The WTO estimates World Trade should be up about 7% over last year, when it was up a revised 6% from the preceding year. China Minister claims that the China-U.S. Trade imbalance of $102 billion last year was because of U.S. restriction on High-Tech Sales to China, and that foreign-owned companies made up 59+% of the Imports to the U.S. Oil settled to $68.10/barrel on the Spot markets.
World Trade depends upon the American Consumer, it is sad to say. The Question which must be asked: Can the American Consumer endure a worse year than 2005? This Author believes that the Answer is No! Continued Imports by American Retailers will continue the stagnation in Pay for eighty percent of American labor, while rising Energy Costs alongside a rising Commodities markets will accelerate the American Consumer's financial incapacity.
2005 was probably the Watershed Year of World Trade. There may a lot of Years which come close to duplicating the Trade Values of 2005, but it is unlikely actual Trade volume will ever equal 2005 in tonnage hauled. One must realize We have started to lose more Drivers every year than are obtaining Drivers' licenses. This means less Fuel purchases each Year into the future. Federal and State regulations are pushing for higher MPGs, and Ethanol will continue to cut Oil Imports, though not drastically. Reduced Trade, itself, will reduce Energy consumption. Higher Materials Cost overall will incite greater Domestic production to avoid the potential high Cost of Theft and Transport security. Spreading World ecological standards will make foreign production higher in Production Cost, while expanded foreign production will begin to entail much higher Energy Transportation Costs to Production areas. We will never see the Trade volume of 2005 again, and probably will not even witness the Dollar value of 2005 Trade in a couple of years. lgl