitals are considered Employees of Medicaid, or Medicare, and must provide medical aid for all Said Patients whatever their final number. lgl
May 9, 2005 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
FRAMING THE CHOICES
By Robert Zahradnik, Iris J. Lav and Elizabeth McNichol
http://www.cbpp.org/5-9-05sfp.htm
State revenues increase, but not at the levels needed to fund the fast-growing Medicaid Cost. State Governors and Legislators have turned at least fiscally conservative, and remain opposed to Tax increases. Many States still pass backloaded Tax Cuts, which will cut additional Tax revenues in the face of rising Costs overall.
States Propose Sweeping Changes to Trim Medicaid by Billions
By ROBERT PEAR
Published: May 9, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/09/national/09medicaid.html?hp&ex=1115697600&en=a22d0d23988af62b&ei=5094&partner=homepage
This article clearly outlines the Thought pattern at the State level on methodology to trim Medicaid Costs. There are serious Outcome problems with this set of options. No Co-Payment system will raise more than marginal revenue when dealing with a subsistence medical insurance for Poor people; Collection Costs will exceed gainful benefit, while medical Costs will revert to Emergency Room Costs explosion. Limiting Medicaid rolls in an artificial manner will also lead to the previous described effect. Such Changes will always fail.
Author's Proposal:
Medicaid is Subsistence medical insurance, therefore, adequate rather than superior medical aid stands sufficient. Medicaid cannot survive dealing as freely in a highly-financed Private health market. Medicaid Rules of Payment must be altered:
1) Doctors, Clinics, and Hospitals must submit a Weekly and Monthly bill for their Medicaid patients. This will be a Combined Bill for all Patients, submitted in a manner where Payment can resemble reimbursement for Employee services.
2) Medicaid will pay a set price for Each medical service according to a Bluebook schedule of medical services--uniform through the U.S. for Medicare and Medicaid.
3) Doctors and Clinics will be paid a uniform rate per Patient visit not to exceed a Weekly, bi-Weekly, or Monthly remuneration level set by Bluebook schedule, whereas after payment of this amount; Doctors, Clinics, and Hospitals are considered Employees of Medicaid, or Medicare, and must provide medical aid for all Said Patients whatever their final number. lgl
Monday, May 09, 2005
Oil Refineries--A National Security Issue?
No New Refineries in 29 Years? There Might Well Be a Reason
By JAD MOUAWAD
Published: May 9, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/09/business/09refinery.html?
More refining capacity will almost certainly be needed. Gasoline demand is forecast to rise 39 percent by 2025, to 12.9 million barrels a day, up from today's 9.3 million barrels, according to a long-term outlook by the Energy Information Administration. By then, gasoline alone will account for nearly half the crude oil consumed in the United States.
There exists much illusion in the Above statement, as current Crude Oil pumping could not accommodate such a large increase, combined with a projected reduction in the driving Population by 2025. It stands as no exaggeration to say We are lacking in sufficient Oil Refining capacity. George W. Bush suggested turning some of the closing Military bases into Oil Refineries. This does not adequately resolve the Issue.
Author's Proposal:
A Presidential declaration that lack of Oil Refining capacity is a National Security Issue. This to be combined with a direct proposed Bill to Congress requesting Nine Oil Refineries to be built and supervised on active Military bases, with the capacity to produce 3 million barrels of Gasoline or Heating Oil per day. These Oil refineries are to be owned by the Government, who can direct the supply of Fuels to the Military or other necessary Government tasks, but will be leased to the Private Sector, and will be allowed to provide excess capacity to the Private market. The Leasee must pay a Rent sufficient to pay the Cost of Capital equipment amortized, but will receive an Contractual price for supply to the Government maintained within 10% of current Private Sector market price for equivalent Product.
The National Security activation negates necessity for State and Local Permits etc. for Emissions standards, and reduces Federal Permits to a minimum. Government construction of the facilities circumscribes the development of Private Sector concentration of Capital to build the capacity. It is not good from a Big Government involvement in Private industry; it simply accomplishes construction of necessary refining capacity. lgl
By JAD MOUAWAD
Published: May 9, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/09/business/09refinery.html?
More refining capacity will almost certainly be needed. Gasoline demand is forecast to rise 39 percent by 2025, to 12.9 million barrels a day, up from today's 9.3 million barrels, according to a long-term outlook by the Energy Information Administration. By then, gasoline alone will account for nearly half the crude oil consumed in the United States.
There exists much illusion in the Above statement, as current Crude Oil pumping could not accommodate such a large increase, combined with a projected reduction in the driving Population by 2025. It stands as no exaggeration to say We are lacking in sufficient Oil Refining capacity. George W. Bush suggested turning some of the closing Military bases into Oil Refineries. This does not adequately resolve the Issue.
Author's Proposal:
A Presidential declaration that lack of Oil Refining capacity is a National Security Issue. This to be combined with a direct proposed Bill to Congress requesting Nine Oil Refineries to be built and supervised on active Military bases, with the capacity to produce 3 million barrels of Gasoline or Heating Oil per day. These Oil refineries are to be owned by the Government, who can direct the supply of Fuels to the Military or other necessary Government tasks, but will be leased to the Private Sector, and will be allowed to provide excess capacity to the Private market. The Leasee must pay a Rent sufficient to pay the Cost of Capital equipment amortized, but will receive an Contractual price for supply to the Government maintained within 10% of current Private Sector market price for equivalent Product.
The National Security activation negates necessity for State and Local Permits etc. for Emissions standards, and reduces Federal Permits to a minimum. Government construction of the facilities circumscribes the development of Private Sector concentration of Capital to build the capacity. It is not good from a Big Government involvement in Private industry; it simply accomplishes construction of necessary refining capacity. lgl
Sunday, May 08, 2005
Budget Options and the Military
CBO
Budget Options
February 2005
http://mirror1.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/60xx/doc6075/050.pdf
This Analysis provides good insight into restructuring of the Military. The Future Combat System should be canceled for various reasons:
Inability to Achieve Function: The Joint Chiefs and Staffers imagine a battlefield reducible to a Computer screen, where everything can be controlled from one Playstation. If it were only true! An integrated Response system will always fail in the face of an Enemy composed of Thousands of individual attack elements. The FCS will crumble under an onslaught of individual initiative, as the integrated Command response will over-commit defense elements initially, to be followed with Refuel and Rearm Time lags before efficient Counter of Enemy action.
The Folly of Target Evasion Doctrine: High Command assume an Enemy emasculation before actual Combat even starts. An Enemy will utilize any Weapon delivery system which is effective: Viet Cong used to send small children to GIs with armed Grenade attached. FCS envisions $90 bn of equipment which can be neutralized by methodology costing less than the Salaries of the enlisted personnel manning the inferior equipment.
The Weight Issue: The weight of the vehicles will never be reached, if the Target Evasion Doctrine is proved to be ineffective. This means actual Force Delivery Times will stay consistent with current Unit Movement Time schedules; not necessarily a poor performance element, it allows for Political and Command assessment of the initial Unit Movement decision, and development of specific Tasking for the Units. Unit Movement Costs and Transportation needs will be understood with necessary components scheduled.
=======================
Author's Counter-Proposal to the FCS
Creation of Five new Divisions of mobile Light Infantry, supported with new Weapons systems. Extensive use of UAVs to locate the Enemy, a varied array of 'Smart' bombs released at high altitude from something resembling a B-52 upon call from the Infantry(individually) , said Infantry equipped with 'Hand-held' Targeting capability to direct the Smart bombs. The Infantry will be transported to battle by helicopters (heavy) capable of transporting a Platoon of Infantry with their extremely light ground vehicles. lgl
Budget Options
February 2005
http://mirror1.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/60xx/doc6075/050.pdf
This Analysis provides good insight into restructuring of the Military. The Future Combat System should be canceled for various reasons:
Inability to Achieve Function: The Joint Chiefs and Staffers imagine a battlefield reducible to a Computer screen, where everything can be controlled from one Playstation. If it were only true! An integrated Response system will always fail in the face of an Enemy composed of Thousands of individual attack elements. The FCS will crumble under an onslaught of individual initiative, as the integrated Command response will over-commit defense elements initially, to be followed with Refuel and Rearm Time lags before efficient Counter of Enemy action.
The Folly of Target Evasion Doctrine: High Command assume an Enemy emasculation before actual Combat even starts. An Enemy will utilize any Weapon delivery system which is effective: Viet Cong used to send small children to GIs with armed Grenade attached. FCS envisions $90 bn of equipment which can be neutralized by methodology costing less than the Salaries of the enlisted personnel manning the inferior equipment.
The Weight Issue: The weight of the vehicles will never be reached, if the Target Evasion Doctrine is proved to be ineffective. This means actual Force Delivery Times will stay consistent with current Unit Movement Time schedules; not necessarily a poor performance element, it allows for Political and Command assessment of the initial Unit Movement decision, and development of specific Tasking for the Units. Unit Movement Costs and Transportation needs will be understood with necessary components scheduled.
=======================
Author's Counter-Proposal to the FCS
Creation of Five new Divisions of mobile Light Infantry, supported with new Weapons systems. Extensive use of UAVs to locate the Enemy, a varied array of 'Smart' bombs released at high altitude from something resembling a B-52 upon call from the Infantry(individually) , said Infantry equipped with 'Hand-held' Targeting capability to direct the Smart bombs. The Infantry will be transported to battle by helicopters (heavy) capable of transporting a Platoon of Infantry with their extremely light ground vehicles. lgl
Complement Goods
The Author was looking around for something to write about today(a very non-Newsworthy sunshine for Mothers' Day), and decided to run through a little theory. Complement Goods are those Goods which reinforce each other's usage, whether used in tandem, or One facilitates the use of the Other. Products which are seemingly unrelated can express a correlation when external factors create a shortage of one Product, and another Product suffers constriction in normal Sales.
A City, where the Author had lived for over twenty years, has just gone Non-Smoking (the Author smokes, so the Reader can understand all Positions). It simply joined a long list of Cities and Towns. All initial economic Reports assert little loss of Patronage in Public Places from such a Smoking Ban. Later economic Reports do not exist because they present the socially-unacceptable alternate Picture. Bar, restaurant, and Coffee shop patronage has fallen in Number, and in the Dollars transferred per patron. What has been the effect?
Coffee and Cigarettes go together. Folgers or Hills Brothers was sufficient back in the day when Smoke curled through the air. Latte permeates instead of Smoke in the Coffee shops and restaurants today. Customers are significantly less, and they are charged much more (this Author bought his first cup of Coffee for a Dime). Labor Preparation Cost per cup of Coffee ascended to a professional fee Cost, plus the reduced Patronage, has brought a cup of Coffee to an average $3-4, depending on where you have a quick cup of Coffee; Time having quadrupled to get said cup filled. The Author will not expound on Bars, except to say a Bartender looks blank if you ask for bourbon and Branch. He wants a clear American drink demanded, like a Mai Ti or an Excalibur. All part of America today. lgl
A City, where the Author had lived for over twenty years, has just gone Non-Smoking (the Author smokes, so the Reader can understand all Positions). It simply joined a long list of Cities and Towns. All initial economic Reports assert little loss of Patronage in Public Places from such a Smoking Ban. Later economic Reports do not exist because they present the socially-unacceptable alternate Picture. Bar, restaurant, and Coffee shop patronage has fallen in Number, and in the Dollars transferred per patron. What has been the effect?
Coffee and Cigarettes go together. Folgers or Hills Brothers was sufficient back in the day when Smoke curled through the air. Latte permeates instead of Smoke in the Coffee shops and restaurants today. Customers are significantly less, and they are charged much more (this Author bought his first cup of Coffee for a Dime). Labor Preparation Cost per cup of Coffee ascended to a professional fee Cost, plus the reduced Patronage, has brought a cup of Coffee to an average $3-4, depending on where you have a quick cup of Coffee; Time having quadrupled to get said cup filled. The Author will not expound on Bars, except to say a Bartender looks blank if you ask for bourbon and Branch. He wants a clear American drink demanded, like a Mai Ti or an Excalibur. All part of America today. lgl
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