What caught this Author's eye immediately this morning was the data on the New York Fed Factory Index. Then later I read Testa at Midwest Economy
April 17, 2006
Testa wrote that while the Midwest manufacturing was doing better, it was still the worst hit of all areas due to the concentration of industry. The New York area, though, is not less concentrated than the Midwest, and Energy Costs are to some degree more expensive--especially the manufacturing sources of Energy. The large drop in the New York Factory Index was attributed to lack of Orders and Reorders. Did I forget to mention that Oil hit the $70/barrel Pricetag again?
One almost-friendly Economist once told me he liked my Predictions, as they always seemed to signal an upturn in the Economy; but I think I will try it once more. This Prediction states that the high Energy Costs are starting to hit with a vengence, and hitting Manufacturing the worst, as it does in the initial phase. The Tourist Trade is likely to grind to a halt, with the bad numbers first alarming towards the middle of June. Watch the Construction numbers which will start pouring bad Stats by the end of May, if new Contracts do not rise substantially. This Author will be searching frantically for May numbers on Intermediate Hauling, which say much more on the state of the Economy than simple Inventory stockpiles. There may be no pickup in tonnage hauled, and if this is the Case, it is DEFCON Three. lgl