New Home Sales had back-to-back heavy drops. Preowned Home Sales showed a big increase, but this can be seen as basic Tax avoidance; grabbing a Mortgage before May 15. This Author has been expecting a decline in the Construction industry for the last Three years, and I may finally be seeing it. One Economics blogger has recently suggested We keep track of Predictions, so We can laugh at the ludicrous---luckily for myself, it is not up and working yet!
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2006/03/reading-report-on-durable-goods-orders.html
Kash at Angry Bear has a nice Post on Durable Goods. I do not take a dim a view on the growth of Capital Goods, they being no greater than in 1998 without Transportation and defense spending, because I remember 1998 was not a relatively recessive Period. The piece still gives a wonderful entry into the worries associated with these numbers.
A further rise in the basic Fed rate will be counterproductive, not retarding Inflation with raging Oil price increases, and constricting Business operating budgets. New Orleans cannot seem to get the Levies finished, though there has been more than enough Money spent; it is too bad Money is not getting to other rebuilding efforts. I have heard that Mount St. Helen's does not want to stay dormant. Winter did not want to come, and now it doesn't seem to want to leave, developing a lot of Cleanup Costs in the MidWest. None of this sounds very bad, but Tornado and Hurricane seasons are about to arrive. GM has a problem deciding what to get rid of, and for what Price; the final Decisions will impact all of America, especially the Consumers if Engineering staff is denuded--We need an alternative to the SUV. This Author fears for the economy, even if there is not flatout disasters. lgl
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